Blackmailing the European Union to continue buying oil from Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatened to start enriching uranium outside compliance with the terms of the July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPA] AKA “The Iranian Nuke Deal.” President Donald Trump cancelled U.S. involvement in former President Barack Obama’s signature legislation May 8, 2018, handing Iran $16 billion in cash and $150 billion in sanctions relief in exchange for Iran suspending its uranium enrichment program. Obama and former Secretary of State John Kerry convinced the European Union [EU], Russia and China that the international community must stop Iran from working on a nuclear bomb by getting Iran to stop enriching uranium. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, parroting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned the EU that if an agreement to buy Iranian oil was not completed by July 7, then Iran would start enriching again.
Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency spokesman Bahrouz Kamalvandi said Iran’s enrichment could reach 20% or more, enough to create fissile material needed for an A-bomb. Signatures on the 2015 JCPA, including the U.K., France, Germany, Russia and China, are worried about U.S. sanctions, prohibiting oil sales with Tehran. Iran’s 59-uyear-old U.S.-educated Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told the press June 10 that the U.S. was at “economic war” with Iran, no different than military confrontation. Two days later, Iran planted magnetic Limpet mines and detonated them on Norwegian and Japanese oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. When Zarif talks about “economic war,” he believes Iran’s within its rights to lash out at the U.S. or its allies for re-imposing punitive economic sanctions. Khamenei and Rouhani are demanding world powers flout U.S. economic sanctions on Iran.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said today that the U.S. would guarantee safe passage through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. “If we are prevented from using it, we will close it,” said Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] Alireza Tangsiri April 22, chief of naval operations only two weeks after Trump designated the IRGC a terror group. When you look at the big picture, last weeks tanker bombing was no accident, especially while Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made an historic visit to Iran. Abe visited the Ayatollah and Rouhani to help defuse tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Ayatollah Khamenei reportedly told Abe Iran would not negotiate with the U.S. while under any pressure. Khamenei insisted that the U.S. sanctions must stop, returning to the JCPA to consider any talks. Iran still thinks it’s calling the shots in the Persian Gulf, when, in reality, U.S. sanctions are wrecking Iran’s economy.
Escalatiing Persian Gulf tensions, Trump expects to get Iran back to the bargaining table to reconsider its decision to ramp up uranium production. While Iran vehemently denies work on an A-bomb, there’s no other reason to ramp up uranium enrichment other than to weaponize fissile material. Threatening to restart uranium production was Iran’s tactic to get Obama to agree to sanctions relief and billions in cash for the deal. Trump cancelled the deal because Iran continues its proxy war against Saudi Arabia, arming Yemen’s Houthi rebels to fire missiles and use Iranian-made predator drones to attack the Kingdom. When explosive laden drones hit Saudi oil pumping stations May 14, there’s now question about Iranian involvement. Now the EU, Russia and China want more proof over Iran’s involvement in the June 13 explosive attacks on oil freighters in the Gulf of Oman
Iran’s proxy attacks on Saudi oil pumping stations and tankers in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oamar mirrors Iran’s war against the U.S. and its allies. Zarif made it clear June 10 that Iran considered itself at war with the United States. Whether Trump accepts it or not, Iran has compromised U.S. national security in the Persian Gulf. While Trump wants to avoid military conflict with Iran, he can’t allow the Houthi’s proxy war and current threats to continue in the Persian Gulf. “If this condition continues, there will be no deal,” said Kamalvandi, referring to Iran ending its commitment to the JCPA, restarting its uranium enrichment program. While Khamenei and Rouhani have spurned Trump’s overtures to talk, Iran’s malign activities have pushed the region to the brink. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres worries about escalation but does nothing to reign in the Iranian government.
Khamenei and Rouhani know that Trump’s not going to return to the JCPA, knowing that Iran’s actively engaged in a proxy war through Houthi rebels against Saudi Arabia. Abu Dhabi is at the end of its rope with Tehran, bullying Gulf nations by letting its IRGC blow up tankers, interfering with international commerce. “The current situation is very critical and France and other parties to the [deal] still have a very limited opportunity to play their historic role for saving the deal,” Rouhani said on his website. Unlike the U.S., the EU is more dependent on cheap Mideast and Russian energy. France would like to continue to buy cheap Iranian crude oil but knows the consequences under the U.S. sanctions routine. EU officials know that Iran has destabilized the Mideast and North Africa, looking for a way to force Iran’s compliance. If Iran ramps up uranium enrichment, Trump can’t ignore it too long.
