by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Oct. 11, 2009
All Rights Reserved.

      With Presdient Barack Obama undecided about increasing U.S. forces in Afghanistan, former GOP presidential candidate Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) demanded the president move ahead with “deliberate speed” to increase U.S. forces.  U.S. Afghan Commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal, in a 66-page report, urged Obama to add up to 40,000 more troops, on top of the 21,000 Barack added in March.  Warning the White House that failure to act would be an “error of historic proportions,” McCain placed heat on the 48-year-old chief executive unwilling to repeat the mistakes of his predecessor President George W. Bush.  Bush surged troops in Iraq, eventually causing a dramatic reduction in U.S. casualties.  McCain believes there’s a parallel in Afghanistan calling for a dramatic troop increase.  But unlike Iraq, Afghanistan battles a homegrown Taliban nationalist Islamic movement.

            Speaking the CNN’s “State-of-the-Union” with John King, McCain urged Barack to follow McChrystal’s advice to add 40,000 troops to reverse a deteriorating security situation and growing Taliban insurgency.  McChrystal warned last month that without a sizable increase in troops the Afghan mission was doomed to failure.  “To disregard the requirements that have been laid out and agreed to by Gen [David] Petraeus and Adm. [Mike] Mullen would be an error of historic proportions,” said McCain, urging Barack to follow his generals’ advice.  But unlike Bush, Obama is trying to reassess the mission to determine whether (a) the current mission was winnable and (b) the current strategy should radically change.  U.S. and NATO forces are currently engaged in a blood counterinsurgency or guerrilla war with the Taliban and al-Qaida, causing an increase in U.S. casualty rates.

            Barack faces growing pressure from House and Senate Republicans to make good on his campaign promise of escalating the Afghan War.  Now that he’s commander-in-chief he realizes that things aren’t as black-or-white with respect to the Iraq and Afghan Wars.  Started Oct. 7, 2001 as Operation Enduring Freedom, the mission was to topple the Taliban and capture or kill Osama bin Laden.  While the Taliban indeed folded Nov. 14, 2001, Bin Laden remains at large orchestrating with his chief lieutenant Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, his global war on terror.  “I think the smart thing to do here –and I hope this is what the president’s going to do, and if he does, I think he’ll have broad support—is to listen to Gen. Petraeus and Gen. McChrystal,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kt.), referring largely what’s smart for the Republican Party, not Obama or the Democrats

            McCain and McConnell’s advice encourages Barack to repeat the mistakes of Bush, where the Iraq War turned out his Achilles Heel.  Already adding 21,000 troops in March, Barack finds himself in an unpopular war with no guarantee of success.  Even McChrystal acknowledged in his 66-page report there are no assurances even with a troop increase.  Without a troop increase, McChrystal does assure the current mission’s failure.  Obama hasn’t yet decided whether he should continue the Bush counterinsurgency strategy, instead focusing on getting Bin Laden with Predator Drones and Special Forces.  McCain rejects that approach as the same failed strategy before the “troop surge” in Iraq.  McCain agrees with McChrystal that only by increasing troops and going after the Taliban and al-Qaida can the U.S. make progress of neutralizing a growing rebel insurgency.

            Vice President Joe Biden advocates the use of high military technology and Special Forces, limiting the mission to a kind of police action against the perpetrators of Sept. 11.  “I do not,” said McChrystal, in response to whether he can win without 40,000 additional troops.  “And I think the great danger now is no an American pullout.  I think the great danger now is a half measure sort of  (to) trying to please all ends of the political spectrum,” referring to antiwar elements inside the Democratic Party.  Obama believes Gen. Petraeus, Mullen and McChrystal must follow orders from the White House, not as McCain urges, to follow generals’ advice.  Unlike Bush in Iraq, Barack knows he faces a far better organized insurgency, led by Taliban Islamic nationalistic forces.  Escalating the war without making major progress could hurt Democrats in next year’s midterm elections.

            Whether admitted to or not, there are real political consequences to escalating the Afghan War.  Bush found out the hard way watching his approval ratings plummet to the lowest for a modern U.S. president.  Regardless of whether or not the surge worked, Bush’s abysmal approval ratings dragged down the GOP.  There are few valid comparisons between Iraq and Afghanistan.  What worked in Iraq, may not in Afghanistan.  “The strategy that was developed by Gen. Petraeus, but also Gen. McChrystal as his strong arm, did succeed there,” said McCain, expecting the same results as Iraq..  If history is any guide, the Soviets spent 10 long bloody years in Afghanistan to no avail.  Like in Vietnam, it’s going to be difficult to break a nationalistic movement with guns and bullets.  Winning the hearts-and-minds of Afghans involves more than the U.S. military.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.