Banking on black voters to resuscitate his failing campaign, 77-year-old former Vice President Joe Biden hoped he had a lock on the black vote. But with African American voters looking at the primary landscape, they’ve split their vote with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) who’s surpassed Joe with 28.7% of the national vote, with Biden sinking to only 17.3%, a whopping turnaround from less than a month ago when Joe had 29.1% Jan. 24. Biden’s spectacular fall after leading the crowded field of Democrats candidates since announcing his run April 25, 2019 shows no signs of a turnaround. Name-recognition helped Biden in the early months of the campaign but has disappeared now that voters have sized him up over the last 10 months. Biden’s campaign and debate appearances lack the excitement needed to win the Democratic nomination, something that looks like it’s Bernie’s for the taking.
Biden’s fourth place finish in Iowa’s Feb. 3 caucus and a worst fifth place finish in New Hampshire’s primary Feb. 10 was no fluke, with voters turning away from Biden. Biden left New Hampshire early to head to South Carolina hoping, as he says, that more diverse voters will help bail him out Feb. 29. But Joe’s poor performance in Iowa and Nevada has turned Nevada’s Feb. 22 caucus into a lock for Bernie. Biden wants to be the “comeback kid” like former President Bill Clinton did in 1992 but it’s not in the cards. Today’s NBC/Wall Street Journal’s poll indicates that African American voters are split between Biden and Sanders, with those numbers fluid once Sanders wins the Nevada caucus. Biden hoped, because of his eight years with former President Barack Obama, that he’d have a lock on the black vote. Watching Biden lose in Nevada could pull even more black votes from Joe.
African American voters account for about 20% of Democrat primary voters in the 2020 race. Losing more black votes to Bernie dooms Biden in South Carolina where’s he’s hanging onto a slim lead with eight days to go. Biden had trouble getting his message out Feb. 19 at the NBC debate in Las Vegas. Looking hesitant and groping for words, Biden looks old heading into Nevada and South Carolina. If he loses South Carolina, he may not make it to Super Tuesday March 3 where he was suppose to mop up delegates. Biden’s lost votes to 77-year-old former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, whose poor debate performance gave Biden some hope. But with Bloomberg running constant ads, it’s unlikely that a poor debate showing would derail his candidacy. Bloomberg polls in third place nationally at 15%, only two percent back of Biden one day before the Nevada caucus.
As Bernie took over first place in the polls, he’s taken 29% of the black vote, once thought it was all going to Biden. Biden’s only got a two percent edge on Berne at 31%, a figure that could drop with another brutal loss in Nevada. It’s almost certain that Biden will lose more ground if he loses Nevada tomorrow, putting South Carolina in play for Bernie. Democrat Party leaders have been thrown for a look, hoping, like 2016, they could pick the next nominee. Party officials shouldn’t have been too surprised by Bernie’s performance since he have former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton a run for her money in 2016. Ultimately, DNC Party insiders, led by 53-year-old former DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, prevailed. If Bernie continues to win primaries, it’s going to be difficult for the DNC to give the nomination to any other candidate, even in brokered convention.
Of the remaining Democrat candidates, only Biden and Sanders gets any mileage from black voters. Sen. Elizabeth Warrant (D-Mass), Sen. Amy Klobushar (D-Minn.) and former South Bend, Indian Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-Id.) poll very poorly with black voters. “These are difficult numbers for Pete Bulligieg and Amy Klobushar as regards their standing in the African-American community,” said GOP pollster Bill Mcintuff for Public Opinion Strategies. With black enmity running high for 73-year-old President Donald Trump, black voters would vote for anyone but Trump. Black voters are no different than any other group, voting for candidates seen a winners. Biden’s poor showing in Iowa and New Hampshire have driven away all voters, including blacks, heading into Nevada. One more crushing loss and Biden could watch his presidential bid die in South Carolina.
Biden’s in a do-or-die situation heading into Nevada. With Nevada all but lost, a poor showing like Iowa and New Hampshire, could spell the end of his 2020 campaign. Once thought the inevitable Democrat nominee, Biden’s fallen from grace is not only due to his age and low energy. When Republicans made a case against him and his 50-year-old sone,Hunter at the impeachment trial, voters got cold feet, switching their allegiance to Sanders. Counting on “diverse” voters was always a sketchy strategy for Biden, knowing that he must win Latino and White voters to capture the Democrat nomination. It’s difficult to make a case to voters when you’re at the losing end of Democrat caucuses and primaries. Biden’s no longer seen by voters as the best option to run against Trump. While there are reservations in the Party about Bernie, he’s the only candidate that generates excitement in the race.
