by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright November 3, 2005
All Rights Reserved.

esurrecting memories Iran's deceased revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told delegates at “The World Without Zionism” conference that Israel should be “wiped off the map,” drawing frenzied cheers from a crowd of Islamic extremists. Khomeini, of course, stood down the U.S., ordering “students” to seize of the U.S. embassy in Tehran Nov. 4, 1979, in the wake of Iran's Islamic revolution. Some believe—including experts at the CIA—that Ahmadinejad was one of the young radicals directly involved the Iran hostage crisis. Sixty-six American diplomats and embassy personnel were held 444 days, before the stalemate ended minutes after the inauguration of Ronald Reagan Jan. 20, 1981. Faced with economic upheaval, an annoying democracy movement and growing international pressure, Iran's radical mullahs reprised an old theme: Destroy Israel.

      Israel bashing has been the favorite pastime of Islamic governments hoping to suppress unrest and fledgling democracy movements. Beating pro-Western and reform-oriented 70-year Akbar Hashemi Rasfanjani dealt a major setback to Iran's reform movement, currently under the stranglehold of Iran's Revolutionary Council, headed by Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini. Not long ago, Rasfanjani, regarded liberal compared to Khameini, called for using an atomic weapon against Israel. Iran hasn't hid, until recently, its nuclear ambitions, getting help from North Korea, Russia and, of course, don't forget Pakistan's Abdul Qadir Khan. Calling Ahmadinejad's election June 25 “profound humilitation” for the U.S., Khamenei has great difficulty concealing Iran's nuclear plans, refusing to cooperate with Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mohammed ElBaradei's U.N. weapons inspectors.

      Threatening Israel plays well for Iranian politicians, trying to rally their base against pro-democracy movements. Inviting condemnation at the U.N. and elsewhere, Ahmadinejad's threat against Israel ups the stakes for ElBaradei, as Iran seeks to complete the nuclear fuel cycle, converting depleted uranium into uranium hexoflouride gas, capable of being spun by centrifuges into weapons grade uranium. Tehran has promised to resume enrichment activity at its Isfahan reactor site, citing its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. With Ahmadinejad's rhetoric against Israel, Iran's nuclear ambitions have gotten special attention. In lieu of suspending enrichment activities, Khameini has recently agreed to allow ElBaradei's team to inspect its highly secret Parchin military nuclear facility in northern Iran.

      Iran's minders have restricted access to inspectors at sensitive nuclear sites. Inspecting Parchin gives Iran cover for its enrichment activities at Isfahan, while other heavy water sites like Arak and Natanz continue completing the nuclear fuel cycle, possibly developing plutonium. “The Islamic republic of Iran is committed to its engagements based on the U.N. charter and has never resorted, nor threatened to resort to, force against another country,” said Iran's foreign ministry, back-peddling on Ahmadinejad's comments about “wiping Israel off the map.” Ahmadinejad's remarks whip up his base, now threatened by a rising tide of anti-Mullah sentiment. Only hardliners respond to hateful rhetoric, reminding Khameini's followers about the hard-fought Islamic revolution, getting rid of the Shah and turning back the clock on Western influence—and progress.

      Spouting anti-Zionist rhetoric helps Ahmadinejad score points with his base and win approval from Khameinei. It's doubtful that even with nukes, Iran would risk certain retaliation and mutual assured destruction. Israel has never declared itself a nuclear state, nor disclosed its stockpile of weapons. Tehran knows that if it had nukes, it could blackmail the West and control the lifeblood of Western Civilization: Oil. No one wants to wait until Iran announces it has atomic bombs. When Iran has A-bombs all bets are off, including U.N. leverage and threats of sanctions. With the U.S. bogged down in Iraq, it's more difficult to contain a growing Iranian nuclear threat. Whether the U.S. likes it or not, it's now up to the ElBaradei's International Atomic Energy Agency to contain Iranian plans. Fighting a costly war in Iraq has spread U.S. resources too thin to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions.

      If there's any consolation to Ahmadinejad's threats, it's Iran's standard diet of anti-Zionist propaganda. Without contrived threats against “the West,” there's little leverage Iranian politicians have over its beleaguered populace. Forcing its youth into mountain hideouts to put on lipstick and play rock music, Iran's religious oppressors won't be able to contain a growing pro-democracy movement, set back by Ahmadinejad's election June 25. Whether Ahmadindad's election was rigged or whether he was one of the terrorists that ransacked the U.S. embassy is anyone's guess. With Iran feverishly pursuing nuclear bombs, the U.S. can't afford to squander all its resources in Iraq. Whatever weapons of mass destruction weren't found in Iraq, they're likely to show up in Iran without a concerted effort. Putting too much faith in ElBaradei could prove hazardous to U.S. national security.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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