Calling Russia’s move to send military planes to Caracas a “reckless escalation, the U.S. State Department warned the Kremlin to stop trying to prop up the socialist regime of 56-year-old Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. President Donald Trump recognized 35-year-old opposition leader Juan Guaido Jan. 23 as the interim leader of Venezuela, calling on Maduro to step down. Guaido’s calls for Maduro to step down have fallen on deaf ears, while Maduro consolidates power, arresting Guaido’s chief of staff Roberto Marrero in the middle of the night. Trump warned Madero March 14 not to arrest Maduro or anyone in his inner circle. Now that that line was crossed, Trump’s done nothing since the secret police snagged Marrero, sending the wrong signal to Moscow. So far, the message to Moscow is the U.S. will do nothing in response to Maduro’s crackdown on Guaido.
Unless Trump responds quickly—and forcefully—to Maduro’s crackdown in Caracas, Maduro will be emboldened to declare martial law in response to U.S. threats to invade the country. “The United States condemns Russia’s deployment of military aircraft and personnel to Caracas, which is another contradiction of both Nicolas Maduro’s and Russia’s calls for non-intervention in Venezuela and is a reckless escalation o the situation,” said an unnamed State Department spokesman. So far, the U.S. has done nothing to deter martial law in Venezuela. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said today that the U.S. would not sit by while Moscow deploys military personnel to Caracas. Yet the risks of U.S. military intervention far outweigh the benefits since Guaido has not delivered on his promise to open up a humanitarian aid corridor into the country from Brazil or Columbia.
Fresh off his victory in the Mueller investigation, Trump doesn’t want to commit U.S. forces to regime change in Caracas. No matter how repressive or incompetent the Maduro government, Trump isn’t likely to commit U.S. blood-and-treasure in Venezuela without Guaido demonstrating he has the Venezuelan people behind him. Guaido left Venezuela in early March to gain support from other South American countries, promising to return to break Maduro’s crackdown on the border. U.S. and European Union sent tons of food-and-medicine to the impoverished country to help offset widespread shortages of vital supplies. Guaido clamed he had the people behind him to remove barriers set up by the Maduro’s military to prevent humanitarian relief from entering he country. So far, Guaido has been all talk when it comes to a peaceful revolution against Maduro.
With Hamas firing rockets into Israel, Trump doesn’t need a large scale military operation in Venezuela. While declaring himself as National Assembly leader interim president, Guaido has no military backing to force Maduro out of office. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made Venezuela a test case like Nikita Khrushchev did in 1962 when he sent intermediate range nuclear missiles in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Putin’s been playing a global game of chess, preserving, if not expanding, socialist influence in the Western Hemisphere. If the Truman Doctrine still applied, Trump would be obligated to counter Putin’s move in Venezuela. With bigger fish to fry, Trump sees no organized insurgency behind Guaido to replace Maduro anytime soon. When Trump said “all options are on the table” in Venezuela Jan. 23, he was trying to put pressure on Maduro to call for new elections.
Trump’s problem intervening in Venezuela stems from Guaido’s lack of popular support and lack of military backing for his revolution. No matter how many Western democracies back Guaido, unless he controls the Venezuelan military, his chance of chasing Maduro out are slim-and-none. Russia’s presence on the ground in Venezuela reminds the U.S. that it has no plans on abandoning a Russian-style communist dictatorship in South America. Russia wholeheartedly backs Venezuela and Cuba, both Latin American socialist states loyal to the Kremlin. “Such cynacism on the part of a country like the United States,” tweeted Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza. “[With] a g rowing military budget of $700 billion, it seeks to interfere with the technical military cooperation programs between Russia and Venezuela,” suggesting that the U.S. meddles in Venezuela’s internal affairs.
Calling Russian military presence “a harmful act to Venezuelan sovereignty,” the Organization of American States [OAS], urged Russia to get out. Russia insists its in Venezuela for maintenance of military equipment, not protect Maduro’s regime. Whatever the reason, Russia’s presence deters U.S. military intervention. Without Guaido showing that he’s got the people and military behind him, it’s not likely Trump would commit U.S. troops to loosen Maduro’s grip on power. Trump’s economic sanctions continue to hurt the government but there’s no end in sight to the Maduro regime. Trump’s and his inner circle are celebrating the end to the Special Counsel’s Russian meddling and alleged Trump Russian collusion. Now that Trump’s been cleared on both counts by Mueller, he has no plans to start another foreign war, especially without any benefit to the U.S.
