Obama Blows Smoke on Afghanistan

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright December 16, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                                

             Expressing hope about Afghanistan, President Barack Obama shared cautious optimism about his scheduled timetable for an orderly withdrawal beginning next summer.  Recent declassified intelligence estimates indicate that the war hasn’t gone as planned, presenting problems for the somewhat murky mission.  Since former President George W. Bush began Operation Enduring Freedom Oct. 7, 2001 in the wake of Sept. 11, the mission involved capturing key members of al-Qaeda and the Taliban.  When al-Qeda chief Osama bin Laden, his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri and Taliban chief Mullah Mohammed Omar escaped Tora Bora Dec. 15, 2001, the mission changed to stabilizing a new government and preventing a Taliban takeover.  Touting a new 5-page White House review “noting operational gains,” Barack touted his 30,000-man troop surge as producing results.

            Insisting that U.S. forces were making progress halting Taliban and al-Qaeda momentum, Barack made a case for continuing the withdrawal timetable slated for next July.  “I want to be clear, this continues to be a very difficult endeavor,” said Barack at the White House.  “We’re on track to achieve our goals,” insisting on tangible progress toward improving conditions for U.S. troops.  While it’s easy to take credit for progress, it’s also possible that Taliban fighters have taken a more passive strategy, preferring instead to fight the U.S. more obliquely with more disguised and dispersed guerrilla warfare.  Casualty rates have quintupled since Barack announced a troop surge last December.  Nearly 700 coalition forces have been killed in 2010,  477 of whom Americans.  U.S. officials have reservations about Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s willingness to confront the Taliban.

            White House officials, including Defense Secretary Robert Gates, expressed optimism about the year-old troop surge making progress interrupting the Taliban insurgency.  Quintupling U.S. casualties can’t be seen as real progress.  No matter how you spin it, the U.S. continues to take a beating in Afghanistan.  Optimistic White House assessments seem more related to raising the public’s expectations for a scheduled exit strategy next July.  White House officials are hard-pressed to define the Afghan mission other than keeping the Taliban from toppling the Karzai government.  With Karzai’s ties to his Pashtun tribe in Taliban-rich Kandahar and his family’s ties to Afghan’s opium trade, it’s no wonder Obama has had some tense moments.  Since the troop surge last December, the Taliban has scattered within Kandhar’s civilian population, putting the U.S. mission in doubt.

            Progress can’t be measured by the frequency of Taliban attacks in the dead of winter, when the guerrilla war goes into partial hibernation   “Buried in the summary is the acknowledgement of two significant challenges for the stabilization effort, the continuing Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan and the poor quality of governance in Afghanistan,” said Vanda Felbab-Brown, an analyst with the Washington-based Brookings Institution.  All objective assessments point to a mission impossible in Afghanistan.  “I think we’re clear-eyed and realistic,” said Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, rejecting suggestions that the administration presents an overly optimistic picture.  Hillary’s reluctance to admit the uphill battle shows political posturing.  “In fact, both issues remain enormous obstacles to success,” said Fellab-Brown, dousing White House happy talk.

            Looking at the big picture, the U.S. lost its mission Dec. 15, 2001 once Bin Laden and Omar fled to Pakistan.  Predator drone attacks aren’t enough to disrupt al-Qaeda and Taliban operations in the ungoverned Pakistan lands along the Afghan border.  Karzai refuses to cooperate with U.S. efforts to go after his Taliban family ties in Kandahar.  Despite outright fraud in Karzai’s August 21, 2009 election, the U.S. continues to support the 53-year-old Afghan president with known ties to opium trade.  Today’s mission has little resemblance to Bush’s Operation Enduring Freedom when the U.S. had a real stake in getting Osama bin Laden.  It’s difficult today to justify the continued loss of U.S. lives for a corrupt dictator.  With the damage already done to the U.S. economy, there’s little face-saving claiming a successful mission before the U.S. begins withdrawing troops next summer.  

            There’s no moral high ground in Afghanistan continuing to support a corrupt dictator that works at cross purposes to the U.S. military’s mission against the Taliban.  Because the Taliban and al-Qaeda’s command and control is based in Pakistan, the current U.S. mission in Afghanistan can’t be accomplished.  Stabilizing Karzai’s government isn’t enough reason to continue the loss of U.S. lives and further damage to the U.S. economy.  Karzai’s own forces, that the U.S. expect to defend his government when U.S. forces finally withdraw, have more loyalty to the Taliban than the U.S. military.  Spending $113 billion a year in Afghanistan is more than the U.S. expects to spend on national health care.  U.S. war casualties and damage to the U.S. economy can’t be used as excuses to continue the mission.  They must instead, given Afghan’s government, be reasons to get out.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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