Iran's Atomic Subterfuge

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Nov. 25, 2009
All Rights Reserved.                    

        Playing games with the International Atomic Energy Agency, Director General Mohamed ElBaradei expressed uncharacteristic public frustration, urging Tehran to accept his proposal to send Iran’s enriched uranium to Russia for reprocessing.  Iran rejected the IAEA’s proposal to send up to 70% of its enriched uranium to Russia or France for reprocessing fuel rods.  ElBaradei was especially upset over Iran’s repeated denials about new enrichment facilities, only to learn Sept. 28 about its new underground plant in the ancient city of Qom.  IAEA estimates that Iran already has enough enriched uranium for two A-bombs.  Iran’s chief IAEA envoy Ali Asghar Soltanieh “has repeatedly declared that there is no undeclared nuclear material and activity in Iran,” despite the recent revelation about Qom.  ElBaradei insisted Tehran come clean or face a new round of U.N. sanctions.

            Western powers believe Tehran seeks fissile material to build its first nuclear bomb.  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has insisted that Iran’s nuclear program is non-negotiable, proudly declaring the Persian Nation a nuclear power.  “You need the material [out] from Iran to defuse the crisis and open the space for negotiation,” said ElBaradei.  “Keeping the material in Iran will not lead to that,” begging Tehran to reconsider the IAEA’s proposal to ship its fissile material out of Iran.  U.N. officials have already reneged on their demand for Tehran to stop enriching uranium.  Former President George W. Bush tried but failed to get Iran to stop enriching uranium.  Ahmadinejad has thumbed his nose at the international community, insisting the Persian Nation would not succumb to what he calls the “bullying powers” trying to stop Iran from completing the nuclear fuel cycle.

            U.S. President Barack Obama has given Tehran until the end of the year to halt its nuclear enrichment program or face more severe sanctions.  Barack has tried to bring China and Russia into the fold, two veto-wielding members of the U.N. Security Council, previously opposed to more sanctions.  While there’s consensus among the six-nation pact, including the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, about the IAEA plan to ship Iran’s fissile material to Russia for reprocessing,, it’s uncertain whether  Russia and China would support more sanctions.  With Obama poised to escalate the Afghan war, he’s in no position to go it alone with Tehran.  He must rely solely on the IAEA and U.N. Security Council to mete out Iran’s punishment.  Tehran insists it has done nothing wrong secretly building the Qom enrichment plant.  ElBaradei disagrees, saying Iran was “outside the law.”       

            Discovery of the Qom nuclear enrichment facility should surprise no one, since Iran has had an active nuclear program for over 30 years.   For two years before going to war against Saddam Houssein March 20, 2003, the White House insisted that Iraq possessed a dangerous nuclear and biological weapons program.  They deliberately ignored Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency intel showing that Iran, not Iraq, posed the greater nuclear threat.  Iran’s steady development of its nuclear industry has been supported by Russia, France, Pakistan, and, yes, camouflaged U.S. companies.  Recent concerns about Iran’s nuclear capability by the NSA and IAEA are and hour late and dollar short.  Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have no intent, sanctions or not, of stopping Iran’s nuclear industry to satisfy belated U.N or U.S. warnings.

            When Obama announces Tuesday, Dec. 2 in a nationally televised speech at West Point his escalation of the Afghan War, the Iranians will push the pedal-to-the-metal in developing the Persian A-bomb.  They’ve been on a feverish pace to produce highly enriched uranium needed to build a nuclear device for years.  Ahamadinejad knows that despite the threats, neither the U.S. nor its surrogate Israel has the capability to intervene militarily without disastrous global consequences.  Not only would air-strikes not get to Iran’s fortified underground nuclear facilites, it would not measurably delay Iran’s pursuit of its first A-bomb.  Bush’s Iraq war, and now Obama’s Afghan troop surge, guarantees that Iran will move full steam ahead with its nuclear ambitions.  No matter how much the U.S. or Israel huffs-and-puffs, Tehran knows the they can’t afford a new military adventure    

            More U.N. sanctions won’t stop Iran’s well-developed nuclear program, now poised for its first A-bomb.  Ahmadinejad knows what Pakistan’s infamous bomb-maker A.Q. Khan means by the “great equalizer.”  He knows how Pakistan’s A-bomb neutralized India, holding a more powerful nation at bay with the threat of “mutual assured destruction.”  U.S. officials know it’s already too late to put Iran’s nuclear genie back in the bottle.  At the end of the day, Russia and China won’t support more draconic sanctions, handcuffing attempts at containment.  While foreign policy always involves tradeoffs, Bush should have picked a different battle when he went to Iraq.  Giving Tehran more time only made today’s containment efforts feeble.  More threats by the U.S. or U.N. won’t reverse Iran’s nuclear developments, now closer than ever to joining the “nuclear club.”

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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