Iran Eyes Nuclear Deal as Economy Unravels

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright December 24, 2014
All Rights Reserved.                                     

                When U.S. officials agreed to extend the deadline for nuclear talks with Iran by seven months, the P5+1, including the U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany, gave Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif a welcomed reprieve.  Sinking under the weight of U.N. sanctions, Iran’s Gross Domestic Product has continued to shrink to minus four percent, leaving Iranians little financial relief.  When you add crashing oil prices now approaching $55 a barrel, Iran’s economy continues to run down hill.  While Iran insists its nuclear program is for domestic energy production and medical isotopes, the West believes it’s trying to enrich military grade fissile material.  After the 10th round of disarmament talks ended in failure Nov. 18, the P5+1 agreed to an extension Dec. 17, giving Iran seven more months to reach a final nuclear deal.

             Led by 54-year-old Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif, the P5+1 know that all decisions come from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  Khamenei has rejected Western attempts to contain Iran’s growing uranium enrichment program, well on its way, according to nuclear experts, to making weapons grade uranium.   Begun under the Shah Mohammad Reza Palavi March 7, 1957 under former President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace Program,” the nuclear program continued after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei’s Islamic Revolution evicted the Shah Feb. 11, 1979, leaving the Iran’s nuclear program in the hands of revolutionaries.  When Ali Khamenei took over Iran after Khomenei’s death June 3, 1989, he showed no interest in accepting the U.N’s Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] to perform unfettered nuclear inspections.

             Faced with a deteriorating economy because of sanctions and plunging oil prices, Zarif has begun to sing a different tune about the outcome of nuclear talks.  Once thought unthinkable, Tehran has begun to send signals that it’s willing to compromise.  “I am confident that a comprehensive agreement is imminently within reach,” Zarif wrote in a letter published by the Foreign Ministry.  Without the IAEA gaining access to Iran’s sensitive nuclear sites, it’s difficult to estimate the extent of military applications.  As far back as Feb. 20, 2009, the IAEA estimated that Iran had enough weapons grade material to build a nuclear bomb.  While the West insists that Iran continue to work toward a bomb, there’s no evidence other that speculation by the U.S. and especially Israel that continues to see Iran as an existential threat.  Without proof of weaponized uranium, speculation runs rampant. 

             Once former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threatened to “wipe Israel off the map” in 2005, Israel and the U.S. haven’t trusted Iran’s nuclear intent, especially promises about enriching uranium for peaceful purpose.  Pakistan’s chief nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan once told the world Pakistan enriched uranium for “peaceful purposes.”  We all know what happened May 28, 1998 when Pakistina detonated its first nuclear bomb, declaring itself against IAEA objections as a nuclear power.  Khan viewed the A-Bomb as the great equalizer with its archenemy India.  Nuclear experts wouldn’t be surprised when Iran detonates its first bomb.  Working hard to get a deal with Iran, Secretary of State John Kerry knows the stakes of a nuclear-armed Iran.  If ran goes nuclear on President Barack Obama’s watch, Democrats would have decades to pay for a major foreign policy failure.

               Getting sanctions relief is on Iran’s priority list now that the oil price plunge has gutted its major revenue stream.  No longer with the luxury of robust petroleum markets, Iran must play ball with the P5+1 or face a severe recession in 2015.  “It requires foresight, political will and recognition of realities by our negotiating partners as well as the audacity to make the right choice benefiting the entire global community,” said Zarif, borrowing a catch-phrase and title of Obama’s 2006 “The Audacity of Hope.”  Zarif wants all parties to compromise, respecting Iran’s rights under the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, allowing it to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.  Had Ahmadinejad not threatened Israel in 2005, the world would not hammer Iran on its nuclear enrichment program.  With economic sanctions hitting hard, it looks like the Ayatollah is ready to deal.

About the Author 

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.