McCain's Downfall

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright November 5, 2008
All Rights Reserved.                    

             President-elect Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) scored a dramatic win Nov. 4 over his GOP rival Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), winning 53%-46% of the popular vote, scoring a clear landslide in the Electoral College 364-163.  Pre-election night polling underestimated the extent of the Barack’s margins, especially in Nevada where the typically red state spotted Obama a nearly 13% margin.  By the time the polls closed on the east coast, McCain didn’t know what hit him, falling to keep the race competitive in Republican strongholds like, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Florida and New Mexico.  McCain only won his home state of Arizona by less than eight percent, an alarming number when you consider its long GOP tradition.  While the GOP licks its wounds, McCain must figure out what went wrong.  Too much emphasis has been blamed on President George W. Bush and the bad economy.

            McCain’s maverick tradition morphed since losing to President George W. Bush in 2000.  He became more oriented to Bush’s neoconservative ways, especially after Sept. 11 when the country rallied behind the war on terror.  McCain lent Bush considerable support in the senate, not only going after the Taliban in the months following 9/11 but the lead up to the Iraq War. Obama successfully tied McCain to Bush’s hip, showing little separation on key domestic and foreign policy issues.  As the conventions drew near, Bush’s evangelical base showed little enthusiasm for McCain, lobbying hard for a conservative VP.  When Barack picked Joe Biden for his VP to shore up in lack of foreign policy experience, he got a bump in the polls.  By the time the convention ended Aug. 28, McCain watched Obama’s lead began to get out of reach, causing panic inside the campaign.

            During the week of the Democratic National Convention, McCain’s team huddled to make his VP pick.  McCain’s campaign manger Rick Davis, strategists Charlie Black and Steve Schmidt, concluded that McCain needed something dramatic.  They vetted Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ricdge, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I.-Conn.), and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romeny.  On Friday, Aug. 29, one day after the DNC convention, McCain announced Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his VP pick.  Cheers rang out across the evangelical community, realizing the once maverick senator had thrown them a bone.  McCain threw all the pundits for a loop, galvanizing the news cycle with his unexpected pick.  When the euphoria died down, Democrats and moderate Republicans gasped, unable to comprehend what looked like a foolish gamble.

            Palin’s pick gave McCain a 10-day bump in the polls, eventually reversed when she consented to a low-key interview with CBS News Evening News anchor Katie Couric.  Palin-euphoria quickly vanished, leaving the campaign on the defensive explaining her qualifications for VP, let alone president.  Then came biting criticism from former Secretary of State Colin A. Powell and Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), a sane voice inside what’s left of the moderate wing of the Republican Party.  At his gracious acceptance speech Nov. 4, McCain praised Palin for being an upcoming force in the GOP.  He suggested she was the future of the Party.  He couldn’t bring himself to accept that Palin frightened off independents, moderate Republicans and crossover Democrats.  McCain’s brain-trust thought Palin would deliver Bush’s base and Hillary’s disgruntled female supporters.

            When Bush’s approval dipped to 25%, McCain should have realized it was foolish to keep pursuing Bush’s base.  Instead of picking Palin to go after the base, McCain would have been far better off staying with Mitt Romney.  Only evangelicals couldn’t stomach Mitt’s Mormon faith.  They treated him like his faith came from outer space not Salt Lake City.  GOP insiders should be dealing with the most egregious prejudice seen in the 2008 campaign:  The intolerance by Christian evangelicals of Romney’s Mormon faith.  Romney’s executive experience and vast knowledge of the economy would have balanced out the GOP ticket.  Palin solidified Bush’s shrinking base but alienated 75% of voters seeking practical solutions to tough problems.  Instead of solving real problems, McCain’s presidential decision demonstrated blindness to the needs of anxious voters.

            McCain’s downfall began Aug. 29 when he picked Palin for his VP.  His concession speech showed he’s still in denial that Palin seriously crippled his campaign.  He faced steep headwinds from an unpopular incumbent and poor economy, needing far more than placating Christian evangelicals.  Palin’s appeal to “Joe six-pack” and McCain’s foolish embrace of “Joe the plumber” showed mainstream voters that his campaign was out-of-touch.  Too much negative campaigning also backfired, making McCain look desperate in the final weeks before the election.  Instead of ingratiating himself to Bush’s base and catering to evangelicals and neocons, McCain would have been more competitive had he picked Romney and wooed mainstream voters.  Whatever consultants thought Palin would attract the votes of disgruntled Hillary supporters should find a new career.

          John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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