McCain's Last Shot

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright October15, 2008
All Rights Reserved.                    

      When GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) sits at table with CBS News anchor Bob Shieffer for the last debate at Hofstra University tonight, he’ll make his final pitch to undecided voters.  McCain needs a lucky knockout punch to defeat Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.), whose campaign continues to power ahead while McCain is stuck in reverse.  McCain looks for that special something that can turn things around:  If only he had the magic key for the economy; if he only had the answers on Iraq; and if he only had the silver bullet for distressed homeowners.  For months before the economy crashed, McCain touted President George W. Bush many accomplishments, telling voters that the “fundamentals of the economy were strong.”  In the last debate, McCain must sell voters that he’s different that Bush.

            McCain and his running mate Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin recently stopped slamming Barack’s character when they lost over two points in the polls.  Only after the strategy backfired did both candidates stop.  McCain will attempt to paint Barack in tonight’s debate as a “tax-and-spend” liberal, whose spending plans will bankrupt the country.  He’s got only one small problem:  Tax and spending policies of his party have already wrecked the economy.  Obama need only point out the GOP track record, leaving the country with record deficits and broken economy.  Were it not for draconic intervention by the Federal Reserve Board, the country could—and still may—face a 1929-type depression.  GOP ads asking, “Who is the real Barack Obama?” attempt to paint a sinister picture to the paranoid-prone voters, spreading innuendo and gossip about Barack’s secret “Muslim” life.

            When McCain confronted an angry crowd at a town-hall in Lakeville, Minn., accusing Obama of being an Arab, he was dealing with his character assassination accusing Barack of “palling around with terrorists.  While McCain and Palin don’t take their words seriously, some voters can’t separate campaign rhetoric from reality.  Since McCain and Palin’s character attacks boomeranged, it’s unlikely McCain will dwell on innuendo in tonight’s debate.  McCain hopes to attack Barack, knock him off-balance and force him into a game-changing error.  Judging by the last two debates, it’s far more likely McCain will trip on his shoelaces.  Barack’s cool-and-collected demeanor has thrown McCain for a loop, unable to score points and change the race’s dynamics.  McCain hopes to show the Barack was not ready for primetime, raising doubts in undecided voters.

`           Much has been said in recent weeks of how the deteriorated economy helped Obama widen his lead since the Sept. 1-4 Republican National Convention.  Picking Palin Aug. 29 handed Barack an early Christmas gift.  While loved by Bush’s ever-shrinking base, Palin frightens swing voters, accounting, even more than the economy, for McCain’s slide in the polls.  Another thing greatly overlooked is Obama’s charisma and uncanny ability to attract voters.  His Aug.. 28 acceptance speech at Denver’s Mile High Stadium goes down as one of the greatest pieces of American oratory.  Let there be no mistake, McCain’s uphill battle runs against a vastly different Democratic landscape.  Whatever bitterness remained from Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) loss to Obama, it’s given way to a Party united to beat McCain.  McCain still struggles to excite Bush’s elusive base.

            McCain has reinvented himself too many times, now offering the most socialist mortgage buyback plan in the nation’s history.  Throwing a bone to Bush’s base by picking Palin doesn’t change McCain’s stripes that run counter to his idol, former President Ronald Reagan.  Independents and crossover Democrats can’t stomach the idea to putting Palin a heartbeat from the presidency.  It’s one thing to help cash-strapped financial institutions but still another to use the bailout to pay off misguided homeowners that bit off more than they could chew.  McCain’s plan, announced in the Oct. 7 Nashville debate, to slash domestic spending, runs afoul with the vast majority of voters already feeling punished enough by today’s economic problems.  McCain has stubbornly defended Bush’s Iraq policy, seeking, at every turn, to take credit for the “surge,” rather than find a way out.

            Tonight’s debate promises some tense moments, especially for McCain who must take some risks.  Ahead on points, McCain must land a knockout punch to change his slide in the polls.  Slamming Obama won’t be enough to convince voters that McCain has a handle on what to do with the economy.  Everyday McCain appears with Palin, it’s a reminder to swing voters that his first major decision didn’t put “country first” but rather pandered to Bush’s shrinking base.  Why McCain felt compelled to go after a small  piece of the pie, only 26% of registered voters, is anyone’s guess.  Picking Palin was a bad omen, giving a free peek into McCain’s presidency.  “Fundamentally, McCain needs to change the frame of the race in 90-minutes,” said GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio, quipping, his only chance is “to go back in time.”  Tonight’s debate promises more jousting but no game-changer.

  John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyxing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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