by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright November 7, 2002
All Rights Reserved.

aking a beating on Nov.5, Democrats must take a searching inventory and finally change management after losing ground in the House and surrendering the Senate. While the White House deserves credit—especially President Bush's bliztkrieg during the final three weeks of the campaign—many factors contributed to Republican fortunes. Above all, Sept. 11, the ongoing war on terrorism and the prospects of war with Iraq, dominated the headlines—helping to create Bush's coattails. Though the war issue dictated the outcome, the White House didn't artificially usurp more pressing issues, including the battered stock market, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates to save the economy. No, the White House didn't have to manipulate public opinion to convince voters that national security was a high priority. Sept. 11 shifted the political landscape, allowing the White House to control the national agenda.

      Getting off on the wrong foot, House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) announced he would step down, taking the fall for giving up six seats. Losing Gephardt's stature—and experience—won't help restore Democrats' shaky credibility. Giving a better picture, Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McCauliffe and former President Bill Clinton must release control of the Democratic Party or face almost certain liquidation in 2004. Both McCauliffe and Clinton put their prestige on the line, campaigning in Florida to upend Gov. Jeb Bush, believing they would undo the 2000 election, paving the way for 2004. Squandering millions on a failed cause, party leaders must admit that Clinton and McCauliffe represent liabilities to the Democratic Party. Jeb Bush won reelection easily, proving that Clinton and McCauliffe no longer have the same mesmerizing charm.

      After cashing in $18 million from now bankrupt fiber optic giant Global Crossing, McCauliffe doesn't have the credibility to lead the Democratic Party. Even Security and Exchange Commission Chairman Harvey Pitt had to resign after blindly pushing the SEC to appoint former CIA and FBI director Judge William Webster to head the government's new accounting oversight board. Clinton and McCauliffe's colossal miscalculation in Florida proves that they no longer produce positive results. Party leaders must look to new leadership or face an unending backlash from Clinton's past misdeeds. No aspiring political party can allow its chief spokesman to be part of the same corruption it purports to change. Looking ahead to 2004, Democrats can't pretend that McCauliffe and Clinton have the same appeal to mainstream voters. "George Bush has never had coattails," insisted McCauliffe, blindly overlooking Bush's strong national role as a wartime commander-in-chief.

      In pivotal Senate races, McCauliffe might be right that Bush's coattails weren't all that helpful. Rep. John Thune missed unseating incumbent Sen. Tim Johnson in South Dakota by only 500 votes, despite Bush's aggressive campaigning. Impressive former Rep. Jim Talent (R-Mo.) barely upended Missouri Sen. Jean Carnahan, despite her lackluster appeal and tenuous credentials. In Minnesota, former St. Paul mayor Norm Coleman nearly lost to 74-year-old former Senator and Vice President Walter Mondale, despite retiring from politics after his crushing loss in 1984 to President Ronald Reagan. Bush's coattails didn't save feisty Doug Forrester who lost handily to octogenerian, former New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg. Other House and Senate races lost by Democrats were more attributable to winning candidates than presidential coattails. Bush's coattails also didn't stop Democrats from picking up four new statehouses or failing to cash in on a battered incumbent governor in California. Bush's popularity and energetic campaigning helped, but, at the end of the day, didn't dramatically affect the outcome.

      Blaming former House Minority Leader Dick Gepardt or former Sen. Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) ignores the real problems at the Democratic National Committee. Clinton once brought great success, but his lingering notoriety keeps the party from moving forward. Keeping Terry McCauliffe at the helm gives the GOP ongoing ammunition to drag the Democratic Party through the same mud associated with Paula Corbin Jones, Monica Lewinsky and, and, yes, impeachment. Poor voter turnout also hurt Democrats, whose registered voters seem less reliable than Republicans. Appealing to immigrants and minorities, Democrats miscalculate the importance of mainstream voters. Broadening the base requires party leaders to craft platforms that appeal to moderates and crossovers, not just stereotypes seeking government largesse. Analysis of newcomers, especially Latin American immigrants, indicates they resemble mainstream voters more than traditional minorities.

      Getting a wake-up call, Democrats must overhaul current leadership and retool platforms to remain competitive in 2004. Party spin meisters can't erase 9/11 or redirect the electorate to issues carrying less weight. Despite the flagging economy, national security still represents the country's number one challenge. Changing the subject only frightens voters into believing that Democrats are out of touch with nation's top priorities. For Democrats to reverse Tuesday's trends, they must first change faces at the Democratic National Committee. No party chairman with indisputable ties to conspicuous corporate greed can lead a national crusade. Past presidents that galvanize the opposition and still carry baggage from past indiscretions also can't play a high profile role at party headquarters. Tainted charisma doesn't replace the current leadership vacuum desperately seeking new faces. Presidential coattails didn't break Democrats' hearts on Nov. 5. Failing to clean house, install new leadership and set new priorities did the real damage.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's a consultant and expert in strategic communication. He's author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

©1999-2002 Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.
(310) 204-8300
All Rights Reserved.