by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright December 19, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

ormer Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's meteoric rise from obscurity in the 2008 GOP primary race threw top-tier candidates for a loop, especially front-runner former N.Y. Major Rudy Giuliani. In only a few weeks, Huckabee, the amusing, plain-spoken former Southern Baptist preacher, has turned the GOP race upside down, with a little over two weeks until Iowa. Huckabee's appeal goes beyond evangelicals, as evidenced by his rise in national polls, trailing Giuliani now by only 1%. Erasing an 18% deficit is bad news for Giuliani, whose campaign hit the skids when he was forced to explain questionable security charges for his then mistress Judith Nathan, now his wife, while N.Y. mayor. When you add to that Giuliani's former business partner former N.Y. Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik indicted for conspiracy, mail and wire fraud and lying to federal investigations, it was bad news.

      Iowans haven't embraced what the Republican National Committee thought would be the second coming of Ronald Reagan with former Sen. Fred Thomson (R-Tenn.) entering the race. While conservative and well-rehearsed, Thomson lacks the energy, warmth and fire seen in Huckabee, making him an instant hit in the Hawkeye state. “Huckabee is on a roll, he has gotten an enormous amount of publicity and he is doing very well with conservatives, who at least for now, appear to have found a candidate,” said pollster John Zogby, accounting for Huckabee's moon-bounce. Where Giuliani and Thomson seem well-choreographed, Huckabee seems authentic and down-to-earth. Picking up 18% in national polls shows that Huckabee plays well outside of Iowa. If Huckabee takes Iowa Jan. 3, he's going to have unstoppable momentum heading into New Hampshire.

      Giuliani's sudden fall from grace stems directly from Kerik and bad press about questionable expenses as N.Y. mayor. His unequivocal support of Bush and the Iraq war gives Iowans pause, not seeing how things would be different under Giuliani. Sen. John McCain only hopes that Giuliani's freefall benefits him, when big-city voters sober up and realize they won't vote for a Christian evangelical. Giuliani prays he can pick up some big states, like California, on Super Tuesday Feb. 5, where the nation's most delegate-rich states cast their ballots. Huckabee hopes he can broaden his appeal beyond religious conservatives, a promising trend in recent polls. Unlike Giuliani and McCain, Huckabee hasn't been reluctant to criticize President George W. Bush. With the economy reeling and people fed up with Iraq, Huckabee shows an independent streak criticizing Bush.

      If the GOP stands any chance in the general election, the nominee will have to acknowledge Bush's problems. So far, Giuliani, Romney, McCain and Thomson have rubber-stamped Bush's policies, especially on the economy and Iraq. Huckabee showed courage characterizing Bush's foreign policy as “arrogant bunker mentality has been counterproductive at home and abroad,” drawing clear distinctions between himself and other GOP candidates. “I think Gov. Huckabee made a significant error in insulting the president as being subject to an arrogant bunker mentality,” said Romney told a crowd in Davenport, Iowa. “I disagree with that. I think the president is a man who has acted out of a desire to do what is right for America,” said Mitt, showing exactly why it's not his Mormonism that dooms his candidacy. Voters appreciate candidates that show candor and say what's so.

      Unlike Romney, Giuliani, McCain and Thomson, Huckabee stepped out line and distinguished himself from the group. All GOP candidates know that Bush's 30% approval ratings include the same voters they solicit in Iowa. Huckabee showed he's his own man criticizing the president. “I don't apologize for that because I think that when we're engaged in the world, we need to make sure that even if we call people to join a multilateral approach to fighting terrorism, if they don't do it on our terms we don't say that they're with the enemy. That's a dangerous position to take,” said Huckabee, recognizing the untenable position the White House has taken in the war on terror. Criticizing Bush isn't only reserved for Democrats but Republicans with guts enough to acknowledge 70% of voters frustrated with Bush's foreign and domestic policy. Huckabee figured that out.

      Huckabee's jump in the polls is no fluke but based on a combination of charisma and careful political calculations. He's well-aware of Bush-fatigue, leaving 70% of voters seeking change in 2008. Rubber-stamping the Bush's policy is no way to win the Republican nomination in 2008. Voters responded to Huckabee, and in no small way to GOP candidate Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), precisely because they challenged Bush's foreign and domestic policy. Candidates like Giuliani, Romney, McCain and Thomson offer more of the same, hoping, without any basis, that Bush's former base will somehow return. Thirty-percent approval ratings tell a convincing story of frustration and disillusionment. Huckabee is rewarded for being himself, speaking his mind and distinguishing himself from the clones that refuse to accept reality: Voters seek real change in 2008.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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