by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Oct. 20, 2006
All Rights Reserved.

oving the world a few cautious steps away from the brink, North Korea's eccentric leader Kim Jong-Il apologized to China for the Oct. 9 one-kiloton nuclear test, reassuring his powerful ally his government won't conduct more atomic tests. Before Kim's surprise announcement, speculation swirled about the growing chances of a second, more powerful test, leading U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to make an urgent visit to the region. Visiting Japan, Rice reassured the world's only nation to endure a nuclear attack the U.S. would defend it against North Korean aggression. Japan restated its opposition to nuclear weapons, forcefully opposing Kim's efforts to build atomic bombs. Rice was hard-pressed to commit U.S. resources at a time the U.S. finds itself bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Rice reassured Asian allies that the U.S. would defend their interests.

      Ruling out bilateral talks, the White House wants to resume six-party talks, with China taking the lead with Kim's rogue regime. Threatening to cut off Kim's food and oil supply, China told North Korea there'd be draconic consequences if he didn't back down. When China agreed Oct. 14 to the Security Council Resolution imposing tough sanctions, Kim could no longer count on his main ally to tolerate his atomic ambitions. Kim likes to call the U.S. the world's biggest threat to global peace, prompting his country to pursue A-bombs. While China and Russia backed away from military intervention, they found other leverage to influence Kim. When China ordered four banks to freeze money transfers, it finally got Kim's attention. When China threatened to cut off the DPRK's cheap oil supplies through its pipeline, Kim decided to suspend nuclear tests.

      China's response threw Kim for a loop, hoping his once loyal ally would support his regime's illicit atomic program. Viewing the crisis selfishly, China didn't want to deal with the possible streams of refugees should Kim lose his grip on power. Implementing U.N. sanctions, especially bank transfers, proved China stepped into a leadership role in the region. China's reluctance to implement sanctions stemmed from its concerns about North Korea's desperate internal state, unable to feed and manage its population. When China's special Pyongyang envoy Tang Jiaxuan delivered a “strong message” from Chinese President Hu Jintao threatening to cut off cheap oil and food supplies, Kim, an eccentric but not stupid leader, apologized and got in line. China knows the chaos, especially on its border, that would ensue from a regional war with North Korea.

      North Korea has sough bilateral talks with the U.S. to extract economic and political concessions. Kim won concessions from former President Bill Clinton in 1994 in exchange for suspending his plutonium, reprocessing program. When that moratorium proved fraudulent as evidenced by Kim's Oct. 9 atomic test, President George W. Bush decided to stick with six-party, multilateral talks. “If the U.S. makes a concession to some degree, we will also make a concession to some degree, whether it be bilateral talks or six-party talks,” Kim was quoted as telling an unnamed Beijing source, opening the diplomatic door. “We have no plans for additional nuclear tests,” Kim reportedly told Chinese envoy Tang Jiaxuan, confirming that the North Korean's regime had finally acquiesced. Kim's brinkmanship hit a dead end when Hu threatened to cut off North Korea's cheap food and oil supply.

      U.N. ambassador John Bolton deserves special credit for relentlessly pursuing sanctions in the Security Council. Without getting China and Russia to accept sanctions, Kim would have continued to defy attempts to stop his nuclear program. “Fortunately my visit this time has not been in vain,” Tang told Rice, believing the door was open for six-party talks to end North Korea's pursuit of A-bombs. Rice's trip to the region helped encourage the Chinese to take the lead in getting Kim to back down. “We hope all relevant parties can maintain cool-headedness, adopt a prudent and responsible attitude and stick to the general direction of peaceful resolution through dialogue,” said Chinese foreign minister Li Zhaoxing, showing the kind of leadership needed to resolve the crisis peacefully. China, Russia, Japan and South Korea wish to avoid a military confrontation at all costs.

      China's new role as power broker and peacemaker is welcomed relief to the U.S. government. Whatever the past problems with China, it's clear that the once fanatical communist regime values prosperity over ideology. Growing prosperity and strongly entrenched U.S. economic ties helped push China to play peacemaker. “We are willing to strengthen consultations and cooperation with all parties to break the stalemate and restart the six-party talks as soon as possible,” said Li, believing there's a real opening to ending North Korea's feverish pursuit of A-bombs. North Korea's capitulation should help to energize stalled nuclear talks with Iran, another festering wound on the world stage. With Chinese currency no longer tied to the U.S. dollar, the Chinese can't afford to have a regional crisis destabilize its economy, proving prosperity is the world's best diplomacy.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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