by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Nov. 13, 2006
All Rights Reserved.

ov. 7 did more than put Democrats back in power, it disabled an incumbent president faced with major foreign policy challenges. Visiting the White House, Israeli President Ehud Olmert finds a different President George W. Bush, no longer with same swagger that gave Israel a blank check during his first six years. Olmert faces his own problems, walking on thin ice for the recent debacle in Lebanon. Like Bush, who recently dumped Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, Olmert axed Israeli Brigadier-Gen. Gal Hirsch, who headed the Galilee Brigades, responsible for Israel's northern security. Unlike Bush, Olmert probably won't survive the next two years, with his approval rating a disastrous 20%. Olmert seeks help to restrain Iran's feverish pursuit of nuclear weapons, something high on Bush's list before Nov. 7 pulled the rug out from underneath his presidency.

      All bets are off now that Bush fights to keep Democrats from pulling the plug on Iraq. Before the election, dealing with Iran was a welcomed distraction from mounting U.S. casualties and the public's perception that the war was a disaster. Bush called for Iran's isolation until it “gives up its nuclear ambitions,” something Iran categorically rejects. Before Nov. 7, Bush's calls for Iran to suspend enrichment carried more weight. Olmert doesn't quite get that there's little Bush can do to restrain Iran's firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from enriching uranium. Promising to add 3,000 centrifuges in January, Ahmadinejad knows Bush is a weakened leader, giving Tehran the green light to make fissile material. “Iran's nuclear ambitions are not in the world's interest,” said Bush, warning that a nuclear-armed Iran would destabilize the Middle East and beyond.

      Bush's warnings no longer carry the same clout. Even the Security Council no longer views Iran's uranium enrichment as a provocative threat to the status quo. Russia, which recently overcame major U.S. obstacles to gain admission to the World Trade Organization, already signaled it would veto any Security Council resolution with stiff sanctions on Tehran. Russia wants to complete its billion-dollar deal, finishing Iran's Bushehr reactor. Security Council sanctions call for all countries to stop supplying Iran with technology and material, something Russia rejects. Without U.S. support, Olmert has implied that Israel may have to act unilaterally, including possible military options. Tehran responded by threatening severe retaliation should Israel take preemptive action, bombing Iran's nuclear sites. Since Nov. 7, Bush's tough talk no longer has the same punch.

      Olmert also met with Bush on the thorny issue of Israeli-Palestinian peace. For months, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has tried to persuade Hamas to accept a coalition government, acceptable to the U.S. and Europe. After cutting off all Palestinian aid, Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh agreed to step down, offering the job to West Virginia University microbiologist Mohammed Shabir. Shabir recently retired as president of Gaza's Islamic University, where he worked for 15 years. Both Abbas and exiled Hamas leader Mosoud Marzouk agreed to compromise, the first real breakthrough in Mideast peacemaking in years. Palestinian's new technocrat-run government has been brokered by Egypt, injecting some life back into the moribund peace process. If Egypt pulls off the deal, it would give Bush an unprecedented chance to get the credit.

      Landing a Mideast peace deal would give Bush added clout in the wake of Nov. 7. Bush's steadfast support of Israel and rejection of the current Hamas government helped, together with Europe's support, to force Hamas to compromise. Appointing a Western-trained intellectual to head the government opens the door for more breakthroughs. Nothing could slap Tehran in the face more that working out a comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. Ahmadinejad has done nothing other than play agitator, hijacking the Palestinian cause to divert attention from his uranium enrichment program. Brokering a peace deal would expose Tehran's obvious attempt to exploit Palestinians for his own agenda. Tehran promised but never delivered the hundreds-of-millions in dollars in lost aid when Hamas continued to reject Israel's right to exist.

      Bush has a golden opportunity to deal a blow to Tehran's nuclear ambitions. By supporting Mohammed Shabir's rise to Palestinian prime minister, Bush can undermine Tehran's ugly attempts to sabotage Mideast peace. Shabir would lead an emergency government designed to get Palestinians back on their feet after a yearlong power struggle with Abbas and rejection by the world community. “We are interested to hear what he has to say,” Micaela Schweitzer-Bluhm, spokeswoman for the U.S. Consulate in Jerusalem. Events happened so fast-and-furious, U.S. and European officials were blindsided. “I very much hope that we can see a government which takes positions which allow us to respond,” said European Union External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner. While Bush finds himself stunned by Nov. 7, new developments could save the day.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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