GOP's Last Days

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright November 1 , 2008
All Rights Reserved.                    

            GOP Presidential nominee Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) final days in the bunker before Nov. 4 are spent blowing smoke to the media, hoping, against all odds, to get out his ever-shrinking base.  So-called “undecided” voters, estimated at around 10-12% of remaining voters, seem headed toward the perceived “winner,” something referred to by political scientists as the “bandwagon effect.”  Whether you believe it or not, last minute deciders like to throw their vote to a winner, not waste it on a failed candidate.  “We’re pretty jazzed up about what were seeing the movement of the election,” said McCain’s chief smoke blower, campaign manager Rick Davis.  Davis reads the same polls as everyone else showing Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) with a sizable, but, more importantly, stable lead heading into Election Day.  Davis isn’t “jazzed,” he’s just playing games.

            There’s nothing in the tealeaves to verify Davis’ contention that an improbable comeback is in the works.  “We are witnessing, I believe, probably one of the greatest comebacks that you’ve seen since John McCain won the primary,” Davis told a press conference call, getting the intended effect of more Internet headlines.  Key to understanding Davis’ words are “I believe” and “probably,” a personal belief of McCain and his inner circle that borders on delusional when you read any reputable polls.  All reputable polls point toward an Election Day rout, something akin to Ronald Reagan’s 1980 landslide over former President Jimmy Carter.  McCain’s communication team can only spin as much as possible between now and Nov. 4.  Communication experts pay close attention to parsing of words, where Davis can barely deliver the “comeback” message with a straight face.

            McCain’s last-ditch argument has centered on pleading with voters to not allow Democrats to control the House, Senate and presidency, essentially conceding massive losses to the GOP on Nov. 4.  What McCain and the GOP haven’t yet got is that voters are “mad as hell” about President George W. Bush’s track record as president.  Voters now get to pay back the incumbent’s party for mismanaging the country for the last eight years.  While Obama’s election is all but guaranteed, the real question after Election Day is what happens to the Republican Party.  McCain never quite fit into today’s GOP, dominated by religious conservatives, no longer representing mainstream Republicans.  There’s been recent chatter about positioning Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for a possible run in 2012, especially outrageous when you consider her presence on the ticket wrecked McCain’s chances.

            McCain’s miscalculations were numerous but nothing more egregious than picking a little known, inexperienced running mate, whose claim-to-fame was firing up what’s left of Bush’s evangelical base.  McCain’s brain-trust actually thought they’d pick up disgruntled “Hillary” supporters.  They couldn’t have gotten it more wrong, as Palin turned off most independently-minded women voters.  Evangelicals, led by Rev. James Dobson, now urge the Party to consider Palin for 2012, a certain disaster as it was in 2008.  Depending the size of McCain’s loss, the Party will be forced to reinvent itself after Bush, through his chief strategist Karl Rove, turned the GOP into a Christian-right party, alienating voters’ changing demographics, especially Latinos.  McCain’s pick of “Joe the Plumber” and Palin’s pick of “Joe Six-pack,” shows they’ve grown out-of touch with mainstream voters.

            When the Republican Party was formed in 1856 by anti-slavery activists, the traditional Whig Party fell into disrepute.  Rove’s theory about exploiting evangelicals was based on a false premise about how Bush beat former Vice President Al Gore in 2000.  Rove read too much into Bush’s squeaker, actually decided in the U.S. Supreme Court, when they ended Florida’s manual recount.  He misread Bush’s loyalty to religious conservatives as responsible for his narrow victory.  When you look at the record, it’s clear that Gore ran a poor campaign and former President Bill Clinton’s Monica Lewinsky sex scandal turned off many voters, so-called “Clinton fatigue.”  Sept. 11 rocketed Bush’s approval ratings into the stratosphere, helping him get reelected in 2004.  Only a year-and-a-half into the Iraq War, voters weren’t willing to change horses in 2004, narrowly defeating Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.).

            McCain’s campaign has run out of gas before Nov. 4 with nothing left in the tank but hot-air. “Obviously, we’ve had a lot of ups and downs in the course of this race, and the one that that has been the standard that the McCain campaign has created is that we fight back,” said Davis, giving a truer picture of the sinking feeling inside the McCain campaign.  Davis knows that no management team deserves to be hired again with the GOP track record over the past eight years.  Whether you blame it on Bush or not, the Party must suck it up and take its lumps.  When the dust settles after next Tuesday, the GOP must take an honest inventory of what went wrong.  Already thinking of Palin in 2012 spells the end of Republican Party as we know it.  Whether it goes the way of the Whigs is anyone’s guess.  One thing’s for sure:  Rove “genius” and dynasty is now in the wrecking yard.

  John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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