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Afghan's Quagmire

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Opening up to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Centcom Commander Gen. David Petraeus, who headed the “successful” 2007 Iraq surge, provided sober testimony about the prospects for victory in Afghanistan. Calling the road more treacherous, Petraeus painted a different picture than President Barack Obama when he announced Dec 1, after nearly three months of deliberation, that he would add 30,000 more U.S. troops on top of the 21,000 he approved in March. Barack was most optimistic when he set an early timetable for withdrawal in 2011. Signaling an opposite assessment, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said today that he needed U.S. forces for the next 20 years, assuring that the U.S. will go the way of the now extinct Soviet Union. Unable to place a price tag or real timetable, Petraeus admitted the mission would be uncertain and costly.

Announcing a new counter-terrorism strategy, Petraeus cautioned against unrealistic expectations. “There’s no question you’ve got to kill or capture those bad guys that are not reconcilable,” Petraeus told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, unsure whether he meant command-and-control of al-Qaeda or the Taliban. Since the early days of Operation Enduring Freedom, began Oct. 7, 2001, the U.S. military and Afghan forces let Osama bin Laden and Taliban’s one-eyed Mullah Mohammed Omar, escape from Tora Bora on motorcycles into the no-mans-land of Pakistan, where they currently have safe-haven. Warning that the Afghan mission would get “harder before easier,” Petraeus caustioned against expecting the same results as Iraq, where various tribal leaders, war lords and former Saddam loyalists were paid off to end affiliating with al-Qadea and other terrorist groups.

Petraus shared his strategy openly about “reintegrating” more cooperative elements of the Taliban into the current Afghan government. He had no answer for how Karzai expects to reconcile corrupt elements within his own government that have made deals with virtually every criminal element in Afghanistan, including al-Qaeda, the Taliban and the notorious opium trade, the country’s most profitable industry. Unlike Iraq, there’s no oil at stake, only opium poppies capable of humane medical applications and, simultaneously, supplying the world’s heroin trade. “In fact, we actually will be increasing our counter-terrorist component of the overall strategy,” deferring to his on-the-ground commander Gen. Stanley McChryrstal, who led the Army’s Delta Force to turn the corner in Iraq. While the U.S. no longer plays a risky combat role, 127 civilians died today in Baghdad bomb blasts.

Unlike Petraeus, McChrystal speaks optimistically about his great success in Iraq, paying off insurgents to stop battling the U.S. military. Petraeus warned of increased casualties as the mission penetrates into Taliban strongholds. Since the Afghan war began, only 925 U.S. soldiers lost their lives, averaging less than 10 deaths a month. Since the March troop surge, casualty rates have quintupled, averaging about 70 a month, though dropping unexpectedly in November to about 30. “You cause the network to collapse on itself,” McChrystal told PBS’s Charlie Rose. “And that’s what I saw happen in Iraq, and that’s one of the thing we’re working on in Afghanistan,” mentioning nothing about the spate of recent bombings in Iraq that threaten to undermine past progress. Unlike Iraq where, thanks to Saddam, a more secular population exists, Afghanistan prefers a fundamentalist Islamic government.

Ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) astutely questioned whether McChrystal’s “counter-terrorism” strategy really deals with al-Qaida’s and the Taliban’s command-and-control centers in Pakistan. When the U.S. military and allied forces make their presence known in Taliban-controlled areas of Afghanistan, the Taliban will recede into the civilian population. “The risk is that we will expend tens-of-billions-of-dollars fighting in a strategically less important Afghanistan, while Taliban and al-Qaida leaders become increasing secure in Palkistan,” Lugar noted. Obama’s new strategy sounds too reminiscent of former President George W. Bush, whose preoccupation in Iraq gave al-Qaida and the Taliban safe-haven in Pakistan. Petraeus expects more bloodshed next spring when the coalition forces resume their battle.

Obama’s optimistic forecast about an early Afghan exit strategy in 2011 seems inconsistent with testimony by Centcom Commander David Petraeus. “Certainly, it is going to be years before they can handle the bulk of security tasks and allow the bulk of our troopers to redeploy,” said Petraeus. Known as a straight shooter, there’s nothing sugar-coated about Petraeus’ assessment, warning about expecting the same results as Iraq.. Other than going after Taliban and al-Qaida in Afghanistan, Barack failed to specify a real change in strategy, especially dealing with the lawless Pakistan border region believed home to Osama bin Laden and Mullah Mohammed Omar. Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) shared Lugar’s concern that spending untold billions and spilling more blood in Afghanistan doesn’t deal with al-Qaida and Taliban command-and-control in Pakistan.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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