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Hamas Ceasefire Raiese Eyebrows by John M. Curtis Copyright
Nov. 20 2012 Feverishly working on a ceasefire agreement, 11th-hour negotiators, led by 61-year-old U.S.-educated Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, continued through the night. While Morsi was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood—the same group that claims al-Qaeda’s No. 1 Ayman al-Zawahri—he’s worked nonstop on ending the recent strife that pounds Gaza into a hopeless rock-pile. With U.S. Secretary of State speeding from Cambodia to Cairo, there’s diplomatic progress toward a ceasefire. Morsi expressed confidence that the two sides would agree soon, begging the question of what Hamas accomplished, other than more death and destruction. Hamas’ leader in exile, Khaled Meshaal, recently evicted from Damascus for aiding the revolt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, demanded that Israel stop targeted assassinations and open up the Kerem Shalom border crossing. Israeli aggression started with the Nov. 14 surgical missile assassination of Hamas’ militant chief Ahmed Jabari. Jabari was wanted in Israel for countless murders of Israeli citizens, No. 1 on Israel’s Most Wanted list. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled he’s willing participant in any long-term ceasefire or peace deal with the Palestinians. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned Hamas’ rocket attacks but urged Israel to show “maximum restraint” over a possible ground invasion. All the diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire condemned Israeli aggression openly but under-the-table asked Hamas to hold its rocket fire. “Turkey is standing by you,” said Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu, showing solidarity with Hamas’ publicly but applying pressure on Gaza leader 49-year-old Ismail Haniyeh to order a halt to all rocket attacks on Israel. Hamas’ rocket barrage has resulted in little damage in Israel but incalculable damage to Gaza’s already ramshackle infrastructure. When you consider all the damage, Haniyeh obviously hopes for a strong international economic response. Western powers have been reluctant to turn cash over to Hamas because of its known support of terrorist activities. “Our demand is clear. Israel should end its aggression immediately and lift the inhumane blockade imposed on Gaza,” said Davutoglu, conveying Hamas’ central objective in the rocket campaign. Working on a temporary ceasefire won’t satisfy Netanyahu unless he gets reassurances from Hamas that they’ve ended rocket fire for the foreseeable future. Speaking for Palestinian militants on Hamas-run TV, elusive military commander Mohammed Deif said Gazans “must invest all resources to uproot this aggressor from our land.” Hamas’ big challenge going forward is joining some peace process that eventually recognizes Israel’s right to exist. While Netanyahu won’t insist on this precondition for a ceasefire, he will insist Hamas stop all rocket fire, even by terror groups like Islamic Jihad. “I prefer a diplomatic solution,” said Netanyahu at a joint press conference with German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle. “But if the fire continues, we will be forced to take broader measures and will not hesitate to do so,” hinting at a possible ground invasion. Netanyahu knows what happened when the IDF invaded Gaza in 2008. With Hamas and other terrorist groups imbedded in the civilian population, it’s virtually impossible to wage and effective ground campaign. Israeli forces would sustain more casualties and eventually have to leave. Mobile rocket launchers would be impossible to eliminate entirely. Winning Hamas praise from other Arab capitals doesn’t translate into anything other than lip service. No Arab state is willing to risk military consequences joining Hamas’ rocket fire or any other military action on Israel. Firing rockets at Israel was sheer madness when you consider the destruction that’s been heaped on Gaza. When Israel assassinated Jabari Nov. 14, Hamas decided to uncork its missile arsenal regardless of the outcome. It’s one thing for Haniyeh to order some measured retaliation for Jabari’s death, it’s another to deliberately degrade Gaza’s infrastructure by provoking the IDF into prolonged air strikes. While unloading rockets on Israel gets plaudits in the Arab world, the costs to ordinary Gazans, including Haniyeh’s own infrastructure, is unfathomable. Hamas leadership, in Gaza and elsewhere, faces a tough crossroad moving forward. Hamas officials must redouble efforts to end the civil war that began when they seized Gaza June 14, 2007 by force from the Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority. While both sides seem simpatico hating on Israel, neither side plans to relinquish power to the other. When Hillary Rodham Clinton arrives from Phnom Penh to Jerusalem, she won’t talk directly to any Hamas leaders. If she meets with Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, she’ll convey the U.S. position on any conditions for a ceasefire. With the Abbas out of the loop, the State Department must eventually recognize the ruling authority in Gaza. While neither side looks ready for a truce, Morsi expressed confidence that he’ll prevail on Hamas to stop firing missiles. Looking to save face and end their outburst, Hamas will need some concession from Israel to show their suicide mission was not entirely in vein. John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma. |
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