by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright December 18, 2002
All Rights Reserved.

eeing the handwriting on the walls, former Vice President Al Gore pulled the plug on another presidential run, surprising supporters and detractors alike. After winning the popular vote by 500,000 in 2000, but shamefully losing his home state of Tennessee, Gore announced there will be no rematch in 2004 with President George W. Bush, throwing Democrats for a loop. "I've decided that I will not be a candidate for president in 2004," said Gore on CBS' "60 Minutes." Three days earlier, Gore appeared on "Saturday Night Live" in a hot tub, rehabbing his "stiff" image that dogged him during the 2000 campaign. Since going into seclusion after the election, Gore resurfaced during the midterm elections, shaved his scraggily beard and took pot shots at Bush's economic and foreign policies. While Gore said he could contribute more from the sidelines, in reality he got a cool reception from Democratic fundraisers.

      Gore's departure opens the door for several wannabe candidates, including his past running mate Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.), decorated Vietnam vet Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), outgoing Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-N.D.), telegenic Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.), former House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-St. Louis), health care expert and physician Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and even New York activist Rev. Al Sharpton.—none of whom emerge as conspicuous front-runners. "Al Gore was the best vice president America ever had. He would have been a fine president had history taken a different course two years ago," said former President Bill Clinton, alluding, of course, to the Supreme Court's controversial five-four vote to end manual recounts. But history also records Gore's paralyzing taint from Clinton's unending shenanigans.

      Recent polls showed Gore running 20 points behind Bush, suggesting that another presidential run wouldn't be competitive. Few key Democrats expressed regret or surprise over Gore's announcement. Political operatives inside the White House were forced to rethink the 2004 race. "I thought it would be a fools errand, but he's probably figured it out," said senior White House advisor Karl Rove, expressing some regret about what would have been a slam-dunk in 2004. Prevailing wisdom had Bush winning handily in a rematch with Gore. Many Democratic insiders thought Gore—an incumbent vice president—should have easily prevailed against a less politically savvy Bush in the last presidential election. Though easily forgotten, Gore couldn't galvanize enough excitement across a wide swath of Democratic and crossover voters. Had African Americans and Hispanics been more enthused—as they were with Clinton—Gore might have picked up enough Electoral College votes.

      Gore's protracted disappearance after the 2000 election didn't help matters, giving voters the impression that he was still licking his wounds. After Sept. 11, Bush seized the opportunity, scoring huge points for speaking out eloquently against terrorism and for beefing up national security. By the time Gore returned to politics, Bush's stature eclipsed the former vice president, making him look even less presidential. Even so, Gore was still the front-runner and odds on favorite to become the next Democratic nominee, despite his shortcomings. It's easy to forget Gore's bumbling campaign, replete with fits and stops, not to mention his charismatically-challenged personality, leaving party faithful uninspired. Now that he's bailed out, there's some residual nostalgia but few Democrats will miss Gore's message, sometimes seen as too Ivy League to command much popularity.

      Looking ahead, it's possible that Gore might be taken out of mothballs, perhaps in 2008 when Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) plans to break another glass ceiling and run for president. "Well, you know, never say never. But I make this decision in the full knowledge and awareness that if I don't run this time . . . that's probably the last opportunity I'll ever have to run for president," said Gore, admitting that he's giving up a lifelong ambition. Son of U.S. senator from Tennessee, raised in Washington, educated in elite prep schools and a graduate of Harvard, Gore was groomed for the top slot in the federal establishment. His decision to scuttle a childhood dream doesn't come easily. "I don't know what accelerated the decision," said Gore's brother-in-law and best friend Frank Hunger, pretending that Gore's decision was difficult to figure out. With Clinton and Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McCauliffe controlling the purse strings, Gore was squeezed out.

      Gore's decision to bail out had nothing to do with his desire to spare the electorate another banal repetition of the 2000 election. Hobbled by Clinton's scandals and his lack of charisma, recent polls painted a dismal picture—at least for now. Spending more time with Tipper and the grandkids also didn't play into Gore's decision. "At the end of the day, he was just very, very happy," said an unnamed family friend, finding a silver lining to Gore's fateful choice. In truth, Party bosses signaled that the moola wouldn't flow into his war chest anytime soon. Looking for new blood, the Democratic Party knows that it has an uphill battle trying to unseat an incumbent president with over 60% approval ratings. While anything's possible, barring an unexpected third-party or independent run from someone like Sen. John McCain (D-Ariz.), or an unforeseen catastrophe between now and 2004, any Democratic candidate faces a steep climb to the White House.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's a consultant and expert in strategic communication. He's author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

©1999-2002 Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.
(310) 204-8300
All Rights Reserved.