by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright November 22, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

edged between former Paksistan Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, U.S.-backed President Pervez Musharraf finds himself in quicksand, sinking quickly amid a sea of corruption and fraud. Musharraf fired the Supreme Court, declaraed “emergency rule” and placed hundreds of opponents under house arrest, all to consolidate his eight-year hold on Pakistan. Musharraf came to power in 1999 in a bloodless coup, forcing then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif into exlile. Bhutto left office amid corruption charges Nov. 5, 1996, accused of money laundering, siphoning off millions into joint Swiss bank accounts. Pakistani authorities estimate her wealth in Swiss accounts at around $1.5 billion. Bhutto, a Radcliffe-Harvard and Oxford-educated eldest daughter of the executed Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, wants to replace Musharraf and return to power.

      When Musharraf disbanded the Supreme Court, suspended the constitution and declared marshal law Nov. 4, he justified the extreme measures based on the risks of Islamic extremism. In reality, the former Supreme Court Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry was close to authorizing Bhutto's lawful return to Pakistan. Musharraf's kangaroo court re-certified his election for a new five-year presidential term, prompting him to relinquish his army post by month's end. While Pakistan's Election Commission certifies Musharraf's new five-year term, his government is considered illegitimate by most Pakistanis and foreign states. Musharraf hasn't accepted that he's no longer wanted in his own country. He hasn't yet authorized the return from exile in Saudi Arabia former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, head of Pakistan's Muslim League, whom he ousted in a 1999 bloodless coup

      Sharif's expected return, together with Bhutto's ongoing protests, spells problems for Musharraf going forward. He no longer enjoys—and probably never has—a popular mandate, leaving Bhutto' to collect favorable publicity trying to replace the dictator. White House officials walk a dangerous line supporting Musharraf, while pretending to respect democracy and the rule of law. Supporting Musharraf breeds anti-Americanism and pushes Pakistanis toward civil war.. “We are ready to face him and he has to face the people,” said Chaudhry Shujaaf Hussain, president of Pakistan's Muslim League-Q, a key supporter of Sharif. Whether accepted or not by the U.S., Musharraf can no longer lead Pakistan without driving the country to less desirable alternatives. With Musharraf at the helm, no election or political appointments can be considered legitimate.

      Musharraf hopes to keep Sharif out of Pakistan until after parliamentary elections. His return, together with Bhutto's constant voice in the Western press, hastens Musharraf's demise, prompting the U.S. State Department to consider the repercussions. Without Musharraf, there's no guarantee that the next regime will seek close ties to the U.S. Despite paying lip service to the “war on terror,” Musharraf cut deals with al-Qaida and the Taliban, allowing the outlaws to inhabit the mountainous badlands bordering Afghanistan. If Sharif returns, he will no doubt seek to oust Musharraf, whipping Islamic parties—and radicals—into a frenzy believing they can takeover Pakistan. By criticizing Musharraf's attempts to maintain control, the U.S. can no longer complain when Pakistan falls into less friendly hands. Compared to Bhutto and Sharif, Musharraf is the lesser of three evils.

      Dictatorship has its place in countries where democracy would only radicalize an already unstable population. Free elections brought Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Palestine's Hamas. Musharraf knows that radical Islam threatens to turn Pakistan into the next rogue state. Under Bhutto and Sharif, Pakistan's notorious atomic bomb-maker Abdul Qadeer Khan sold nuclear technology to rogue nations like Iran and North Korea. Without a strongman like Musharraf, guarding the nuclear henhouse, the world will become more dangerous as rogue elements begin to monkey with Pakistan's nuclear technology. Musharraf can't fathom getting lectured for being a dictator, since he's been the West's darling since 1999. Cutting him off now would repeat past mistakes that led to Ayatollah Khomenei's Iran. Like him or not, the U.S.—and the rest of the West—must pick its poison.

      Musharraf holds onto power by a thread with former Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif nipping at his heels. Suspending the constitution, declaring emergency rule and incarcerating dissidents are part of the Musharraf's attempt to maintain control. Urging Musharraf to end marshal law doesn't deal with the reality that the 64-year old dictator hangs onto power by the slimmest of margins. Growing opposition inside Pakistan makes his survival unlikely. Outside pressure from the U.S. and Europe helps sabotage his regime, currently hanging on for dear life. Everyone knows that Musharraf can't possibly hang onto power without strong U.S. and European support. Giving democracy a chance in Pakistan could hand the country over to Bhutto, a known embezzler, or Sharif, an Islamic sympathizer, who maintains close ties with Islamic extremists

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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