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Putin Counters Pro-Western Ukraine Vote
by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700
Copyright
October 29, 2014
All Rights Reserved.
Countering a pro-Western vote Sunday, Oct. 26,
62-year-old Russian President Vladir Putin defied attempts to settle the
Ukrainian conflict, backing an independence vote for pro-Russian separatists in
Southeastern Ukraine. Under
sanctions from the U.S. and European Union, the Russian ruble and stock market
have slid to post-Soviet lows, mirroring Russia’s isolation from the world
economy. When the G8 booted Putin
out March 24, only three weeks after Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine, the
Kremlin promised to find other places to do business. While paying lip service to ending
the Ukrainian sovereignty crisis, backing a independence vote throws gasoline on
an already smoldering crisis.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Oct. 28 that Russia would accept
Kiev’s pro-Western vote, only to find that Putin backs an independence vote
Southeastern Ukraine.
Putin sees any pro-European interest in Ukraine as encroachment on
Russia’s backyard. Accusing
President Barack Obama of destabilizing the world, perhaps pushing old Cold War
rivals to eventual war. Putin can’t
stomach former Soviet Republics rejecting business and security ties with the
Kremlin, instead opting for closer relations with the West. Former Soviet satellites in the
Baltics, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, now members of NATO, asked for more
security after Putin’s actions raised red flags over the future of the Baltics. Putin’s game playing in Ukraine
makes newly minted Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s work more difficult,
trying to end the war against pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk. Putin’s decision to back an
independence vote is exactly the same game he played in Crimea, when an
independence vote passed overwhelmingly March 17.
Putin counters Kiev’s pro-Western
vote by backing pro-Moscow petitions in Southeastern Ukraine. Secretary of State John Kerry sees Putin’s backing of a pro-Moscow vote in Southeastern
Ukraine “a clear violation of the commitments made by both Russian and the
separatists” for a ceasefire and truce.
Putin’s backing of a pro-separatist vote in Southeastern Ukraine thumbs
his nose a U.S. and EU sanctions, not likely to end anytime soon. Poroshenko promised concessions to
pro-Russian separatists, offering them unprecedented autonomy as long as they
stay part of Ukraine’s Kiev-based federal government. Moscow wants $5.3 billion in past
due energy purchases, threatening to maintain the cut-off during the long cold
winter. German Chancellor Angel
Merkel urged Putin to resolve financial issues before Ukrainians suffer
hardships without natural gas.
Backing a
pro-separatist vote in Southeastern Ukraine makes it more difficult for
Poroshenko to hold on to Donetsk.
Pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk have been in the forefront of an independence
movement, seeking not autonomy but independence from Kiev. If Kiev loses Southeastern Ukraine
because of the pro-Russian vote, Putin may get booted out of the G20. U.S. and EU officials have little
leverage in Ukraine other than applying punitive economic and travel sanctions. With tens-of-thousands of Russian
combat-ready forces amassed on the Ukrainian border, there’s little the West can
do short of war to stop Putin’s aggression.
Putin’s propaganda is so thick that most Russians see themselves, like
Putin, as the victim of Western aggression.
Putin blamed the Feb. 22 coup that evicted Russian-backed Ukrainian
President Viktor Yanukovich on the CIA.
Calling Sunday’s pro-Western election an “important milestone in
Ukraine’s democratic development,” Obama antagonized Moscow. Called a “victory for democracy,” EU
executive Jose Manuel Barroso, assured that Putin will push for the independence
vote in Donetsk. Putin sees any
pro-Western influence in Ukraine as interference in
Russia’s backyard. Annexing
Crimea March 1, Putin sees the pro-Western revolution led back in February by
former Ukrainian heavyweight champion Vitali Klitschko as direct CIA
interference into Russian territory.
If Southeastern Ukraine opts out of Ukraine, there’s little Poroshenko
can do to stop it. No Western
power—including NATO—is willing to go to war against Russia to save Ukraine’s
sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Only more sanctions, isolation and rejection on the global stage will
cause Putin to rethink his position.
Heading on a collision course with Moscow over Ukraine, the U.S. and EU
plan to continue and ratchet up the sanctions on Moscow. While Putin looks to China and India
to make up lost energy sales, the international community has grown leery of
Russia’s aggressive actions. Unless
Putin returns Crime to Ukraine and backs off its support of a pro-Russian
independence vote, the U.S. and EU will have no choice but to further isolate
Russia from the global economic community.
Evicting Putin from the G20 would send a loud message to Moscow that it’s
not OK to bully former Soviet republics for leaning toward the West. It’s disingenuous for Putin and
Lavrov to accept Kiev’s pro-Western vote, while, at the same time, back a
separatist vote in Donetsk like the did in Crimea March 17. More global isolation and economic
sanctions is the only way left to get Putin to back down.
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