Voters Finally Decide

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright November 3, 2008
All Rights Reserved.                    

            Presidential nominees Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) and Sen. John McCain will stop spinning and leave their fate to voters when they go the polls to pick a new president Nov. 4.  All the billions of dollars spent on positive or negative ads, all the mud slinging by both candidates and all the blood, sweat and tears left on the campaign trail finishes the most costly and contested election in U.S. history.  Every election seems pivotal but this one presents dramatic choices to fix the nation’s broken economy and manage two bloody wars.  McCain and his running mate Alaska Gov. Sarach Palin guaranteed an upset on Election Day, proving national and statewide polls wrong, showing Obama with a commanding lead.  McCain and Palin’s last-minute spin involves convincing GOP voters that that the biggest upset since Truman beat Dewey in 1948 is in the works.

               Republican National Committee deputy chairman Frank Donatelli insisted that voters will witness a shocking upset.  “I don’t’ acknowledge it’s a long shot.  It’s a realistic shot,” said Donatelli, despite aggregate national polls showing Barack increasing an already unbeatable 7% lead.  While some typically Republicans battlegrounds remain in play, the vast majority show Obama’s momentum heading into Election Day.  One day before voters head to the polls, the campaign must not allow a “bandwagon effect” to discourage GOP voters, especially important for Republicans currently running from behind.  While Democrats fretted about the so-called “Bradley Effect,” where respondents fib about their intent to vote for a black candidate, the McCain campaign worries far more about GOP voters giving up to the growing inevitability of an Obama landslide.

            Gamesmanship continues to the end, keeping the psychology positive for the underdog before voting begins.  Obama also doesn’t want to show overconfidence to supporters, less inclined to vote because they think the outcome is already and done deal.  “I don’t thin it’s outrageous,” said Doantelli, “to think we are going to do much better with party turnout than some of the models indicate,” preserving for GOP added incentive to go to the polls.  At almost every stop, McCain and Palin tell voters not to not listen to the polls showing them lagging behind, reminding them that in the end only voters count.  Donatelli believes McCan can win all the battleground states, including Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, all showing Obama with a sizable leads heading into Nov. 4.   McCain’s road to the White House has become a dangerous tightrope.

             Obama has many ways to reach the needed 270 electoral votes, now running in scarce supply for McCain.  Obama’s momentum and ground game has to screech to a halt, handing the election to the underdog.  “Liberal Democrats should not control the whole federal government,” said Donatelli, warning GOP voters about the impending GOP rout.  Telling voters to expect big losses on Election Day doesn’t reassure beleaguered Republicans heading to the polls.  November 2008 looks like a continuation of 2006 where voters vented frustrations and handed the House and Senate to Democrats.  Just when the GOP though things couldn’t get worse, the recent financial mess gave Obama supporters new urgency for change.  Whether voters understand the issues or not, doesn’t prevent them from the common sense idea that the incumbent party shouldn’t return to the White House.

            Republicans have taken heart from the relatively close race, sporting Obama an aggregate lead of 7.5%.  A CBS News poll, for instance, shows Obama leading by 14%.  What GOP optimists don’t get is that McCain, a 26-uear veteran of the U.S. Senate and decorated Vietnam war hero, is losing to a little known junior African American senator for Illinois.  While McCain expressed satisfaction with his pick of Palin, polls show that she hurt the ticket with independents, moderate Republicans and Reagan Democrats, all find her too inexperienced and extreme for mainstream voters.  McCain and Palin will continue to spin the imminence of a Truman-like comeback.  They know the polls show an Election Day rout.  “All signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call next Tuesday,” said Ed Goes, blowing more smoke, one of McCain’s personal pollsters   

            McCain knows that only his internal polls show a close race Tuesday.  All the prayers for a “Bradley Effect” can’t stop the superior numbers of Democratic voters likely heading to the polls..  McCain’s spin machine has done their best to stem the “Bandwagon Effect,” that even partisan voters may switch parties and vote for the expected winner.  McCain handed Barack an early Christmas gift picking Palin, someone most voters—including women—believe is not qualified for VP.  While Palin looks to 2012, McCain must figure out what went wrong in his campaign to pick someone that hurt the ticket.  In his lust for victory, McCain miscalculated her appeal to undecided voters, especially independents, Reggan democrats and moderate Republicans.  When the dust settles after Obama’s historic win, McCain will have a long time to figure out his mistakes.

  John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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