McCain's Miscalculation

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright October 24, 2008
All Rights Reserved.                    

     Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) beat some powerhouse candidates en route to the Republican presidential nomination, including dispatching once frontrunner former N.Y. Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Massachusetts’s Gov. Mitt Romney.  Ohio and Texas put McCain over the top March 4, a full three months before Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il) finally put away Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) June 3 after the South Dakota and Montana primaries.  McCain’s primary victory was a cakewalk compared to Barack’s, whose eventual victory came with price.  Hillary pushed Barack to the wall, beating up the 47-year-old junior Illinois senator until the final voters were tallied in Montana.  Hillary ran a far more bruising campaign than McCain, whose major blunder involved picking Aug. 29 Alaska Gov. Sara Palin, a lightening rod for right wing ideology and dissent.

            McClain picked Palin because she’s a “maverick,” like the rebellious former Vietnam prisoner of war, whose reputation for bucking the system preceded his White House run.  Since declaring Feb. 28, 2007, McCain has cozied-up to President George W. Bush, hoping to win support of the president’s elusive base.  Despite endorsing Bush’s tax cuts and declaring himself pro-life, McCain couldn’t sway the base, preferring during the primaries former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a former Baptist preacher and favorite with evangelicals.  Watching the eventual presidential nominee wow Democratic National Convention, McCain felt he had to do something radical to stem what looked like unstoppable momentum.  His brain-trust, including chief strategists, Steve Schmidt and Charlie Black and campaign manger Rick Davis urged McCain to pick the little-known Alaska governor.

            McCain’s strategists hoped to pick-up disgruntled Hillary supporters, something improbable when you consider Palin’s reactionary bent.  Hillary supporters weren’t about to endorse an XX chromosome without embracing a typical feminist agenda, especially Roe v. Wade, the federal right to abortion.  Within two weeks after delivering her ballsy, Dem-bashing acceptance speech Sept. 4, Palin’s popularity plummeted among Reagan Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans.  Only 28% of the electorate, corresponding to Bush’s current approval ratings, supports Palin.  Recent polls have shown abysmal support among crossover Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans.  McCain’s once-thought of brilliant pick blew up in his face, leaving his campaign in shambles.  While McCain insists everyone got it wrong, Palin has been a disaster.

            When Palin’s “troopergate” problems hit the headlines Aug. 30, only one day after McCain announced his VP pick, the impulsive choice hit the campaign like a bad virus.  Things worsened Oct. 11 when a Republican-leaning state ethics panel found Palin  guilty of an ethics breach for firing State Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan July 11 for refusing to fire Palin’s ex-brother-in-law state trooper Mike Wooten.  Apart from this embarrassment, it’s Palin’s political views that have proven so damaging to McCain.  Picking Palin killed McCain’s chances of attracting Reagan Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans.  Had he picked either former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney or former Penn. Gov. Tom Ridge, McCain would have given Obama a run for his money.  Whether he would have won is anyone’s guess.  More honest analysis has McCain losing either way.

            Claiming he has one more comeback left, McCain barnstormed over an ever-shrinking electoral map, showing Obama leading in most battleground states.  With 11 days left before the election, McCain finds himself spread all over the map, unable to stop his opponent’s momentum heading into Nov. 4.  Many expected McCain to surge in the polls after shellacking Obama the final debate Oct. 16 at Hofstra University in Hemstead, Long Island N.Y.  Watching Obama take a beating was painful for those expecting responses to McCain’s attacks.  Obama kept his cool and let McCain stay on the attack, treating viewers to what looked like a hothead.  Four days later, McCain suffered another blow watching former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell endorse Obama on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”  Since then, McCain’s numbers have been in a kind of freefall.

            McCain failed his first test of presidential decision-making picking Palin as his running mate.  Despite McCain defending her credentials, Powell indicated she was not qualified for VP, let alone president.  He echoed the same sentiments of other Republicans, including Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), also agreeing that Palin lacked the experience and expertise for either West Wing or the Oval Office.  Recent polls show that McCain’s slide correlated as much with Palin as the deteriorated U.S. economy.  Picking Palin put considerable doubt in voters’ minds about McCain’s judgment, causing the tectonic shift to Barack.  McCain has hit Barack with everything but the kitchen sink and still finds his campaign in quicksand.  With Bush’s approval ratings sinking to new lows, Palin captured his ever-shrinking base.  After Nov. 4, McCain will have a lot of time to figure out what went wrong.

  John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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