by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright November 25, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

hen Bush's Mideast peacemaking begins Nov. 26 in Washington, he hopes to salvage a foreign policy racked by the mess in Iraq. While his “troop surge” seems to have reduced U.S. and Iraqi casualties, the unpopular war has cost the GOP dearly. What started as a valiant effort to restore U.S. credibility in the wake of Sept. 11, has morphed into one of the most costly blunders in U.S. history. Losing more U.S. lives than 9/11 and costing almost a $1 trillion, Bush hopes he can leave office on a positive note. Wrapping up a peace treaty between Israelis and Palestinians would redeem a seven-year foreign policy failure and probably land Bush the Nobel Prize. When former President Bill Clinton tried to pull off the same feat, it ended in the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat starting a new guerrilla war. Bush faces similar obstacles but he's dealing with more trustworthy partners.

      Unlike Arafat, his successor, Palestine Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, isn't playing both sides against the middle. Arafat exploited Hamas and other Palestsinian groups to pressure Israel into making concessions. This time around, Abbas finds himself at war with Hamas, looking, with the U.S., for a way to take Hamas out of the equation. Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip June 14, 2007, leaving Abbas in control of the West Bank, where 2.5 millions Palestinians live outside foreign countries like Jordan, Syria and, to a lesser extent, Egypt. Since the end of the Ottoman Empire and British mandate, the Gaza Strip was controlled by Egypt but governed by Palestinians. On the eve of a possibly historic Mideast summit, Abbas only controls about 70% of Palestinian lands. Going to Washington, Abbas hopes a peace deal will put pressure on Hamas to relent.

      When Bush circumvented Arafat, it signaled his administration's attempt to find more a reliable Palestinian peace partner. Unlike Arafat, Abbas isn't beholden to extremists that view any peace deal as a means to the end of destroying the Jewish state. Bypassing Hamas carries certain risks, including fueling a possible civil war. On the other hand, if Abbas negotiates successfully for an independent Palestinian state, there will be considerable pressure on Hamas to acquiesce. While Gaza represents only 20% of an expected Palestinian state, it's the choicest Mediterranean beachfront property, formerly occupied by the Ottoman Turks from 1517-1948. Hamas' current Gaza leader Ismail Haniyeh and its leader in exile living in Damascus Khaled Mashal, have no interest in peacemaking. Both still seek Israel's destruction as a basis of returning Palestinian land.

      Before Israel declared statehood May 14, 1948, the United Nations Nov. 29, 1947 approved a partition plan that divided the British Mandate of Palestine into Jewish and Arab areas. While Israel accepted the U.N. plan, Arabs rejected it launching the first Arab-Israeli War resulting in shrunken borders, giving up the West Bank to Jordan and the Gaza Strip to Egypt. At no time did Palestinians have sovereignty of any territory currently occupied before the formation of Israel. Whatever land Palestinians get now are spoils of war taken from Egypt and Jordan during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War and given by Israel to achieve a comprehensive Mideast peace. Now that a Palestinian state appears within reach, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad supports Hamas and rejects Bush's efforts at peacemaking. Ahmadinejad has a vested interest in destabilizing the peace process.

      What makes the latest round Mideast peacemaking more feasible is dealing with Abbas. Arafat pandered to extremists and was unable to accept concessions, especially on the fate of Palestinian refugees and Jerusalem. Abbas seems content to gain monetary reparations for refugees and share Jerusalem—as it does today—as capitals of two independent states. Once Abbas nails down an agreement, Hamas would be under heavy pressure to relinquish power. “Hands off would be and understatement,” said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli negotiator now with the Century Foundation, about Bush's future role in pulling off a new peace deal. Unlike Clinton in 2000, Bush plans to let Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her staff work out the details. Bush recognized past failures and wants Israelis and Palestinians to work out the details of a comprehensive peace plan.

      When Hamas seized Gaza in June, it accelerated the peace process by taking extremists out of the equation. If Hamas joined Abbas in a coalition government, it would complicate negotiations for an independent state. Abbas no longer has to take Hamas' demands into account when working out the details for an independent state. He knows that after the details are worked out, he will get the credit and be recognized as the single Palestinian leader. Bringing in the Egyptians, Saudis, Syrians and more friendly North African and Gulf States to the bargaining table can only lend credibility to an ensuing Palestinian state. While ignoring Hamas opens the door to civil war, creating an independent state would pressure extremists into making more concessions. Regardless of all Bush's problems with Iraq and Afghanistan, a Mideast peace would redeem a lasting legacy.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

©1999-2005 Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.
(310) 204-8300
All Rights Reserved.