by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright December 23, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

printing the finish line, presidential candidates try to close the sale before the Jan. 3 Iowa Caucuses. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) reminds voters that change only comes about through experience while her chief rival Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) insists that the country needs a fresh start. Clinton attempts to reduce her 49% disapproval rating, the strongest among all presidential candidates, whether Democrat or Republican. Her problems stem from some residual Clinton fatigue, where the country was fed up with how Bill Clinton's affair with Monica Lewinsky and legal problems with Paula Corbin Jones dominated the headlines during the waning years of his presidency. Hillary's failed attempt at health care reform also reminds voters about the bitter partisanship that racked the Clinton years, a real concern should Hillary become the next president.

      Hillary and Bill have hammered away at Barack's youth-and-inexperience, leading Bill to characterize Obama as “a roll of the dice.” “When I'm president, we're not going to have to work so hard to help families take care of their children and their parents while they work,” said Hillary at a campaign stop in New Hampshire. While slipping in Iowa, Hillary still enjoys a commanding lead in New Hampshiure, where Obama's hasn't closed the deal. Tightening polls in Iowa don't mean that Obama will pull it out. Iowa is far more important for Obama's campaign to give him momentum heading into New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan. Hillary can lose Iowa and still win in New Hampshire, working her way toward Super-Tuesday, Feb. 5, where California, New York, New Jersey and other delegate-rich states cast votes for a grand prize of 2,075 delegates.

      On the Republican side, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee turned the GOP race upside down, overtaking front-runner former N.Y. mayor Rudy Giuliani at least in Iowa. Whether Giuliani's recent setbacks translate into an opportunity for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) or any other GOP candidate remains uncertain. Giuliani still banks on winning New York, Texas and California. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney still holds a lead in New Hampshire, raising doubts about whether Huckabee can succeed outside Iowa in states like California and New York. Chosing to bypass Iowa and New Hampshire, Giuliani hopes to clean up on Super-Tuesday, launching himself back into the lead, assuming more bad press doesn't hurt him. If Romney and Giuliani falter on Feb. 5, it's going to give McCain a legitimate shot at the 1034 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination.

      Obama has given Hillary a run for her money in Iowa largely because to two mistakes on the campaign trail. When she planted questions at a town hall meeting on Nov. 10 and then again at the Republican debate on Nov. 29, Obama jumped into the lead. No one knows how to assess the difference between polls and eventual voting on Election Day. With the race within the statistical margin-of-error, the voting still favors Hillary. “I must say you're like an early Christmas present for me—there's so many here and you're in such good humor and it's so early in the morning,” said Bill Clinton, believing that Hillary will pull out Iowa. Obama still hasn't completely unsettled Hillary's air of inevitability in Iowa or elsewhere. Christmas and New Years interferes with the campaigns, preventing candidates from changing too many minds between now and Jan 3.

      Only a few days left before Christmas, GOP candidates are blasting Huckabee hoping to slow down his current momentum. When Huckabee criticized the White House for its “arrogant bunker mentality,” the Party establishment lashed out. “The idea that somehow this is a go-it-alone policy is just ludicrous,” said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, defending White House policy. Former Iowa front-runner Mitt Romney questioned Huckabee's record on law-and-order and taxes, comparing him more to Bill Clinton than conservative Republicans. Romney knows that if he loses Iowa, he could find himself slipping in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan. Huckabee has been trying to broaden his appeal talking about health care, the plight of workers, the price of energy, hunger and poverty, the environment and other issues monopolized by Democrats.

      Colliding with destiny, candidates lash out hoping to influence voters before the first votes are cast in Iowa. Lashing out too much might backfire, tilting an otherwise tight race in the wrong direction. Stepping up attacks against Huckabee won't to turn things around for the multimillionaire, former Massachusetts governor. He's caught in Iowa and the South with Christian evangelicals driving the primaries, not inclined to support someone of the Mormon faith. Lashing out at Huckabee won't change too many minds in Iowa or elsewhere. On the Democratic side, Hillary continues to hammer away at Barack's youth-and-inexperience, hoping to consolidate her formidable lead in national polls. Instead of going negative, candidates would be better off reminding voters why they should get their votes. With only a few weeks left, getting ugly tells a lot more than candidates would like.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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