Russia's Medvedev Threatens New Cold War

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright November 25, 2011
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    Whatever minefields exist in the Eurozone about the sovereign debt crisis, they pale in comparison to new rumblings about a Cold War between the U.S. and Russia.   Overlooked in all the hubbub over the Eurozone’s economic woes, a planned missile defense plan, singed into law and approved by former President George W. Bush now threatens to upend global stability.  Russian Preisident Dimitry Medvedev warned that if if the U.S. goes ahead with a missile defense plan contracted with Boeing Aerospace for Poland and the Czech Republic he would deploy long-range missiles targeting the radar installations.  Medvedev promised “military countermeasures” to deal with the threat to Russian sovereignty.  Bush ordered missile defense in response to Ahmadinejad’s Iran threatening to “wipe Israel off the map,” considering their long-term missile development with North Korea.

            Medvedev bristled at suggestion by the U.S. State Dept. justifying the missile defense system based on concerns about Iran’s long-range missile threat.  Saying that missile defenses “do not and cannot threaten Russian strategic deterrent,” White House spokesman Tommy Vietor, refuted Medvedev that the U.S. attempted to emasculate Russia’s fleet of intercontinental ballistic missiles.  Bush refused to address Russian concerns when he signed the $20 billion deal with Boeing Defense Systems Aug. 31, 2004 to provide advanced radar and antimissile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic.  Despite Medvedev’s warning, Obama signaled that the U.S. would go ahead with its Star Wars missile defense plans.  Hatched March 23, 1983 by the late President Ronald Reagan, the Star Wars missile defense shield has been a pet project of conservative Republicans.

            Given threats to global economic stability, none would be greater than a war between the U.S. and Russia.  Threats posed by Bin Laden-style terrorism pale in comparison to a conflagration between old cold war enemies.  With former Russian President and ex-KGB agent Vladimr Putin slated to return to power next year, he won’t fool around when it comes to the U.S. Star Wars program in his backyard.  Talking about an Iranian long-range missile threat won’t fly with Putin.  When President Barack Obama signaled the U.S. would move forward with Star Wars in Poland and the Czech Republic, Medvedev threatened to install 300-mile-range missiles in Kaliningrad, between Moscow and Lithuania, aimed at U.S. and NATO missile sites.  If Barack goes ahead, Medvedev threatened to invalidate the Feb 2, 2011 START Treaty, dealing a major blow to arms reduction commitments.

            Russia rejects past reassurances that any Star Wars missile defense system would not be aimed at Russians strategic nuclear arsenal.  Medvedev gets that any missile defense system could be applied to Russia or any other incoming missiles, regardless of the national origin.  “I do think it’s worth reiterating that the European missile defense system that we’ve been working very hard on with our allies and with Russia over the last few years is not aimed at Russia,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.  Medvedev isn’t swayed by empty rhetoric, knowing that any missile defense system could neutralize Russian missiles as well as all others.  Bush’s commitment in 2004 to Star Wars in Eastern Europe didn’t take into account the global instability now rattling financial markets around the globe.  While the Iranian threat is more than ever, Obama must calculate the linkage.

            Bilateral relations between the U.S. and Russian is more important on the U.N. Security Council and for world stability that protecting Europe against an improbable Iranian missile threat.  Whatever untoward comments Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad makes against Israel, there’s no evidence that Iran ever threatened Western or Eastern Europe.  Insisting on installing Star Wars in Eastern Europe is only interpreted by Moscow as a provocative Cold War act.  No amount of justification or reassurance flies with the defense-minded Russians.  “It is . . . designed to help deter and defeat the ballistic missile threat to Europe and to our allies from Iran,” said Kirby, reciting the same worn out talking points that antagonize Russia.  No one at the Kremlin believes that Star Wars is designed to deal with Iranian missile threats—they see it as a provocative threat against Russia.

            Bush’s original 2004 plan to confront a growing Iranian ballistic missile threat in Eastern Europe was ill-advised from the get-go.  No one from his administration had much credibility about identifying global military threats.  His decision to invade Iraq March 20, 2003 torpedoed any credibility about the rationale for deploying a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe.  “If our partners tackle the issue of taking our legitimate security interests into account in an honest and responsible way, I’m sure that we will be able to come to an agreement,” said Medvedev, signaling that much diplomatic work is needed before building the missile defense shield.  When Putin takes office next year, the U.S. can expect less conciliation.  Pushing for Star Wars at the expense of START would be a real blow to Obama’s attempts at arms control, making the world a more dangerous place.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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