by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright December 4, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

ompleting its latest gyration, the White House praised a new National Intelligence Estimate indicating Iran stopped its nuclear weapons programs in 2003, a bizarre twist considering the 2005 NIE warned Iran was feverishly developing an A-bomb. For the last year, President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have hyped the Iranian nuclear threat, insisting all options were on the table to stop Iran from building an A-bomb. Bush and Cheney's full-court PR-press against Iran paralleled its blitzkrieg during the run up to the Iraq war, pushing then Secretary of State Colin L. Powell sell the White House case against Saddam Hussein to the U.N. Security Council Feb. 5, 2003, only five weeks before Cruise missiles hit Baghdad. Powell presented “irrefutable” evidence that Saddam possessed mobile germ weapons laboratories—all turned out to be false.

      For at least a year leading up to the Iraq war, the White House sold the public on Saddam's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. Scores of White House experts testified before Congress and on national TV that Saddam possessed chemical weapons and was dangerously close to producing an A-bomb. Careful inspection after the Iraq invasion proved that Saddam had no WMD on which the White House went to war. Nearly 4,000 U.S. casualties and close to a $1 trillion tax dollars have been spent on the Iraq war with no end in sight. On Sept. 26, the Senate voted to declare Iran's Revolutionary Guards a terrorist group, paving the way for possible military action. Today's NIE throws cold water on White House plans to confront Tehran's covert nuclear program. No one knows for sure what the Iranians plan to do with freshly enriched uranium.

      Publishing the new NIE signals that the Bush administration has backed down from its saber-rattling, and, in all likelihood, will not confront Tehran militarily during 14 months left in Bush's term. Bush ruled out a change of policy, threatening air strikes unless Tehran suspends its nuclear enrichment program. Iranian President Ahmadinejad insisted that Tehran won't stop enriching uranium, no matter what the outside pressure. “The U.S. and its allies should accept nuclear rights of the Iranian nation. There is no other way of course,” said Ahmadinejad, slapping the U.S. after months of idle threats. While the NIE says Iran ended its active nuclear weapons program in 2003, it doesn't say its current uranium enrichment program won't lead to weapons grade uranium. Iran now uses the NIE as proof that the U.S has no right to pressure Tehran into giving up the nuclear fuel cycle.

      Pushing for more U.N. sanctions won't be easy with the latest NIE. Iran can make the case that the U.S. bullied other Council members to go for sanctions otherwise regarded as unfair and unnecessary. “I think the council member will have to consider that, because I think we all start from the presumption that now things have changed,” said China's U.N. ambassador Wang Guangya, reluctant, even before the NIE report, to impose more sanctions on Iran. Russian and China have strongly resisted White House pressure to impose tougher sanctions, partly because they didn't trust the credibility of U.S. claims. Doubts still linger about the U.S. case against Saddam Hussein in which the White House wound up with egg on its face. While there's nothing in the NIE report to indicate that Iran won't try to reprocess enriched uranium, the U.S. has a much weaker case for more sanctions.

      Bush spent his political capital on Iraq and Afghanistan, no longer holding sway domestically or overseas. When Bush engages in gunboat diplomacy, the price of oil jumps over fears of a possible Persian Gulf confrontation. With oil hitting nearly $100 a barrel before Thanksgiving, the U.S. economy can't tolerate another major jolt from an incident in the Middle East. Mohammed ElBaradei, head of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog group, the International Atomic Energy Agency, was encouraged by the NIE report, urging all sides to “enter without delay into negotiations.” Ahmadinejad now has more leverage to continue, as he calls it, pursuing the “nuclear fuel cycle” for peaceful purposes. “Peaceful purposes” to Ahmadinejad involves building an A-bomb to keep the U.S. and Israel from attacking. He believes there's no better deterrent to outside aggression than nuclear weapons.

      Only a few weeks ago Bush warned the world that a nuclear-armed Iran would lead to WW III. He and Cheney have suggested that the only thing worse than military action is a nuclear-armed Iran. Former Centcom Commander, four-star Gen. John P. Abizaid said Sept. 17 that the U.S. could live with a nuclear-armed Iran. While no one wants Ahmadiejad to get the bomb, the U.S. must stop saber-rattling and work constructively with other members of the Security Council. Only a multilateral approach can deal with Tehran's recalcitrance. “We expect that your programs in the nuclear sphere will be open, transparent and be conducted under control of the authoritative international organization,” Russian President Vladimir V. Putin told Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. With the military option off the table, the U.S. must give diplomacy and chance.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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