Netanyahu Pressed by Labor Party on Iran

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright December 1, 2013
All Rights Reserved.                                      

           With the P5+1 [U.S., U.K, France, Russia, China and Germany] cutting a deal Nov. 25 with Iran on it nuclear program, 64-year-old Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself tilting at windmills on two fronts:  His eight-year-old campaign against Iran’s nuclear program and the never-ending peace process with Palestinians.  World leaders, especially U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, no longer buy Netanyahu’s argument that Iran’s nuclear program is an “existential threat” to Israel.  Netanyahu, through his conservative friends at the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee [AIPAC], has warned of Iran’s growing nuclear threat.  While no one wants Iran to get “the bomb,” there’s also no evidence that Iran would be stupid enough to drop it on Tel Aviv as Netanyahu insists.  World powers told Netanyahu that enough-was-enough with all his anti-Iran bluster.

             Looming as another mini-crisis for Netanyahu is growing pressure to compromise with 78-year-old West Bank-based PLO leader Mahmoud Abbas on a Palestinian state.  Negotiations began Aug. 13 but have stalled out over Netanyahu’s insistence on building projects in the West Bank.  Israeli construction in the West Bank roils Palestinians seeking a state in the area once sovereign territory of Jordan before the 1967 Six-Day War.  After Britain handed Israel the British Mandate of Palestine in 1948, Palestinians claimed the land as their own, despite having no sovereignty.  Since Israeli repelled the first Arab assault in 1948, they’ve defended an ongoing guerrilla war for the past 65-years.  Palestine Liberation Organization founder Yasser Arafat [1929-2004] worked feverishly to reclaim Palestinian land with Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser, launching the Six-Day-War, June 5-10 1967.

             When the dust settled, Israel had wiped out the Egyptian, Jordanian and Syrian armies, annexing Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip, Jordan’s West Bank and Syria’s Golan Heights, none were Palestinian sovereign land.  Today’s Palestinians seek to establish a state in Israeli spoils of the 1967 War.  Without those spoils, Palestinians would not have a square inch of land on which to establish a new state.  When conservative Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon ceded the Gaza Strip to Palestinians Sept. 12, 2005, he opened the current rift between Hamas and the PLO.  Hamas seized Gaza by force June 14, 2007, splitting Palestinians into two camps:  Hamas in Gaza and PLO in West Bank.  Today’s peace negotiations are only with Abbas in the West Bank.  Hamas’ Gaza-based government of 50-year-old Ismail Haniyeh is officially at war with Israel and not part of any negotiations.

             Meeting with Abbas in Ramallah today, 52-year-old newly minted Israeli Labor Leader Issac Herzog establishes himself as a major player in the current peace talks.  With 15 seats in the Israeli Knesset [Parliament], Herzog has the votes to help Netanyahu pull off a peace deal, without fear of defections from more conservative pro-settler Shas and Beiteinu parties.  “I was very impressed by the willingness of the president [Abbas] to move toward an agreement . . . and I will deliver this message to the prime minister [Netanyahu] who I know is also committed to the idea of moving toward an agreement,” said Herzog.  Herzog believes a “clear majority” of Israelis favor a peace deal that includes creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank.  More thorny issues involve allowing Abbas to claim East Jerusalem as the capital of a West Bank-based Palestinian state.

             Pulled like taffy by his Likud and pro-settler parties, Netanyahu can no longer hide behind the Iranian nuke threat.  With the clock ticking, Netanyahu must play ball with Abbas or risk losing his fragile coalition.  Whether he plays ball or not, Abbas too may not have the backing for a deal unless he gets East Jerusalem as the capital of a new Palestinian state.  Neither Netanyahu nor Abbas nor the U.S. have figured out how to bring Hamas into the fold.  It’s doubtful that Hamas’ leader in exile, 57-year-old Khalid Meshaal, currently joining the fight against Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, would accept any Abbas peace deal.  U.S. officials hope that a deal would pressure Hamas to relinquish power to the PLO.  Given Hamas’ track record, it’s doubtful they’ll join a U.S.-brokered peace deal anytime soon.  Hamas faces real challenges in Gaza with the Muslim Brotherhood now outlawed in Egypt.

             Netanyahu faces some fateful choices now that his campaign against Iran has petered out.  Focusing on a peace deal with Abbas could rescue his legacy at a time of diminishing returns.  With the P5+1 brokering a deal with Iran, it’s become next-to-impossible for Netanyahu to act unilaterally against Iran without any international backing.  Israel’s bizarre alliance with Saudi Arabia against Iran looks more like a deal to keep world oil prices from collapsing.  Whatever the Kingdom’s beef with al-Assad, Israel need to get on the same page with the U.S., no longer working at cross purposes in Syria.  Backing a peace deal with Abbas would help Netanyahu win more security commitments for Israel, while, at the same time, resolve at least half of a 65-year-old festering wound.  Whether or not Hamas ever comes along, half a peace deal is better than no deal at all.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.