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Putin Isolated at G20
by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700
Copyright
November 15, 2014
All Rights Reserved.
Russian President Vladimir Putin found himself in the
hot seat at the G20 Summit in Brisbane, Australia, confronted by world leaders
over his ongoing incursion in Ukraine.
Since annexing Crimea March 1 and stationing thousands of Russian troops
on the Ukrainian border, Putin has found his gambit in Ukraine costly, prompting
the U.S. and European Union to hit Russia with punitive economic sanctions. While Putin insists the sanctions
have backfired, foreign capital has flooded out of Russia, driving the ruble and
stock market to multiyear lows.
Since March 1, no one has prevailed on Putin to take an active role in making
peace in Ukraine. Instead of
blaming the Feb. 22 coup that toppled pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich on the U.S.,
Putin’s running out of excuses, now isolating Russia in the world community. Putin counted on backing from China
and various rogue states.
Getting a rude awakening at the G20, Putin found himself, according to
British Prime Minister David Cameron, at a fork in the road: Either face more sanctions and
isolation or get out of Ukraine. “I
guess I’ll shake your hand but I have only one thing to say to you: you need to get out of Ukraine,”
said Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, mirroring sentiments of other world
powers at the G20. Since seizing
Crimea, Putin put the Russian military into a more aggressive posture around the
globe, flying reconnaissance missions and holding navy exercises around the
globe. What disturbs world leaders
is a pattern of intimidation and bullying not only with former Soviet satellites
but other Eastern European countries, including Poland and Nordic states faced
with Russian submarine incursions.
Putin sees Russia as a victim of Western aggression by the U.S. and EU.
Leaving the summit early, Putin’s press team denied that he left the G20
under duress from Western powers.
“This is wrong. The president is
taking part in all the (G20) events,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov,
putting the best face on a bad situation.
Official Russian press reports in Moscow make no mention of any rebuke or
dissension in Brisbane. “Western
nations have imposed successive rounds of sanctions on Moscow, accusing it of
sending troops and tanks to back pro-Russian rebels fight to break away from
Ukraine,” said Peskov, denying all Western charges. Russian denied any involvement in
the downing of Malaysian Flight MH17 July 17, killing all 298 passengers and
crew. Pro-Russian rebels had no
sophisticated surface-to-air missiles to pull off that feat other than supplied
by Moscow. Russian continues to irk
world leaders denying any involvement.
Putin gambled that his ongoing business relationship, supplying some 30%
of Germany’s petroleum and natural gas, would shield him from economic
sanctions. German Chancellor Angela
Merkel has gone beyond her comfort zone backing harsh economic sanctions
designed to financially harm Russian oligarchs closely tied to Putin. “The present situation is not
satisfying,” Merkel told reporters.
“At present the listing of further persons is on the agenda,” warning Russia
about more sanctions. British Prime
Minister David Cameron was unusually blunt with Putin about Russia’s involvement
in Ukraine. French President
Francois Hollande halted delivery of a Mistral helicopter warship due to
Russia’s ongoing involvement in Ukraine.
EU officials demanded Putin end Russia’s involvement in Ukraine,
promising more sanctions if Putin didn’t pull his forces out Luhansk and Donetsk
in Southeastern Ukraine.
Since Putin invaded Crimea March 1, he’s been unwilling to withdraw
Russian forces, giving pro-Russian separatists the firepower needed to fight the
Ukrainian military. When the U.S.
Senate changes hands Jan. 1, President Barack Obama will be forced to answer
more questions about the lack of U.S.-backing in Ukraine. Sen. John McCain
(R-Ariz.), who becomes Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, will call
hearings, dragging Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Demsey and
Centcom Commander Army Gen. Lloyd J. Austin to question Obama’s Ukraine
strategy. Whatever happens with
more U.S. or EU sanctions, the conservative foreign policy establishment won’t
accept an adventurous Russia undermining commitments to former Soviet satellites
now under the NATO’s umbrella.
While that doesn’t apply to Ukraine, defending Ukraine would halt Putin’s
aggression.
When Putin invaded Crimea and supplied troops to pro-Russian separatists
in Ukraine, he miscalculated collective U.S., EU and NATO action. After evicted by the G8 March 24, Putin’s on the threshold if things don’t change soon of
the same fate in the G20. Russia’s military adventure in Ukraine dominated the G20 agenda, forcing world powers to
confront Putin. No one in the U.S.,
EU or NATO wants a military confrontation with Russia but, at the same time,
can’t allow Putin’s aggression to remain unchecked. Scandinavia, Baltic States and many
former Soviet republics feel bullied by Moscow, threatening their sovereignty
and territorial integrity. Putin
shows zero tolerance of former Soviet states that choose closer ties to the
West. No one knows what life was
like behind the Iron Curtain better than Merkel.
She won’t sit idly by watching another tyrant threaten East Berlin.
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