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Iran Won't Acquiesce to Vienna Nuclear Talks
by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700
Copyright
November 22, 2014
All Rights Reserved.
Getting down to crunch-time Nov. 24 on a nuclear
deal between Iran and the P5+1, including the U.S., Britain, France, Russia,
China and Germany, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei won’t capitulate
to Western powers seeking to halt, restrict or contain Iran’s nuclear enrichment
program. Unwilling to allow the
U.N.’s-Vienna-based International Nuclear Energy Agency unfettered access to
sensitive nuclear sites, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Foreign Minster
Mohammad Javad Zarif had no breakthroughs for U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry
only days before the Nov. 24 deadline.
Like the West at loggerheads with Russia in Ukraine, there’s nothing the
West with Russian and Chinese backing can do to get Khanemei to compromise
Iran’s nuclear program. A source of
national pride for decades, Iran won’t surrender national sovereignty to the
IAEA.
Kerry acknowledged that there’s much work to do to complete a
satisfactory deal, unlikely to gain backing in a Republican-controlled Senate. “We’re working hard,” Kerry said in
Vienna. “And we hope we’re making
care careful progress, but we have big gaps, we still have some serious gaps,
which we’re working to close,” said Kerry, admitting that all the months of
back-and-forth negotiating haven’t come close to panning out. Calling the Vienna talks a “moment
of truth,” German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeyer is kidding himself
thinking Iran will do anything more than make token concessions. Even if Iran agrees to hand over
enriched uranium to a third party like Russia, it wouldn’t stop Iran to skirting
restrictions, continuing convert U235 or U238 into uranium hexaflouride gas,
spinning it into weapons grade material.
Khamenei won’t acquiesce for sanctions relief.
Iran believes U.N. sanctions that restrict petroleum sales damaging the
economy is an unlawful type of bullying driven by Western powers. “The gap remains big . . . There now
needs to be a political decision,” said an unnamed Iranian source, hoping Tehran
makes more concessions. Whether
admitted to or not, Zarif and 66-year-old titular Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani have no power other that what’s granted to them by Khamenei. Khamenei, one of Israel’s most
outspoken enemies, knows that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while
not named, drives the U.S. and European Union to take a tough stand with Iran. While Israel has its hands full
fighting Palestinians militants, Netanyahu his put Tehran on notice that it
reserves the right to attack Iran’s nuclear sites. Netanyahu has called Iran’s nuclear
program an “existential threat” to Israel.
Expecting a deal by Thanksgiving is unrealistic, especially with
Khameneishowing no signs of budging in Vienna.
“In order to get a deal the Iranians will have to budge in a rather
substantial manner,” said an unnamed European source admitting there’s been “no
significant progress.” What Western
power don’t get is that the fact Rouhani and Zarif have been engaging P5+1 in
Vienna is a good sign, despite the lack of progress. Rouhani and Zarif would
like to make a deal with Kerry & Co.
but have no authority beyond Khamenei’s instructions. As the deadline looms, Kerry hints
at extending the talks beyond Nov. 24, essentially kicking the can down the
road. Extending the deadline won’t
matter if the P5+1 doesn’t ratchet up the pressure with more economic sanctions
or possible military action. No
country in the P5+1 wants to escalate the crisis.
Iran got itself in hot water with former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
threatening to “wipe Israel off the map,” no matter how much hyperbole his fiery
rhetoric received in 2005. When
Ahmadinejad hosted a holocaust deniers’ conference in Tehran Dec.11, 2006, it
sent Netanyahu over the edge, heaping more pressure Iran’s nuclear enrichment
program. Joining the talks in
Vienna Nov. 23, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, British Foreign Minister
Philip Hammond and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius hoped to bring a deal
together before the Nov. 24 deadline.
“All elements are already on the table,” said Lavrov, admitting the only
thing missing was the “political will.”
Without Khamenei changing heart, all the hard work will yield nothing
other than lip service. Khamenei
considers the P5+1 “bullying powers,” interfering with Iran’s sovereignty.
Approaching the deadline for a nuclear deal, there’s no real chance of a
deal that involves any real concessions with Tehran. Khamenei views the Vienna talks a
encroachment on Iran’s rights under the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
giving sovereign states the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. Without any concrete proof that Iran
seeks to build as nuclear weapon, Khamenei isn’t inclined to offer concessions
on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.
“The remaining issues are tough and an agreement will require difficult
political concessions from both sides,” said Arms Control Association analyst
Kelsey Davenport, not holding his breath on an agreement. Kerry knows if the P5+1 agree to a
deal in which the IAEA has no authority to inspect Iran’s nuclear sites, it will
be a farce, prompting the Republican-controlled Senate to rake the White House
over the coals.
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