by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Dec 5, 2006
All Rights Reserved.

hrowing a monkey wrench into Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's (D-N.Y.) presidential plans, 45-year-old Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) offers more than a fresh face into Democrats' battle for the White House. Obama's electrifying speech to the 2004 Democratic National Convention launched him to the U.S. Senate, opening the door to higher office. For those thinking Barack is too young and lacks experience to run for president, history says otherwise. John F. Kennedy showed presidential ambitions while nominating Adlai Stevenson in 1956, at the tender age of 39. Kennedy handily won the Democratic nomination July 14, 1960, at the advanced age of 43. Obama would be 47 at the next presidential inauguration, Jan. 20, 2009. Age and inexperience has less to do with winning the presidency than candidates' personality, message and meaningful platform.

      Proving that he's a serious player, Obama showed up at the offices of billionaire Democratic donor George Soros, together with his expected top rival Hillary Rodham Clinton. Before Obama hinted at his intentions, Hillary held a lock as frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. With Barack in the hunt, there's nothing automatic about Hillary's ambition. “I like Hillary a lot, but I'm also impressed with Obama—his message, the way he connects to people,” said an unnamed donor, a prominent New York businessman not convinced that it's Hillary's race to lose. “It's a little too early for Democrats to be certain that Hillary is the strongest bet for 2008. There are a lot of good people in the running.” A recent informal AOL poll testing candidates' personal appeal, with more than 300,000 respondents, revealed that Hillary faired worse than all other candidates.

      Theoretical discussions about Hillary's candidacy don't take into account real-life negatives, both in terms of character and personal history that could militate against her candidacy. Recent midyear elections sent a stunning message to the White House, handing the House and Senate control back to Democrats. With the country bitterly divided and President George W. Bush's approval ratings at historic lows, voters sent a loud message that the days of ugly partisanship are numbered. Hillary represents a throwback to the fiercely divided era of her husband's presidency. While most people recall a booming economy and stock market, they also remember Democrats and Republicans fighting tooth-and-nail. Her involvement in the Whitewater scandal and the missing Rose Law Firm files could trigger another partisan divide driving voters to a consensus candidate.

      Whether Hillary has appeal or not, won't stop her fundraising machine from testing a presidential run. Many unsuccessful candidates have been well-funded, despite negatives that should have spelled trouble ahead. “I think they have a phenomenal political machine set up that's far superior to any other candidates, or theoretical candidates,” said loyal Clinton donor John Castinmatidis, expecting Hillary to announce her candidacy early next year. “I think she is tough, I think she is disciplined, I think she is smart, and I'm not one of those people who believe she can't win,” said Obama, skirting the question whether she appeals beyond the Party's hardcore base. Calling her “tough, disciplined and smart,” doesn't answer whether Hillary can attract crossover Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats, unwilling to witness four more years of gridlock.

      Without announcing, Barack signaled he intends to join a large list of presidential hopefuls. “I recognize it's fun to set these things up as a contest between the two of us. I would say half my colleagues in the Senate think they're going to be the next president,” said Obama, hinting that he's already made up his mind. Barack's message harks back to the idealistic Kennedy years when partisan bickering was eclipsed by a duty to work for the good of country, not political parties. Hillary's history inside the scandal-plagued Clinton White House raises concerns about her electability. Her public remarks blaming the Lewinsky sex scandal on a “vast right wing conspiracy” promise to galvanize opposition, causing more cavernous divisions. Democrats don't want a candidate to win the nomination and lose the general election, because of limited appeal to independents and crossover Republicans.

      Whether it's good for the Democratic Party or not, Hillary will no doubt run for president. Unlike Obama, she carries past baggage and personal negatives that should reveal themselves when the campaign gets started. Her toughness and overly serious personality on Senate committees won't translate well into a presidential campaign. If the AOL poll says anything, it shows Hillary lacks the likeability and warmth needed to command a wide appeal. If Democrats want a divisive candidate, they've found one in Hillary. Obama by contrast, offers the kind of fresh face and inclusive message recently sought in the Nov. 7 election. With all the mistakes and divisions of the Bush White House, the next president will have to unite the country as never before. Bush promised “compassionate conservatism” but gave the country the most bitterly partisan divide since the Civil War.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

©1999-2005 Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.
(310) 204-8300
All Rights Reserved.