NKorea Kim Jong-Il's Death Rattles Markets

by John M. Curtis
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Copyright December 19, 2011
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                Proving North Korea remains the most secretive regime on earth, news of 70-year old Kim Jong-Il’s death sent markets reeling, uncertain how to digest his 27-year-old son Kim Jong-Un’s ascension to the Stalinist throne.   Inheriting Supreme Leader of NKorea from his father Kim il-Sung in 1994, Kim Jong-Il ruled N-Korea with an iron fist for 17 years.  No one knows much about how Kim Jong-Un will rule, much less about N-Korea’s hostile relationship with Seoul or whether the young Jong-Un will continue to bedevil the West ramping up the communist state’s nuclear weapons program.  Judging by edgy world markets, there’s uncertainty of whether NKorea will switch gears, become less secretive, more cooperative and join responsible nation-states.  Kim Jong-Il’s NKorea was a thorn in the U.N.’s side, whose extreme militarism threatens WW III on the Korean Peninsula.

            Uncertainty abounds whether the 27-year-old will serve as a figurehead only or whether he’ll really call the shorts.  Unlike his entrenched Stalinist father, Kim Jong-Un has the capacity to bring NKorea out its dire straits into the modern world of cooperation with the South.  South Korean President Lee Mung-bak, whose country enjoys abundant prosperity, remains open to reunification.  With the N-Korean economy in shambles, relying heavily on Chinese largess, Jong-Un will have to decide whether to follow in his father’s footsteps, one of intimidation, isolation and confrontation.  Detonating nuclear bombs gets the West’s attention but not its respect.  Younger generation rulers, like Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, no matter how well educated—don’t always make wiser leaders.  World markets fear Jong-Un’s extremist tendencies might destabilize the peninsula.

            Since the shaky armistice was signed July 27, 1953, the two Koreas have been at war with a demilitarized zone along the 38th parallel maintaining a tenuous ceasefire.  Like a tale of two cities, the contrasts could not be starker between the two Koreas.  S-Korea has become one of the world’s industrial giants, rivaling the U.S., Japan and Germany, boasting the world’s 15th largest economy at over$ 1 trillion, 485 billion as compared to NKorea, ranked 90th with a GDP of $28 billion.  If Jong-Un can push beyond his father’s paranoia and find more cooperative ways with the South, he can bend the course of history.  “There’s a rumor that he’s married, but officially we don’t know,” said Yoon Deok-ryone, a NKorea economics expert at Korea Institute for International Economics in Seoul.  No one knows anything about Jong-Un other than Pyongyang’s slick propaganda.

            No one can confirm NKorea’s official propaganda that Jong-Un graduataed from Kim Il Sung Military University, speaks several languages including English, has proficiencies in science and technology, deifying Jong-Un and stretching plausible deniability to the breaking point.  Judging by Jong-Un’s appearance, he has his father’s penchant for French champagne and Russian Beluga Cavier, when the N-Korean Workers’ Part lives on rice and muddy fish soup.  “Even though Kim Jong-Un has been appointed as the successor, they may form a committee to rule the country first,” said Yoon.  “His power is not completed yet, question whether there’s still a power struggle among Jong-Il’s sons and relatives.  Jong-Il’s sister’s powerful husband, Jang Song Thaek, was demoted by Jong-Il in 2004 but remains a force to be reckoned with behind the scenes.

            South Korea’s Yonsei University Graduate School of International Relations Professor John Delury believes it’s too early during Jong-Il’s mourning period to draw conclusions about N-Korea’s leadership.  “The question will be what’s the role of Jang Song Thaek,” said Delury, hinting that some sort of junta will eventually emerge with Jong-Un emerging as a figurehead.  Whoever leads N-Korea’s estimated 1.2 million man military, it’s a force to be reckoned with, especially after successfully testing nuclear weapons in October 9. 2006 and May 25, 2009.  NKorea is believed to have 6-8 nuclear weapons with 4,000 kilometer ballistic missile range.  SKorea expressed grave concerns about NKorea’s reckless use of atomic power, leaving the prosperous South vulnerable to a first nuclear missile strike.  Any change of leadership opens the floodgate of Western anxiety.

            Kim Jong-Il’s death was much-awaited but uncertain, especially how it affects global security.  If Kim Jong-Un reverts to his father’s Stalinist ways, the impoverished regime should remain more secretive and repressive.  There’s no evidence that Jong-Un has any intention of reunification, a national goal of Korean families since the country cleaved along ideology lines in 1953.  While no one knows for sure Jong-Un’s plans, the Internet and cell-phones have grown more popular.  Those people [young generation] will be running the country in coming decades,” said Narushige Michishita from Tokyo’s National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, seeing instability ahead.  With the Intenet giving NKoreans a peak at the outside world, it’s a matter of time before the young generation casts off the Stalinist yoke. Until then, Kim Jong-Un should heed calls for eventual reunification.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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