by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Oct. 14, 2009
All Rights Reserved.

              Counting on help to restrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions in the U.N. Security Council, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, got little help from Russia.  Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, whose schedule precluded a direct meeting with Hillary, warned against intimidating Iran, insisting it was premature to talk about more sanctions.  After President Barack Obama scuttled plans for missile defense in Eastern Europe, the White House hoped the good will gesture would win more Russian support on the Security Council.  “There is no need to frighten the Iranians,” Putin told reporters in Beijing, after consummating a multibillion-dollar natural gas deal with the Peoples Republic of China.  To deal with mounting international pressure, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reluctantly agreed Oct. 1 to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

            U.S. authorities believe that Iran’s 11th-hour move was designed to placate the U.N., specifically Mohamed ElBaradei, behind whom the Tehran hides its feverish pursuit of nuclear weapons.  Iran agreed Oct. 1 in Geneva to permit ElBaradei back into Iranian nuclear facilities and allow a third party, perhaps Russia and France, to remove enriched uranium for reprocessing.  “Wee need to look for a compromise.  If a compromise is not found, and the discussions end in a fiasco, then we will see,” said Putin about the possibility of further U.N. sanctions.  White House officials hoped to have Russia lined up behind real sanctions designed to force Tehran from enriching uranium.  Obama has followed the doctrine of former President George W. Bush that the U.S. won’t permit Tehran to develop an A-bomb.  Putin has his eyes set back on the Russian presidency.

            Fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has less leverage with Iran.  Ahamdinejad, backed by Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, knows that the U.S. won’t open up a third front to stop Iran from enriching uranium.  Threats by the Bush administration and Israel haven’t stopped Tehran from building a new enrichment facility near the ancient city of Qom.  Russia has deep business ties with Tehran, collaborating on Iran’s multibillion-dollar Bushehr heavy-water reactor, potentially capable of producing weapons grade plutonium.  “And if now, before making any steps [toward holding talks] we start announcing sanctions, then we won’t be creating favorable conditions for them [talks] to end positively.  This why it is premature to talk about them now,” said Putin, leaning away from sanctions.  Putin’s position ties the U.S. hands to end Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

            Putin is well-aware of U.S. plans to escalate the Afghan War, something opposed by Moscow.  Putin doesn’t like to admit failure, especially where over 13,000 Russians went to their graves at the hands of the Taliban and Osama bin Laden’s mujahedeen fighters.  No one knows better than Putin about how the U.S. funded Bin Laden and, inadvertently, Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar to eventually topple the Russian-backed Afghan government.  With revenues from oil and natural gas dwindling, Putin has bigger fish to fry than cutting deals with Hillary to back more sanctions against Iran.  Rescinding Bush’s missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic was a smart move by Obama regardless of whether Putin backs sanctions.  Destablizing relations with Russia was bad foreign policy.  If the U.S. escalates the Afghan War, it’s better to be on friendly terms with Russia.

            Obama’s overture toward Russia has not gone unnoticed.  “We are being guided by what the head of the American state is saying,” said Putin.  “He said there would be no anti-missile shield in Europe.  We are satisfied with the statement, and to make assumptions what happens next is not quite right,” concerned that not backing more sanctions might result in a reversal of U.S. policy.  Putin knows Obama has a full plate battling unemployment, pulling the U.S. out of recession and fighting two wars.  He doesn’t have to cut deals with the U.S. on Iran to seek cooperation on host of mutual interests.  Whether admitted to or not, there’s little the U.S. can do without the Security Council to discourage Iran from enriching uranium.  Threatening more sanctions or military action does little other than push Iran to enrich more uranium and form tighter bonds with U.S. enemies.

            Putin reminded the White House that pressure doesn’t influence Russia’s decisions on the U.N. Security Council.  His wait-and-see approach serves Russia’s close business ties with Iran’s mullahs.  Putin isn’t about to rock the boat because Hillary seeks reciprocation for Barack’s decision to terminate missile defense in Eastern Europe.  “We treated the decision with reserve, calmly,” said Vladimir.  “In any case, the country’s leadership accepted it with understanding and gratitude.  We believe this was Obama’s right and courageous decision,” expressing appreciation for ending missile defense.  Looking at the big picture, Obama and his secretary of state would be well-advised to stop pressuring the Security Council for more sanctions.  Balancing Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy, all Security Council members have an equally vested interest in keeping Iran from getting the bomb.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.