by John M. Curtis
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Copyright November 20, 2002
All Rights Reserved.

anding at Saddam Hussein International Airport, chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix sounded cautiously optimistic, though faced with the daunting task of finding and dismantling Iraq's weapons of mass destruction in a country roughly the size of California. "We have come here for one single reason, and that is the world wants to have assurance that there are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq," said Blix, despite Iraq's denials that such weapons or materiel exists. Inspections begin Nov. 27 but the real test starts Dec. 8 when Iraq formally declares its inventory of banned substances. Keeping up the pressure, President Bush emphasized his intention to disarm Iraq should Saddam continue to play games. Few believe Saddam will really disarm his illegal arsenals. High tech equipment and eager personnel can't deliver disarmament unless Iraq cooperates. Iraq—and indeed the European and Mideast press—views the resumption of inspections as a prelude to war.

      As U.N. workers busily unloaded equipment, U.S. and British fighter jets bombed radar installations in the northern and southern no-fly zones. U.S authorities already see Iraqi antiaircraft fire as a material breach of the recent U.N. resolution 1441. "Our view is that Saddam Hussein does not need to be playing games at this point. No cat-and-mouse. It is time for him to comply and cooperate and disarm," said White House spokesman Scott McClellan, reminding Iraq that the U.S. government has their finger on the trigger. But Security Council members don't consider engagement in the no-fly zones a material breach. "We don't consider 1441 to be about the enforcement of no-fly zones," said an unnamed British diplomat, placating French and Russian concerns that stepped up attacks on defense installations softens up the eventual battlefield. Though Baghdad finally capitulated to new U.N. demands, the ceremonial parliament rejected 1441 as coercive U.S. action.

      Deputy Prime Minister Tarik Aziz warned the U.S. and U.K. against using 1441 to attack Iraq. "We are an old nation, and we could survive," said Aziz to British TV. "But I tell you, if the U.S. and U.K. wage a war against Iraq, the consequences will be very bad to them and their friends in the region," hinting that Iraq would hit Israel—and possibly Kuwait— like they did during the Gulf War. Israeli Prime Minister Sharon has already signaled he won't sit on his hands this time around. Smoke blowing Aziz should bite his tongue and pray U.N. inspectors continue to play Saddam's cat-and-mouse game. U.S. authorities already know that Baghdad hid its biological, chemical and nuclear weapons and hopes to outlast U.N. inspections. "Our country is free of weapons of mass destruction . . ." said Saddam's son Uday in a front-page editorial. Come Dec. 8, don't be surprised if Iraq declares a bogus list of banned materiel, seemingly complying with 1441.

       Calling the U.N. Security Council a "gang of evil," Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri accused the White House of "the most wicked slander against Iraq," categorically denying it possesses any weapons—or components—of mass destruction. Baghdad's official denial already breaches 1441, calling for Iraq to give full and truthful accounting of illicit components by Dec. 8. Beginning Nov. 27, inspectors will start reviewing thousands of documents related to Iraq's biological, chemical and nuclear weapons programs. It could take months before inspectors get a handle on Iraq's weapons profile. For over four years, since chief U.N. inspector Richard Butler bolted in 1998, Iraq has had ample time camouflage illegal weaponry. Now shooting in the dark, Blix must go to previously off-limit sites, including presidential compounds and places.

      Hinting at the same old news, a key editorial in Iraq's Bath Socialist Party newspaper said that U.N. inspectors were "an American organization to spy on Iraq." Playing the same broken records give Iraq reason to claim "sovereignty" or "dignity" to deny inspectors access to specific sites, triggering a U.S.-led invasion. For Iraqis, the U.N. resolution and inspection scheme represents a prelude to war. "Perhaps it is intended this way—that any clash between the two sides might give the U.S. administration a pretext for its war," said Iraqi political scientist Wamidh Nadhmi, expressing doubts about avoiding war. While Iraqis prepare for war, the U.S.S. Harry Truman, the nation's most sophisticated nuclear powered aircraft carrier, steams toward the Persian Gulf. Stockpiling atropine—the medical antidote for nerve gas—suggests that Saddam has some tricks up his sleeve.

       Heading to a collision course on Dec. 8, Saddam plays a dangerous game of chicken, refusing to acknowledge his weapons of mass destruction. "The question of war and peace remains first of all in the hands of Iraq, the Security Council and the members of the Security Council," said Blix, realizing that a lot rests with his inspection team. Blix and others at the U.N. don't get it that the U.S. reserves the right to act in its own defense. Since 9/11, no U.N. reassurance or multilateral approach prevents deadly terrorism. Signing on to 1441 doesn't change the facts on the ground: Saddam Hussein is a dangerous madman that must be stopped. No inspections—no matter how successful—reverse Saddam's psychopathic core, leaving him unfit for political leadership. Whether Blix succeeds has nothing to do with Saddam's fitness for duty. Giving him the benefit of the doubt only prolongs the agony. With or without the inspections, Saddam must go.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's a consultant and expert in strategic communication. He's author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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