by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright November 10, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

reparing a definitive 30-page summary on global warming, a U.N. committee on climate change plans to present a state-of-the-art document making it difficult for nations not to sign-on when they meeting Nov. 12 in Valencia, Spain. When U.N. members convene, they want to extend the 1997 Kyoto protocol to more than the 175 nations, making the strongest possible case for fixing manmade climate change caused by carbon dioxide emissions. Monday's document consists of 30 tersely-worded pages, summarizing the major findings of the most reputable scientific studies on climate change. Valenicia's meeting precedes next month's conference in Bali, Indonesia where the U.N.'s Intergovernmential Panel on Climate Change attempts to extend binding elements of the Kyoto Protocol to non-signing countries like the United States, Russia and China.

      U.N. officials hope the new report, which combines four previous studies, “integrates all the elements, the connections between them,” said one of its authors Bert Metz of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. “The reactions that I heard from politicians around the world is that they were shocked by the reports and that they should be acted on,” said Yvo de Boer,” the U.N.'s top climate official, applying more pressure on nations not yet signing the Kyoto Protocol. IPCC's latest report aims to convince global warming skeptics that the world's climate situation is worse than advertised. “There's a growing consensus that Bali needs to achieve a breakthrough to put negotiations in place, and that's very encouraging,” said De Boer, hoping to produce a new climate change protocol. “But it's not going to be easy,” noting resistance by major industrial powers.

      Opposition to restricting so-called greenhouse gasses or carbon monoxide emissions stems largely from economic concerns—the costs involved in retrofitting vehicles and industry to meet new global pollution standards. There's little debate left over whether the planet is currently warming. Proponents like recent Nobel laureate former Vice President Al Gore insist that manmade pollution adds to the earth's warming cycle, accelerating what planetary scientists see as a future global environmental catastrophe. Several reputable studies predict, if the current rate of greenhouse gasses continue, the planet could expect an 11-degree increase by 2100. Scientists conjecture that only a 3.6 degree increase would subject 2 billion people to devastating drought, causing the demise of some 20-30% of the earth's species. Other parts of the planet could experience devastating floods.

      U.N. watchdog agency on climate change estimates that without collective intervention by the globe's biggest polluters, including the U.S., Russia, China, India and Australia, the present warming trend can't be stopped. Costs associated with necessary pollution controls could run about 3% of the world's GDP. With the U.S. teetering on recession, it's unlikely lawmakers will be pressured into signing a new, tougher global warming accord. Strict federal pollution standards, while somewhat relaxed under Bush, still cost U.S. industry jobs and productivity. “We want to emphasize the urgency which comes from science,” said Stephanie Tunmore of Greenpace environmental group, a pro-Kyoto lobbying group. “We know what's happening, we know what's causing it, and we know what we have to do about it,” urging lawmakers to ratify Kyoto or any new accord out of Bali.

      No one knows for sure whether technology can solve or even slow the present global warming trend. There's untold billions at stake in retrofitting and retooling consumer and commercial industry to meet new pollution standards recommended by the IPCC's summary report. Most responsible countries want to do their part to contain greenhouse gasses from industrial and consumer pollution. What they don't want is get duped by ambitious entrepreneurs poised to capitalize on the new pollution technology. Because “scientists” agree that manmade pollution accelerates global warming doesn't mean that today's technology can slow or stop the current warming cycle. Signing-on to a tough new global warming accord won't answer the question of whether technology can really change the earth's warming cycle. Science has predicted before other catastrophes that never materialized.

      Because the U.N. watchdog group meets in Valencia or Bali doesn't mean that the world's biggest industrial powers can automatically sign-on to a new global warming pact. Nor does it mean that today's consensus report makes accurate predictions about the effect of greenhouse gases on the world's climate change. All responsible nations should do their part to reduce industrial and consumer pollution. Wherever the IPCC meets, it can't expect the world's industrial powers to sacrifice their economies because of today's mass hysteria about global warming. Numerous scientific studies in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s predicted the end of the oil supply by the turn of the century. Likewise, well-intentioned planetary scientists and U.N.'s officials shouldn't pressure the leading industrial powers into signing a protocol that pushes the world economy into a slowdown or possible recession.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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