by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright October 28, 2004
All Rights Reserved.

lugging it out in battleground states, President George W. Bush finds himself in hot water only days before Nov. 2. If present trends hold, Bush stands to lose Ohio, a key Midwestern industrial state not lost by a successful Republican candidate in over 100 years. Even with a Florida win, Bush can't afford to lose Ohio's 20 electoral votes or count on winning unreliable states he lost in 2000. Ohio was lost only twice by Democrats Harry S. Truman in 1948 by less that one percent and by John F. Kennedy in 1960 by four percent. Despite being GOP country in recent years, Bush won Ohio by only four percent in 2000. A recent Los Angeles Times poll spots Kerry a six percent lead with only five days left. What looks bad for Bush is that Ohio voters disapprove of his handling of both Iraq and the economy, where the state has lost 232,000 jobs since Bush took office.

      Evaluating the Times' poll, it appears that Bush's message has fallen on deaf ears. His strategy in Ohio, as in other battleground states, has focused almost exclusively on touting his success in Iraq and the war on terror, while denigrating Kerry as too weak to lead. Losing Ohio's 20 electoral votes would force Bush to pull off upsets in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Mexico and hold onto Iowa. According to the Times' poll, Bush's approval ratings in Ohio are 47%, reflecting Ohioans' frustrations, especially with the economy. What tells the story is Kerry's 20% lead over Bush on who can best manage the economy. Like an Alaskan glacier, Ohio's economy won't be turning around before Nov. 2. Five days before the election, the White House is sweating bullets. To repeat, no Republican has won office or reelection in over 100 years without winning Ohio.

      While not letting up in Ohio, the GOP has waged a fierce battle in Florida, where the loss of 27 electoral votes would spell curtains for Bush. With Kerry surging, Bush must hang onto the states he won in 2000 or bag other states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Mexico. Recent trends have those states tilting toward Kerry, though by the slimmest of margins. Yet the fact remains that should current trends hold it's unlikely that Bush can pull it off. A sluggish economy and bad news in Iraq threatens to upend Bush's momentum. Recent reports about missing explosives in Iraq have put the administration on the defensive, with time running out. Regardless of when the explosives were looted from Iraq's Al Qaqaa's weapons' dump, Bush contends with another piece of bad news. Meanwhile, Kerry continues to hammer away at Bush's record.

      With a frenzied turnout to see former President Bill Clinton return to the campaign trail with Kerry in Philadelphia, it could spoil Bush's plans for an upset in Pennsylvania. High voter turnout spells trouble for the GOP, where voter registration favors the Democrats. Traditional polling giving Bush a narrow lead doesn't factor in first time voters and last minute fence-sitters who tend to vote against incumbents. While national polls place Bush slightly ahead, a dramatic switch could occur on Election Day. Worries about repeating 2000 might be overblown, since the electoral map could shift quickly on Nov. 2. Kennedy beat Nixon in 1960 by 118,574 popular votes and 84 electoral votes. Compared to Bush's four-electoral-vote victory against Al Gore in 2000, Kennedy's margin seemed extravagant. On Election Day, Kerry or Bush could wind up the same way.

      Over the last few weeks, Bush has narrowed his talking points to Iraq and the war on terror. Recent polls have shown that Bush beats Kerry on defense and national security. If the LA Times' poll is correct, Bush loses those pivotal issues to Kerry in Ohio. In Pennsylvania, like Ohio, Kerry bests Bush by nine percent on the economy. But on the more important issue of who can create more jobs, Kerry beats Bush by 19%, a whopping margin when you consider Pennsylvania lost 70,000 jobs. Looking at the bigger picture, it's clear that the economy and jobs still weigh heavily in key states. It's far more difficult for an incumbent to promise better times when he's had four years to deliver. With bad news on Iraq blanketing the airwaves, Bush finds it difficult changing the conversation to a rosy economic outlook. Economically depressed voters fear unemployment more than terrorism.

      There's no question that campaign 2004 centered on Iraq and the war on terror. But it's also clear in battleground states that the economy still counts. Trends in Ohio, Pennsylvania and elsewhere indicate that voters are more concerned about economic survival than promoting democracy in Iraq. By “staying on point” about Iraq and the war on terror, the White House gambled that the economy was no longer the key issue in battleground states. Voters must now decide the basic issue on Nov. 2: Whether they can afford another four years following the same path. If the Times' poll tells the story, voters cross partisan lines when it comes to their pocket books. Clinton's face back in the news puts a halo around Kerry when it comes to the stock market and economy. Before casting their ballots, voters must still ask themselves whether, as the late President Reagan put it, they're better off.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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