by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Nov. 8, 2009
All Rights Reserved.

             Handing Speaker Nancy Pelosi the biggest victory of her political career, the U.S. House of Representative voted November 7 [220-215] to  pass President Barack Obama’s health care bill.  While the vote represented the biggest health care vote since Medicare in 1964, the House bill faces an uncertain fate in the U.S. Senate.  Barack hoped the same momentum that carried the day in the House would extend to the Senate.  He wants the Senate to “take the baton and bring this effort to the finish line on behalf of the American people.”  Despite Democrats 60-member filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, there’s strong opposition to the House bill.  Voicing his objections, former Democrat and now Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) promised “as a matter of conscience, I will not allow this bill to come to a final vote,” rejecting the House bill, fearing adverse fallout on the economy.

            Lieberman joins other Republicans believing that footing he bill endangers the U.S. economy.  His friend and Senate colleague Sen. Lindsay O. Graham (R-S.C.) insisted “the house bill is dead on arrival in the Senate,” noting little support for a government plan that competes with private insurers.  Senate Republicans haven’t gotten satisfactory answers for how a government plan wouldn’t hurt the private sector and eventually the U.S economy.  In the final version the House bill, Pelsosi surrendered funding for abortion, a sticking point for many Blue Dog conservative Democrats, unwilling to pay for abortion.  Liberal Democrats still went along, despite the restriction against abortion.  Unlike the House, Obama faces bigger challenges in the Senate where there’s growing opposition to the public option, where the government offers competitive plans with private insurers.

             Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), the lone Senate Republican supporting the legislation, favors a public option only if the current bill fails to improve accesses and control runaway health care costs.  If private health insurers don’t adopt in due time the bill’s provisions, then some senators may move to the public option.  Senators, like Snowe, want to see the industry reverse exclusions for pre-existing conditions and control runaway costs.  “If the private market fails to reform, there would be a fallback position,” said Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.).  “It should be triggered by choice and affordability, not by political whim,” seeking to give insurance companies the chance to rectify unfair practices and policies, hurting affordability, access and quality.  Pelosi’s plan won’t meet the same fate in the Senate, where a conference committee will be forced to compromise on objectionable provisions.

           Expressing worries about the economy, Lieberman expressed concerns with the so-called “public option,” where the government would shoulder, like Medicare, much of the costs.  He, and other Republicans, are concerned about the possibility for abuse, especially among undocumented workers, causing an endless hemorrhage to the U.S. treasury.  “I believe the debt can break America and send us into a recession that’s worse than the one we’re fighting our way out of today,” said Lieberman, raising legitimate concerns about launching health reform in a time of recession.  Expected to cost $1.2 billion over 10 years, the House bill would tax upper-income earners, causing worries to well-meaning supply-siders.  Raising taxes during a recession causes more concern about fueling recession.  With government revenue down from the recession, budget deficits would surely rise.

           When the Senate gets the bill, it’s likely to pair-down Pelosi’s ambitious plan, requiring universal coverage.  Making the program voluntary would defeat the plan by forcing spotty participation not generating enough premiums to assure widespread use.  Now that the House bill has moved to the Senate, Barack urged Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to complete a Senate vote by the end of the year.  Reid signaled last week he wasn’t sure whether that was a realistic goal. With so much Republican opposition in the Senate, Reid has his work cut out for him delivering on Barack’s deadline.  To hold down costs during the recession, many of the bill’s provision wouldn’t go into effect until 2013.  Insurers fear a competitive government plan that forces them to offer more benefits and less hype.  Publicly-traded insurers fear a drop in quarterly earnings would hurt share prices and evntually employment.

          Against all odds, Pelosi delivered the nation’s first national health care plan.  While it’s now left to the Senate, the GOP must take it seriously or face unwelcomed consequences in next year’s midterm elections.  After all the blood, sweat and tears, simply handing Barack a political defeat won’t fly with the vast number of voters looking for a responsible effort at health care reform..  Some version of national health care must come out of the Senate or there will be hell to pay in next year’s elections or beyond.  “The House bill is dead-on-arrival in the Senate,” said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), demonstrating the kind of cynical theater that’s likely to backfire.  While a determined minority wishes Barack’s heath care reform to fail, vast numbers of middle-of-the-road voters want progress.  Senate Republicans must stop playing politics and deliver health care reform to mainstream voters.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.