South Korea Calls North Korea's Bluff

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright December 19, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                                

            Calling North Korea’s bluff, South Korea resumed live-fire exercises on Yeonpyeong Island, after the North threatened all-out war.  South Korea dispatched fighter jets to preempt North Korean President Kim Jong-Il from another unprovoked attack.  When North Korea struck with an artillery barrage Nov. 23, two South Korean marines and two civilians lost their lives, not to mention millions in property damage.  Two days later, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young resigned in disgrace with President Lee Myung-bak warning Kim Jong-Il that more aggression would result in massive retaliation.  Russia and China urged South Korea to avoid further provocation by going ahead with live-fire drills.  South Korea’s decision to go ahead with live-fire military exercises calls Kim’s bluff, putting the Korean Peninsula the closest to war since the end of the 1953 Korean War.

           Shelling Yeonpyeong Island was preceded six months ago by an unprovoked North Korean torpedo attack of a South Korean warship, killing 46 sailors.  North Korea continues to deny the attack, despite convincing forensic proof.  U.N. Security Council met in emergency session to try to defuse tensions putting the two Koreas on a collision course toward resuming the old conflict that ended with a ceasefire armistice, not a formal peace accord.  Back then, North Korean fought a proxy war for Mao Zedong’s Communist China supplying 926,000 troops in addition to North Korea’s 260,000.  When the war ended in 1953, drawing the new border at the 38th parallel, over 182,000 Chinese had lost their lives.  While China is North Korea’s closet ally, the Chinese Communists want no part in defending the North today.  China believes Kim has pushed the peninsula to the brink.

            Some fancy 11th-hour diplomacy by former U.N. ambassador and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson managed to get North Korea to suspend retaliatory measures against South Korea’s live-fire exercises.  “It appears that deterrence has been restored,” said Daniel Pinkston, Seoul-bases analyst with the International Crisis Group.  “The North Koreans only understand force or shows of force,” explaining the flip-flop on using force on Myung-bak’s threat of massive retaliation.  While it’s tempting to draw conclusions, it’s possible China, North Korea’s main regional ally, signaled that Pyongyang would go it alone without China’s support in any confrontation with Seoul.  North Korea has a long-standing pattern of aggression, pushing tensions to the brink, then backing down when granted economic concessions.  Kim knows when it’s time to fold or throw down his cards.

            Since shelling Yeonpyeong Island Nov. 23, the world was growing increasingly nervous about resuming the fragile ceasefire that marked the end to the Korean War.  While the North battled with China’s help the U.S. and South Korea to a virtual standoff, all indications point today to China no longer interested in fighting Kim’s battles with the West.  While Richardson’s visit to Pyongyang probably didn’t hurt, the real reason for Kim backing down probably involved China’s quiet message.  Chinese President Hu Jintao most likely told Kim he couldn’t count on China’s support if he resumed the 57-year-old conflict. Without China’s backing, despite North Korea’s vaunted military, Pyongyang would go down quickly with U.S. and South Korea’s superior air power.  North Korea likes to threaten the South that has far more to lose economically in any military confrontation.

            North Korea’s Kim Jong-Il has honed his blackmail skills over the years and isn’t likely swayed by anything U.S. diplomats have to say.  “We had positive results,” Richardson told the press about his meetings in Pyongyang, talking about Kim’s apparent change of heart with respect to retaliation.  “This is the way countries are supposed to act,” said State Dept. spokesman P.J. Crowley, hinting that U.S. diplomacy helped to avert a crisis.  Kim’s been through this before and knows exactly how far and when to push for concessions.  South Korean defense analyst Baek Seung-Joo cautioned about reading too much into Richardson’s visit.  He noted that the lack of formal announcements from the state-run media indicates that Kim continues play a dangerous game of chicken.  Without a formal announcement from the North Korean government, all bets are off.

            Kim Jong-il continues to play the Western press to his advantage while he grooms his youngest son Kim Jong-un as his successor.  Attacking South Korea Nov. 23 established his 26-year-old son as the heir apparent.  Kim Jong-Il’s decision to suspend further military action buys the reclusive leader more time while he continues to blackmail the West for more concessions.  China’s Hu Jintao wants no part of another bloody war with the West where China lost some 180,000 soldiers.  Washington wants U.N. inspections and more concessions on North Korea’s secretive nuclear weapons program.  China’s threat to veto in the U.N. Security Council resolution condemning North Korea’s aggression helped get Kim to back down.  Kim backed down not because of deterrence but because China signaled it would not support militarily any resumption of the Korean War.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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