by John M. Curtis
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Copyright December 2, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

inning the endorsement of Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) got another vote of confidence only one month from the Iowa Caucuses. Cownie's endorsement bucks conventional wisdom anointing Hillary the expected victor on Jan. 3, 2008. Iowan's dislike what presidential candidate former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) calls a “corporate Democrat.” Whether Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) is a “corporate” player or not, Obama runs on the idea that the country must move away from slash-and-burn politics, where bitterness rules the day. Obama has made it clear that the old ways won't work going forward, calling Hillary a throwback to the polarizing politics of her husband's White House. While many admired former President Bill Clitnon's energy and speechmaking, they tired of watching his affair with Monica Lewinsky consume the headlines.

      Nearly seven-years after Clinton left office, voters question the country's tolerance for more ugly partisanship. “Senator Obama has made a promise and is willing and open-minded enough to listen to the mayor of the capital of Iowa,” said Cownie, impressed with Obama's commitment to environmental issues and creating a new politics. “Together we can make a change in Iowa,” attesting to Iowa's already extensive investment in corn-based ethanol. Apart from resonating with specific issues, Obama connects with voters' craving for a new direction. “I've been talking about how we need a new kind of leadership, and there are few areas where this kind leader is more urgently needed than climate change,” said Barack, striking a cord with Iowans. A Dec. 2 Des Moines Register poll indicated that Obama now leads Clinton 28% to 25%, within the statistical margin of error.

      Arakansas Gov. Mike Huckabee also stunned GOP front-runner former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, polling 29% to 24%, with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani a distant third at 13%. Guiliani has already conceded Iowa, moving to consolidate his lead by scoring big on the Feb. 5 Super-Tuesday, when the nation's most populous states cast their votes. Huckabee came out of nowhere on a shoestring budget to take the GOP lead, reminding voters that personality goes along way in presidential politics. Huckabee's folksy, down-home persona resonates with voters, especially Iowans. Voters read Huckabee's sincerity, an essential quality for an electorate jaded by old-school partisanship. Unlike Huckabee, but equally appealing, Obama's folksy intellectual style, raising expectations beyond today's mediocrity. Obama appeals to voters desire for positive change.

      Racked by a costly foreign war and dwindling domestic resources, Obama has voters dreaming about better times. But more than promises, his contagious enthusiasm and willingness to take Hillary to task has propelled him into the lead in Iowa. Hillary's campaign has banked on selling voters on her inevitability, where there's plenty of time for Obama, and even Edwards, to make up ground. Overtaking Hillary in Iowa signals more momentum heading into the Jan. 3 caucuses. Hillary's camp knows that national polls don't mean a thing in the eccentric world to primary politics. Iowan's prefer straight-shooters like Huckabee and Obama, whose presentation appears less packaged and more down-to-earth. What's ironic is the fact that former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thomson, a seasoned actor, hasn't captured Iowans despite his folksy style and Reagan-like presentation.

      Despite leading national polls, losing Iowa could cause a tailspin heading into New Hampshire and South Carolina. Hillary sent Bill to Iowa hoping the former President still appealed to Democratic voters. Clinton's past indiscretions don't play well in the heartland where church, family and hard work trump big-city slickness, often associated with candidates like Giuliani and Clinton. Hillary will continue to augment attacks heading to Jan. 3 believing that more aggression neutralizes Obama's momentum. Yet, like the situation faced by Romney, attacking too much turns off voters, actually hurting aggressive candidates. “The folks from the other campaigns are starting to read the polls and getting stressed and starting to issue all kinds of outlandish accusations,” said Barack, helping to offset more attacks now coming from the Clinton campaign before the Iowan vote.

      Barack's good news about overtaking Hillary comes one month before the caucuses but they can't be taken for granted. Iowan's want idealism and sincerity. They remember 1960 when another idealistic candidate Sen. John F. Kennedy (D-Mass.) wowed caucusgoers, offered new hope. There's no rest for the weary in presidential campaigns. And it's not time for Obama to stop criticizing Hillary and pointing out key differences with her and other Democrats, especially over the Iraq War. “The party has always been at its best when it's not with polls, but with principles, a party that America needs us to be right now,” said Obama, reminding voters why he's the best option for real change in 2008. As President Bush's former chief advisor Karl Rove points out in the London's “Financial Times,” voters want candidates to fight for the nomination but only in a cheerful and classy way.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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