Obma's Next Political Move

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright December 10, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                                

              Seeking former President Bill Clinton’s advice at the White House, President Barack Obama hoped to map out his next move in what promises to be a contentious debate on continuing the Bush tax cuts.  Obama correctly got the message from the drubbing on Nov. 2, asking him, as he promised as a candidate in 2008, to play ball with Republicans.  His first two years in office deferred to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and his former Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, all of whom drove a highly partisan Democratic agenda.  Barack’s attempt to grant his GOP colleagues a continuation of Bush’s tax cuts helps him build more bipartisanship, whether or not it rattles his party’s liberal base.  If Barack hopes to win back crossover and independent votes for his reelection in 2012, he needs to “triangulate,” just like Clinton did with welfare reform in 1996.

            Clinton’s win in 1996 was helped again by Texas billionaire H.Ross Perot, who conveniently siphoned off GOP votes from presidential candidate former Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.).  Barack doesn’t know yet whether the lady luck will bring him a bull market and improving economy, helping Clinton’s reelection in 1996.  Unlike 1994, Barack has a far weaker economy in 2010, demanding more heroic life-support measures.  Since the GOP dominated House rejects further bailouts, tax cuts certainly can’t hurt an economy stuck in neutral with an anemic 2.5% Q-3 growth rate.  Apart from any attempt at triangulation, it’s far more important for Obama to find some common ground with Republicans.  Whether continuing the Bush tax cuts add to the deficit or not is anyone’s guess.  If the GOP’s right, tax cuts should provide more stimulus, grow the economy and reduce budget deficits.

            Obama doesn’t need Clinton’s advice, he needs his support to twist Democrat arms in Congress to back the new tax plan.  “He greatly values their candid advice and want to keep the conversation, I think, appropriately private,” said White House spokesman Robert Gibbs.  Bringing Clinton to the White House should send a message to Democrats that they shouldn’t make too many waves about supporting the GOP tax plan.  It’s more important to get a continuation of unemployment benefits for 2 million unemployed workers slated to expire at year’s end.  Quibbling over estate taxes or increasing taxes to millionaires or billionaires picks the wrong battle.  During the lame-duck session, Obama must show he can play ball with the GOP.  If continuing the tax cuts fail to improve GDP, then it can be revisited again at some point.  More tax cuts show a commitment to economic growth.

               Heading into the New Year, Obama must set the agenda, beating the GOP to the punch on issues that matter most to voters.  His focus on continuing Bush’s tax cuts demonstrates Barack’s commitment to growing the economy and reducing unemployment.  With his approval ratings lingering at around 46%, he’s not too far off on the upside for where he needs to be running for reelection.  Any slight improvement in the economy and prospects of winding down wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2011, should bump up his numbers.  When current House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio) takes the reins from Pelosi in January, Barack needs to start out on the right foot.  Handing the GOP a victory on tax cuts gives Obama more leverage in the next congressional session.  Obama needs Clinton to help get Capitol Hill Democrats on the same page.

            Barack has a real opportunity in 2011 to finally wind down wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.  They’ve both usurped the U.S. economy and made it difficult to make progress on the consumer economy.  With hot spots emerging in North Korea and Iran, Barack’s foreign policy must pivot away from Bush’s old baggage that continues to drag down the economy.  Whether Barack prevails on ending “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” it won’t win him more crossover or independent voters in 2012.  Voters want to see Barack deliver on his 2008 campaign promise of more bipartisanship and less gridlock.  When he let Pelosi, Reid and Emanuel drive his agenda, especially with health care, crossovers and independents lost faith in his leadership.  Getting Democrats to buy in to more tax cuts should help Barack prove he’s capable to governing from the middle.  More fights with the GOP send the wrong message.

            Barack’s new political agenda should acknowledge the Nov. 2 election and move toward the political center.  He should work with the GOP on revising his health care reform package, proving, it’s more important to have some bipartisan consensus than to railroad a purely partisan agenda.  Barack doesn’t need Clinton’s advice as much as his help to convince Democrats on Capitol Hill to back the new tax plan.  If Democrats support more stimulus, they should also support more tax cuts during a time of economic stagnation.  While tax rates were higher when the economy boomed in the late ‘90s, that doesn’t mean that they’d be good now.  Back then, a fledgling tech industry helped push the stock market to new heights, generating unprecedented capital gains revenue and welcomed budget surpluses.  Obama should discuss with Clinton how to duplicate those feats today.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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