by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Octorber 18, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

ore conspicuous than ever, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin seeks to pay back the U.S. for supporting Osama bin Laden and his mujahedeen fighters, eventually evicting the Soviets from Afghanistan Feb. 15, 1989. Only eight months after the Red Army left Kabul, the Berlin Wall came tumbling down Nov. 9, 1989, signaling the end of the Stalinist regime that once sought world domination. Nine long years in Afghanistan, pushed former President Jimmy Carter in 1980 to cancel U.S. participation in the Moscow Summer Olympics, costing the Soviets untold billions, draining the Russian economy and accelerating the total collapse in 1991 of what the late President Ronald Reagan called the “evil empire.” Russia lost at least 14,453 soldiers, sustained 53,753 injuries and vanquished its superpower status, allowing U.S. support of Afghan rebels to defeat the Soviet military.

      President George W. Bush faces a daunting challenge trying to contain a growing Iranian nuclear threat, where a clandestine enrichment program races toward building its first A-bomb. Visiting Tehran for the first time since Stalin in 1943, Putin sends a loud message to the U.S. that Russia intends to control its own backyard. With U.S. battling to control Iraq and Afghanistan, Putin shook hands with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, supporting Iran's right to peacefully enrich uranium. Russia and China oppose further U.N. Security Council sanctions, halting Iran's uranium enrichment program. Ahmadinejad has rejected calls for Iran to suspend its enrichment program, citing the Persian nation's rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. After meeting with Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Putin warned the U.S. against military action.

      Bush has been ratcheting up the gunboat diplomacy, calling a nuclear-armed Iran a prelude to WW III. “I've told people that if you're interested in avoiding WW III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them [Iran] from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon,” said Bush, whose approval ratings have sunk to an all-time low under 30%. With former Iraq commander Gen. Richard Sanchez calling Iraq a “mess,” Bush can't afford to rock the boat too far, engaging Iran or any other country, especially Russia. For over six-and-a-half years, Bush allowed Putin to dismantle Russia's fledgling free press and turn back the clock on Democratic reforms begun under his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin. Putin now seeks to remain in power indefinitely by becoming prime minister, shifting power away from the presidency and taking control of the Russian parliament.

      When the House Foreign Affairs Committee [27-23] approved a resolution calling the Ottoman Turks [1915-21] massacre of Armenians genocide, Turkey threatened to break off diplomatic relations, preventing vital supplies from reaching Iraq. Turkey's parliament also authorized Oct. 17 cross-border raids by the armed forces into Northern Iraq to neutralize Kurdish rebels called the PKK. Turkey's possible military action caused oil prices to skyrocket Oct. 18 above $90 a barrel. While Putin plays his Ahmadinejad card, Bush can't rock the boat, threatening military action against Iran. Putin's right when he says there's no “objective data” linking Iran to developing an A-bomb. Putin also knows that rampant speculation about weapons of mass destruction got the U.S. trapped into the most costly nation-building project since the Marshall Plan following WW II.

      Oil hitting $90 a barrel is a brutal reminder of the fragile nature of the world fossil fuel economy. With the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates, it's convincing proof the U.S. teeters on recession. Spiraling oil prices could plunge the U.S. economy into recession. Any military action against Tehran would send shockwaves through the U.S. and world economies. No importing country would be immune to the oil shock, skyrocketing the price from its currently inflated levels. “We are making it clear to Turkey that we don't think it is in their interest to send troops into Iraq,” Bush said at news conference, hoping to calm world oil markets. Softening the gunboat diplomacy with Iran would also help offset Putin's attempt to sabotage U.S. influence. With presidential primaries only three months away, Bush needs to give the GOP a break and tone down the rhetoric.

      Iraq has given Putin and Ahmadinejad the perfect opening to weaken U.S. regional influence. Both know that the U.S. can ill-afford another costly military adventure with little chance of success. With Bush's approval ratings at historic lows, it's too late for him to command the consensus needed for another military adventure, opening the door for Putin and Ahmadinejad. While there's little hope for getting tougher sanctions on the Security Council, Bush must focus in his remaining days on cleaning up the mess in Iraq. He can't afford to leave the next president an even a bigger mess than the one left today. Instead of playing into Putin's hands, Iran should take a backburner, while the White House finds a coherent exit strategy in Iraq. Putin seems hell-bent on containing U.S. influence, reclaiming Russia's superpower status and maintaining his grip on the Kremlin.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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