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New Year to Bring Surprises in Ukraine
by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700
Copyright
November 26, 2014
All Rights Reserved.
Battered, beaten and regrouping, two-thirds of the
Ukrainian parliament confirmed fiercely independent 40-year-old Arseny
Yataseniuk as prime minister.
Ukraine’s 49-year-old President Petro Poroshenko spoke passionately about a
sovereign Ukraine without foreign intrusion, insisting Ukraine would never
accept partitioning under pressure from Moscow and pro-Russian separatists. Showing unity with Poroshenko, Yatesniuk swore his loyalty to the cause to keeping
Ukraine intact from the Russian foreign intervention threatening to divide the
country. While losing Crimea to
Russia March 1, Poroshenko reiterated there can be no formula other than an
undivided Ukraine. “Here is my hand
for carrying out all that you have just said from the tribune,” said Yatseniuk,
pledging his sacred honor to the cause of ending foreign intervention and
keeping Ukraine whole.
Poroshenko wants Russia out of Crimea, despite the dismal reality that
Russia’s military has a strangle hold on the region. When the U.S. Senate convenes in
January with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) chairman of the Senate Armed Services
Committee, he’s going to call Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin
Dempsey Gen. Martin Dempsey to fashion a coherent Ukraine strategy. McCain and other conservatives want
to station U.S. troops and heavy equipment in Ukraine to counter Putin’s
bullying. “This is our joint
responsibility,” said Yataseniuk, refusing to kowtow to Russian aggression. With the European Union reluctant to
apply more sanctions to Russia because of energy concerns, German Chancellor
Angela Merkel counseled patience in dealing with Putin. Merkel blasted Putin in the
Bundestag over his blatant violations of international law in Ukraine.
Merkel’s strong words against Putin are also tinged with German pacifism
following WWII, where the Nazi war machine was de-fanged by allied powers. Generations of Germans have grown up
believing that pacifism is the only path toward stable international relations. “Nothing justifies the direct
or indirect participation of Russia in the fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk,”
Merkel told the Bundestag. Merkel’s
four-hour meeting with Putin Nov. 15 at the G20 in Brisbane proved that the
Russian leader remains entrenched backing Russia into a corner. Putin’s March 1 invasion of Crimea
and stationing of thousands of Russian troops in-and-out of Ukraine left the
U.S. and EU no choice but to sanction Moscow. After annexing Georgia’s Russian enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008, Putin’s
been intimidating former Soviet satellites.
Believing there’s no credible military counterbalance to Russian
aggression, Putin gambled that neither the U.S nor NATO, nor any other foreign
power would challenge his authority in Europe or elsewhere. When McCain convenes the Senate Armed Services Committee next year, he’ll open a dialogue
about how the White House has let things get out of hand in Europe and the
Middle East. While McCain sees
emerging threats in the Mideast, he agrees with 2012 GOP presidential nominee
Mitt Romney that Putin is America’s biggest challenge. Judging by events in Ukraine, the
U.S.—and certainly the EU—has no coherent containment strategy for what looks
like a new emerging threat from the Kremlin.
With Putin forming alliances with rogue regimes in Central and South
America, Africa, Asia, Mideast and the Indian Subcontinent, there’s much work to
do.
Porshenko currently lacks the military resources to challenge
Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine’s North and Southeast. Without the presence of U.S. or NATO
firepower, there’s little anyone can do to stop Putin from annexing Donetsk and
Luhansk. Putin wants the Ukrainian
parliament to federalize the country, granting semi-autonomous regions buffering
them from Kiev’s grasp. Porshenko
and Yatseniuk are on the same page but lack the military resources to keep
Southeaster Ukraine from falling ton the Kremlin orbit. “These are our warm wishes to those
in the East or West who advise federalization,” said Poroshenko tongue-in-cheek,
knowing the obstacles to steering an intact Ukraine toward ties with the EU and
NATO. Putin sees Kiev’s Western
tilt as a direct-and-provocative threat to Russia’s status quo, asserting
control in the Black Sea region.
As the New Year approaches, Poroshenko know there’s help on the way from
the U.S. in the name of John McCain.
Where President Barack Obama prefers a more cautious approach to foreign
policy, McCain will begin to revive a more aggressive U.S. foreign policy. While there’s a legitimate debate
over how to win the war against ISIS, there’s currently no coherent plan how to
deal with Putin’s unbridled bullying or former Soviet satellites. From the Balkans to the Baltics,
from the Mideast to Eastern Europe, Putin’s used the Russian army to threaten
the sovereignty of former Soviet republics.
“The actions of Russia have called the peaceful order in Europe into
question and are a violation of international law,” said Merkel, calling on the
U.S. to fashion a new approach to contain Putin. Merkel knows that there’s no stomach in the EU for what must be done.
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