Turkey’s escalation against the Syrian Kurds in Afrin poses real problems for U.S. foreign policy going forward. With former President Barack Obama supplying arms-and-cash to 71-year-old Syrian Kurdish Leader Massoud BarzanI for nearly six years, no one expected Barzani’s Peshmerga fighters to succeed in pushing the Islamic State out of Iraq and Syria {ISIS]. Obama made the mistake of backing various Syrian rebel groups under the name of Syrian Democratic Forces, largely backed by Saudi Arabia. For over six years, Obama gave U.S. arms-and-cash to Saudi-backed rebels to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Started by Saudi Arabia during the Arab Spring March 15, 2011, the proxy war was ended by President Donald Trump who no longer backed ousting al-Assad. Since taking office Jan. 20, 2017, Trump focused on defeating ISIS, not on getting rid of al-Assad.
Trump continued to back Syrian Democratic Forces comprised of Syrian Kurdish Protection Units [YPG]. Once ISIS was evicted from Raqqa, Aleppo and other strongholds, Barzani declared independence for Iraqi Kurds Sept. 26, 2017, holding a referendum over objections by U.S. Special State Department Envoy Brett McGurk. McGurk backed the Kurds, especially the YPG militia used by the U.S. as its boots on the ground in Syria. McGurk urged Barzani to hold off on independence, believing Iraq’s government led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi was not prepared to cede oil-rich Mosul or any other territory to the Kurds. When al-Abadi sent the Iraq military to Mosul to evict the Kurds Oct. 17, 2017 Barzani resigned in disgrace Oct 29, 2016. Barzani’s resignation had wide broader implications for Kurdish ambitions in the region.
Considered a mortal enemy by Turkey, who’s been at war with the Kurdistan Workers Party [PKK], McGurk saw the collision course of NATO ally Turkey, who showed no tolerance for the Kurdish YPG, no matter how much backed by the U.S. “The U.S. has tried to walk a fine line in Syria,” said former FBI counterterrorism expert Ali Soufan, now head of an independent consulting group. “As the battlefield shrinks in Syria, the line has become near impossible to maintain,” meaning, the presence of the YPG on the Syrian border has become a national security threat to Turkey. While the U.S. has high regard for the Kurds, especially for their role in defeating ISIS, they can’t ignore Turkey’s concerns on its northern border. Showing a pivot in White House policy on the YPG, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson acknowledged Turkey’s concerns about terrorism near its border.
However much arms-and-cash the U.S. supplied the Kurds to fight ISIS, McGurk has conveyed to the YPG they must retreat from positions that threaten Turkey on its norther border. Turkey has the backing of Russian President Vladimir Putin who could give the green light at any time to wipe out the YPG with air strikes. Since joining the fight against the Free Syrian Army or Syrian Democratic Forces in Syria Sept. 30, 2015, Putin decided to challenge Obama’s backing of the six-year-old Saudi proxy war. Russia’s relentless air campaign against Saudi-backed Syrian rebels fighting al-Assad eventually defeated the six-year-old Saudi proxy war. Putin succeeded in beating back Obama’s proxy war against al-Assad, keeping him in Damascus for the foreseeable future. Trump didn’t want the proxy battle with Russia, instead pulling the plug on Syrian Democratic Forces.
Turkish President Recp Tayyip Erdogan convinced Putin that the YPG was exploited by the U.S. to keep a foothold in Syria. Defense Secretary Gen. James Mattis insists that the U.S. presence in Syria, either through the Special Forces or the YPG, is about preventing ISIS from regrouping. Putin has reassured U.S. officials that it Syria forces, with Russian and Iranian support, won’t let ISIS regain any foothold in Syria. Trump’s realized that, unlike Russia and Iran, the U.S. isn’t in Syria at the request of Damascus. It didn’t take much for Erdogan to enlist Putin in making U.S. presence in Syria more untenable, especially close to the Turkish border. McGurk has put the YPG on notice that the U.S. can no longer supply in arms-and-cash to keep a permanent presence. Defeating ISIS—not Kurdish independence—was the only military objective the U.S. had in Syria.
Trump’s national security team, including Tillerson, Mattis and National Security Adviser Gen. H.R. McMaster recognize that the U.S. mission in Syria is no longer viable. Backing the YPG militia runs counter to U.S. national security, pitting the U.S. against Russia and Turkey. While the U.S. has sympathy for the Kurds, it can’t betray longstanding NATO alliances, especially with Turkey. Putin wants the U.S. role in Syria confined only to limited operations to prevent ISIS from regrouping, something unlikely as al-Assad’s army asserts control over Syria’s sovereignty. With the seven-year-old Saudi proxy war all but dead, it’s time for Trump to rethink the U.S. role in Syria. Without an invitation from al-Assad, the U.S. operates in Syria without approval from the sovereign government. With ISIS no longer a threat, the U.S. completed its mission in Syria
