by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright December 30, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

oing down to the wire, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) appears to have dodged the bullet, heading into the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses with a small, but significant, 4-point lead, according the latest Reuters/Zogby poll. What's significant is a reversal in momentum for her closest rival Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.), gaining over 20% since mid-November when Hillary looked invincible. While Hillary's lead remains slight, her relentless message about Barack's lack of experience seems to be working. When former Prime Minister and Pakistan opposition leader Benazir Bhutto succumbed to an Islamic assassin, her death and resulting chaos benefited Clinton. For weeks, she's been attacking Barack's youth-and-inexperience, prompting her husband, former President Bill Clinton, to call Obama “a roll of the dice.” Bhutto's murder reminds voters about the necessity of foreign policy experience.

      Both Hillary and Bill pounded Obama on the campaign trial, only four days before Iowans pick their candidate. “I think that my experience is unique, having been eight years in the White House, having, yes, been part of making history,” Clinton told ABC News. Her message seems to resonate with voters who are beginning to get second thoughts about the first-term Illinois senator. Obama was criticized by Clinton and other Democratic and GOP candidates for saying Aug. 1 he'd go after Osama bin Laden in the lawless tribal areas of Pakistan, with or without Musharraf's blessing. Now that Bhutto's gone down, voters grow wary about precipitous actions. While Obama has countered that Hillary did not sit in on Bill's National Security Council, she's still perceived as more experienced. Obama has emphasized that common sense and judgment is more important than experience.

      Since the New York Times discounted Hillary's White House experience, she and Bill have presented a relentless, single message. “I had direct access to all of the decision-makers. I was briefed on a range of issues, often provided classified information,” said Hillary, disputing the idea that she lacked national security experience because she didn't attend briefings. Bhutto's assassination helps Hillary makes the sale in Iowa where voters mirror the nation's anxiety about terrorism and national security. Barack's suggestion in the July 24 debate that he'd meet face-to-face with Iran, Syria and other rogue states was met with criticism and disdain. Hillary called it “naïve and irresponsible,” implying Obama didn't have a clue when it came to foreign policy and national security. Four days before Iowa, the Clintons exploit recent world events to gain political advantage.

      Talking about Sept. 11, Bill Clinton raised the issue of critical presidential decision-making on the campaign trail. “You have to have a leader who is strong and commanding and convincing enough . . . to deal with the unexpected,” said the former president, warning voters to think twice before throwing their vote to a political and foreign policy novice. “There's a better than 50 percent that sometime in the first year of 18 months of the next presidency, something will happen that's not discussed in this campaign,” said Bill, reminding voters that terrorist and the potential for another Sept. 11 remains an realistic possibility. Both Clintons are “swiftboating” Obama, driving the inescapable truth that whoever becomes president will have to hit the ground running. Given the Iraq War, Afghanistan, brinkmanship with Iran, national security trumps domestic policy.

      Too much swiftboating put Obama on the defensive, justifying his background as a community activist, Illinois state senator and four-year stint as a U.S. senator. Raising questions about Barack's readiness for president opens doubts in some voters concerned about terrorism and national security. President George W. Bush raised similar doubts about Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry in 2004, forced to defend his Vietnam War record. With the race too close to call in Iowa, voters will lean toward the most stable commodity, most likely Hillary. “I would simply point out that the same arguments that are being made about me were made about him [Clinton] back in 1991 and 1992, trying to counter Hillary's criticism about his lack of experience. Four generations of GOP presidents advising President Bush dating back to Richard Nixon caused some of the biggest miscalculations in the nation's history.

      Hillary's closing argument on the campaign shows remarkable consistency, painting Barack as naïve and inexperienced. Swiftboating Barack as not ready for prime time prevents him from closing the sale to voters. When Jan. 3 rolls around, voters will think twice about voting for someone not yet ready to deal with the nation's next foreign policy and domestic challenge. Bhutto's death also benefits GOP candidates like Sen. John McCain, whose journeyman service on the Senate Armed Services Committee prepares him to meet the next foreign policy and national security challenges. Hillary only prays that she doesn't match up against McCain in the general election. Hillary heads into Iowa with the right kind of momentum, poised for a needed victory to propel her five days later into New Hampshire. Like Kerry in '04, Barack should have responded sooner.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

©1999-2005 Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.
(310) 204-8300
All Rights Reserved.