by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Nov. 4, 2009
All Rights Reserved.

              Voters spoke to President Barack Obama Nov. 3, electing Republican governors in Virginia and New Jersey, though Democrats picked up a House seat in Upstate New York.  Voting their pocket books, Virginians gave former Atty. Gen. Bob McDonnell a whopping landslide, winning 59% of the vote.  Signaling a disturbing trend for Democrats heading into next year’s midterm elections in the Garden State, former 47-year-old former Republican U.S. Attorney Chris Christie upended incumbent Gov. John Corzine, 49%-45%.  While Democrat Bill Owens eked out a 4% victory in New York’s 23 rd congressional district, Christie’s win in New Jersey stole the headlines.  “The Republican renaissance has begun . . . in earnest,” said Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele whose past feud with conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh raised eyebrows.

            Democrats hoped for a better showing in New Jersey where the GOP usually fairs poorly.   While Steele thumps his chest, a looming recession and push for national health care has left Barack’s approval ratings sinking to around 50%.  Barack finds himself 18% down from the inauguration, where the country rallied around his presidency.  Ten months later, after spending a whopping $787 billion bailout, the country continues to lose jobs, prompting voters’ buyers remorse.  Barack promised up to 1.5 million jobs, either saved or created, from his stimulus plan, where the federal government bailed-out cash-strapped states and some of the nation’s biggest insurance companies and financial institutions.  Obama must take notice, before it’s too late, that he no longer enjoys the coattails of last November’s election.  Today’s voters ask, “what have you done for me lately?” 

            Without an economic rebound, Barack can expect declining approval ratings, handing the GOP needed momentum heading into next year’s midterm elections.  “The most important thing is that Republicans keep moving to the right.  A Republican candidate moving to the right in a blue state is never a good sign for viability in a general election,” said Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), finding a silver lining to Tuesday’s results.  Menendez forgets that red-and-blue states shift loyalty depending on key domestic and foreign policy issues.  Barack has faced a stubborn economic decline, so far resistant to liberal Federal Reserve Board policies.  Faced with more economic misery, voters look to alternative candidates promising a different approach to resuscitating the economy.  Never before have domestic and foreign policy weighed so heavily in voters’ minds.

            Unable to shake a stubborn recession, once blamed on former President George W. Bush, Obama faces problems going forward.  His approval ratings continue to sink under the weight of growing unemployment and federal budget deficits.  While his economic recovery plan has provided some relief, Barack continues to push a $1 trillion national health care plan, causing endless political squabbles in the House and U.S. Senate.  Looming in the background is a fateful decision about adding more troops to Afghanistan.  Signals from the European Union indicate resistance to continue adding more troops.  Growing coalition casualties present more political problems for Obama and his European counterparts.  Afghanistan represents a bottomless pit of U.S. blood and treasure, the exact problem in Iraq that drove Bush’s approval ratings—and GOP fortunes—into oblivion.

            Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey signals that the White House is on the wrong track.  Recent polls about Afghanistan and national health care indicate that the Obama, like Bush on Iraq, has become tone deaf, only ten months into office.  Before Barack follows Bush over the falls, he’d be well advised to take a second look at both issues.  Considering that only 42% of voters support national health care and about the same for Afghanistan, Obama needs an urgent midcourse correction before it hands the GOP an early Christmas gift.  Barack’s decision on Afghanistan can’t ignore next year’s voters already jaded by bloated defense spending, growing budget deficits and the prospects of perpetual war.  In a time of recession, the White House can’t ignore the damaging effect of excessive military spending on the domestic economy.  Voters won’t ignore the economy.       

            GOP victories signal problems with Obama’s domestic and foreign policy agenda.  On the home front, voters have spoken loudly that they don’t want health care reform at the expense of the economy.  They’ve also warned Barack that last year’s good will on Election Day can easily evaporate.  When he considers adding troops to Afghanistan, he must pay attention to voters’ warnings to avoid the same mistakes as Bush.  Republican support of a troop surge in Afghanistan could be exactly what the GOP needs to retake the House and Senate and eventually sink Obama in 2012.  “The center of the electorate is for limited government and tolerance on social issues,” said conservative “The Club for Growth” President Chris Chocola, attributing GOP successes to ideology.  Recent GOP successes reflect current economic woes and prospects of bad domestic and foreign policy.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.