by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Octorber 28, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

onsidered all but dead, the presidential hopes of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) just got brighter, after months of chaos, watching his campaign organization unravel over last summer. Slowly but surely, the TV debates have helped McCain's cause, looking more steady and experienced than his upstart colleagues, especially former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Mass. Gov. Mit Romney. McCain watched patiently while Giuliani and Romney bloodied each other, trading barbs about their records, ignoring other candidates and assuming both had a lock on GOP front-runner. Once considered a shoe-in for the nomination, the 71-year-old former Vietnam POW looks relaxed, playful and presidential, content to play underdog, while Giuliani and Romney slug-it-out. “I'm happy with where we are,” McCain said, watching his poll numbers steadily rise.

      Of all the GOP candidates, McCain, whose past maverick status placed him at odds with the Republican establishment, finds himself mirroring President George W. Bush on the campaign's most pivotal issue: Iraq. Unexpected convergent events in Iraq now favor McCain, where the U.S. military appears to be making progress. U.S. and civilian casualty rates have dropped precipitously in Oct., lending credibility to Bush's surge strategy, where al-Qaida terrorists, Shiite and Sunni insurgents have been pushed out of Baghdad, leaving the area less violent. “Its [al-Qaida] presence has been significantly reduced and its activity and freedom of action have been degraded,” said U.S. top Iraq commander David Petreus, making good on his Sept. 10 testimony before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee that Bush's troop surge was working, despite skeptics on both sides of the aisle.

      Improvements in Iraq help McCain, whose steadfast belief in the U.S. military rankled war critics who saw little progress. While supporting the president's recent troop surge, McCain complained for some time about past policy, leaving too few troops to manage an effective Iraq operation. Positive news in Iraq has helped McCain's campaign, giving the once beleaguered candidate new life. “Lots of people pronounced him dead on the table. It's fair to say he went into a vegetative state. Now he's clearly showing signs of life,” said GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio. What makes McCain's comeback viable are objections for other GOP candidates. Romney and Giuliani have little appeal to religious conservatives, who have trouble with Mitt's Mormon faith and Rudy's fast N.Y. lifestyle. Long-awaited candidate, former Sen. Fred Thomson (R-Tenn.), has proved disappointing.

      Before McCain's campaign hit the skids last summer, McCain was considered the odds-on favorite. After all, he was the heir-apparent after losing the nomination to Bush in 2000. He has the most experience and most distinguished war record of all GOP candidates. Lest anyone forget, McCain also has the greatest crossover appeal to Democrats and independents, citing his maverick track record, frequently joining Democrats, much to the chagrin of the GOP, in common causes over his 4-term senate career. Like the late President Ronald Reagan, McCain possesses an eternal youthfulness, conveyed through an acerbic wit and enthusiasm, defying his age and history. While there are no doubt obstacles, including limited funds, to McCain's candidacy, he's making up ground on Romney and Giuliani. McCain has less objections from religious and social conservatives.

      Unlike Romney, Giuliani and Thomson, McCain offers a more balanced candidate with a proven track record in military affairs and foreign policy at a time of great national peril. McCain performs an adroit balancing act, sympathizing with Iraq's human and financial toll, while, at the same time, showing a steady hand about the importance of a U.S. victory. With fortunes improving in Iraq, it's going to put more pressure on Democrats to support Bush's Iraq policy, raising concerns to voters about whether Democrats are prepared to manage national security. McCain directly benefits by his patient support for the Iraq war and his belief that the U.S. has no option other than victory. Most Democrats, with the possible exception of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), have painted themselves into the antiwar corner. McCain's position has remained steadfast.

      McCain finds himself in the unique position of peaking at the right time. With two months left to Iowa and New Hampshire and only one more GOP TV debate, McCain could make up more ground on Giuliani and Romney. McCain offers a proven track record of working with Democrats on important national issues. He hasn't shown the kind of partisan zeal that's left the country divided into red and blue states. Whoever becomes the next president, they will have to show bipartisan appeal, something sadly missing in both Democrat and GOP candidates. “We've got to hustle for the next few weeks and see where we are,” said McCain strategist Charlie Black, pleased with the candidate's recent progress. If McCain lets Giuliani and Romney continue to brawl, he could change the whole game, finding himself the consensus candidate heading into Iowa and New Hampshire.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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