U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Near Collapse

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright November 8, 2014
All Rights Reserved.                                     

                 With the Nov. 24 deadline looming for a nuclear deal with Iran, Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met in Muscat, Oman today, hoping to hammer out remaining details on a pact designed to prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons.  U.S. and it European partners, including the U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany [P5+1], want Tehran to limit uranium enrichment to only 10 percent, enough for generating energy or medical isotopes.  No matter how much Zarif or Iranian President Hassan Rouhani want an arms deal, Iran’s 75-year-old Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could veto any concessions incompatible with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, allowing sovereign nations to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, including energy and medical isotopes.  No one knows whether or not Khamenei will go along with the current deal.

             President Barack Obama tamped down expectations for an eventual deal, believing there’s too much at stake to fail.  “Are we going to be able to close this final gap so that [Iran] can re-enter the international community, sanctions can be slowly reduced and we have verifiable, lock-tight assurances that they can’t develop a nuclear weapons?” asked Obama.  Despite punitive economic sanctions, Iran insists it has the right under the Nuclear-Non-Proliferation Treaty to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, regardless of pressure from the U.S. and P5+1.  U.N.’s Vienna-based nuclear watch dog group, the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA], hasn’t been allowed to inspect sensitive nuclear sites since 2006, making it difficult to monitor Iran’s atomic activities.   Since 2006, IAEA inspectors were banned from going to Parchin, Qom, Natanz and other sites suspected of military applications.

             Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thinks Iran is feverishly pursuing a nuclear weapon, despite its denials.  Obama expressed doubt that the current bridging proposals on a nuclear pact would work before the Nov. 24 deadline.  “There ‘s still a big gap.  We may not be able to get there,” said Obama, realizing that Khamenei could torpedo the current nuclear deal.  U.S. and EU officials want Iran to limit its number of centrifuges busy spinning yellocake uranium where its combined with fluorine to form uranium hexaflouride gas, then spun into U-235 for fissile material in nuclear reactors or spun further into weapons grade fuel.  U.S. officials are concerned about the military component to Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, something that worried former Secretary-General of the IAEA Mohammed ElBaradei.  Without access to Iran’s sensitive sites, there’s no way to rule out Iran’s military use.

             Whatever’s said in meeting between Kerry and Zarif, Khamenei and Iran’s hardliners want no part in making nuclear concessions to the U.S or P5+1.  Meeting in Muscat, Oman, Kerry and Zardari and former EU policy chief Catherine Ashton tried to work on a suitable deal, knowing full-well, that Zardari could face a firing squad for giving up too much.  Neither Rouhani nor Zardari have any real say in any final nuclear deal.  If Khamenei wants to end the U.N. sanctions crippling the Iranian economy, he’ll play ball with Kerry.  Reports of President Barack Obama writing to Khamenei to find some common ground dealing with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria irked GOP lawmakers, especially Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), soon to be the Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.  McCain thinks dealing with Khamenei debases U.S. foreign policy.

              As the Nov. 24 approaches, Rouhani and Zardari have less leverage to cut a deal that compromises Iran’s nuclear rights.  Heaping more pressure on Zardari and Rouhani, 200 Iranian MP’s signed a statement insisting they “vigorously defend” Iran’s nuclear rights and encourage “total lifting of sanctions.”  With so much distrust over Iran’s sincerity to open its atomic program to open IAEA inspections, it’s doubtful any deal can be reached with Tehran.  Rouhani and Zardari think differently than Khamenei that sees Iran’s nuclear program as a part of national pride.  Despite Rouhani replacing former President Mahmoud Ahmandinejad Aug. 4, 2013, Khamenei and other hardliners see no reason to placate the U.S.  They’ve lived with U.N. sanctions for years, finding clever ways circumvent the economic fallout, selling Iranian oil and other banned commodities on the black market. 

 About the Author 

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.