by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Oct. 25, 2006
All Rights Reserved.

atching the GOP ship careen toward the rocks, President George W. Bush seized the wheel, hoping to reassure disgruntled voters that Iraq was still salvageable. Mounting U.S. casualties belie White House claims that either Iraq's new government or the U.S. military is winning the war. “We're winning an we will win, unless we leave before the job is done,” Bush told a White House press conference, now used for propaganda and political theater more than informing the press. Incumbency gives Bush a distinct PR advantage, using briefings to help avert a disaster on Election Day. Republicans have all but conceded the House of Representatives, likely to hand House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) her new job, while the U.S. Senate hangs by a thread on the outcome of a few key states. Bush knows that the fate of Nov. 7 hinges on Iraq.

      Less than two weeks before midyear elections, GOP fortunes pivot around voters' perceptions of Iraq, something dogging the White House for months. There's little good news to report other than rising death tolls and growing chaos. No one knows for sure what the president means when he says, “we're winning and we will win,” or, for that matter, what victory looks like. Talking tough and handing ultimatums to Iraq's Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki hasn't worked, after repeated Pentagon and congressional warnings to speed up the timetable for taking over security from U.S. forces. Estimating Iraq needs another 12-18 month to manage its security, Iraq's top U.S. commander Gen. George Casey sounded like a broken record. Casey's promise depends on the illusion that Iraq's military is not infiltrated by insurgents loyal to radical Sunnis and renegade Shiite militias.

      Bush signaled his growing impatience with Maliki, whose power base is supported by radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose 10,000-plus al-Mahdi militia operates with the blessing of the prime minister. Maliki knows he's a bullet away from radical Sunnis and Saddam's Baathists who seek overthrow what they regard as a puppet regime. Al-Maliki uses al-Sadr's army as a de facto security force, knowing the extent of infiltration and corruption in his own military. Raiding Moqtada's stronghold in Sadr City, the U.S. military caught Maliki off guard, despite his lip service to end the reign of Shiite militias and death squads. Maliki plays a dangerous game of both sides against the middle, hiding his loyalty to al-Sadr and radical Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Bush shows both frustration and tolerance of Maliki, whose days appear numbered.

      Before Nov. 7, the White House must show resolve and give optimistic forecasts, despite inescapable facts on the ground. Waging a fierce battle to save the senate's GOP majority hasn't stopped some Republicans from telling the truth. “We're on the verge of chaos, and the current plan is not working,” said Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.), breaking ranks with the White House. While Graham tells the truth about Iraq, the White House is more concerned about selling GOP voters before the midyear election. “The events of the past month have been a serious concern to me and a serious concern to the American people,” said Bush, acknowledging the hefty U.S. death toll but failing to acknowledge rising casualties over the past year. Knowing the stakes, Bush pulled out all the stops, drawing the spurious link between Iraq and Sept. 11 or future terrorist attacks on American soil.

      Heating up the rhetoric helps Bush remind voters why they should vote for Republicans. Since the Iraq war, the White House has done a good job of painting Democrats as weak on defense and national security. Linking Iraq to the war on terror plays to Bush's strengths as seen by voters. “If we do not defeat the terrorists or extremists in Iraq, they will gain access to vast oil reserves and use Iraq as a base to overthrow moderate governments across the broader Middle East,” said Bush, selling the White House's latest excuse for war. “They will launch new attacks on America from this new safe haven,” finishing the close for voters dumb enough to believe Bush's fairytale. Only Bush's loyal base still believe that Iraq's terrorists had something to do with Sept. 11. Linking Iraq to future terrorist attacks is Bush's best strategy to get out the vote on Nov. 7.

      Before Nov. 7, the White House will continue pounding the link between Iraq and war on terror. Bush's low approval ratings of under 40%, largely tied to Iraq, hurt GOP prospects heading into midyear elections. No one can say the White House hasn't been on the same page since Cruise Missiles hit Baghdad March 20, 2003. Three-and-a-half years later, the public finally wised up, not buying the same old excuses about how Iraq's new military will replace U.S. troops. With October's death toll approaching 100, it's a bitter reminder of Iraq's failure. “Our goals are unchanging, but we are flexible in our methods to achieve those goals,” said Bush, no longer saying the U.S. must “stay the course.” Everyone wants “victory” but Iraq's relentless insurgency and undeniable chaos requires more than a change in tactics. After Nov. 7, Bush must face reality and really help rescue U.S. troops.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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