by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Oct. 11, 2006
All Rights Reserved.

orth Korea's eccentric chairman Kim Jong-Il couldn't stand Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stealing all the limelight over his nuclear confrontation the United Nations Security Council. Kim jumped on stage realizing that only his nuclear threats get any attention. On July 5, Kim hit the headlines test-firing a Taepodong-2 long-range ballistic missile designed, like the alleged Oct. 9 underground atomic test, to blow smoke, intimidating Western powers and his Asian neighbors. Recorded as a 4.2 on the Richter scale measuring earthquake intensity, the blast was estimated at around one kiloton or about the force of 1,000 tons of trinitrotoluene, the explosive chemical in TNT. While assumed by to be an A-bomb, U.S. officials couldn't confirm the type of explosion. North Korea reportedly spent years reprocessing plutonium from spent fuel-rods at its five-megawatt Yongbyon reactor.

      Kim's theatrics raise anxieties in Japan and South Korea. No one knows for sure whether North Korea's long-range missile test or its alleged atomic blast really worked. Last July, Pyongyang's vaunted intercontinental ballistic missile fizzled out after a few hundred miles, falling fall short of Kim's propaganda. Kim's recent “atomic” test either failed to deliver the expected blast-yield or was an outright fraud. China called for “punitive measures,” though Bejing has shown reticence to use harsh sanctions to assure U.N. compliance. Now faced with international pressure to restrain the North Korean dictator, China looks like it will go along with watered down sanctions. North Korea seeks direct talks with the U.S., claiming current U.S. foreign policy, threatening harsh sanctions and possible military action, pushed the repressive regime to develop its nuclear arsenal.

      All indications point toward a colossal bluff by Kim Jong-Il. Military experts believe North Korea's primitive nuclear program lacks the sophistication to consolidate technology into usable warheads. “The issue of future nuclear tests is linked to U.S. policy toward our country,” said North Korea's No. 2 leader Kim Yong Nam, blaming U.S. foreign policy for the current crisis. Responding to this point, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice ruled out military force against the impoverished regime. “There is no intention to invade or attack them,” Rice restated President George W. Bush's policy emphasizing multilateral diplomacy. Bush has ruled out direct talks, believing that pressure from other Asian countries remains the best option. North Korea's vaunted million-man army presents problems for the United States and South Korea, with only 29,000 troops near the demilitarized zone.

      Unlike Iraq, that neither possessed nor had access to weapons of mass destruction, North Korea feverishly sought nukes to augment its clout and deterrent capability. Like Iran's Ahmadinejad, Kim believes nukes give him bargaining power with the U.S. and its European and Asian allies. Kim's latest theatrics don't help Bush less than four weeks before midyear elections. Democrats have already exploited recent events, pointing fingers at Bush for allowing North Korea to get the bomb on his watch. “President Bush tries to talk tough, but he doesn't act smart,” said Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), whose recently found under-the-table real estate deal places his job in jeopardy. Sen. John McCain, a likely '08 presidential candidate, fired back, blaming former President Bill Clinton's 1994 North Korean pact, allowing Kim the latitude to kick-start his atomic program.

      U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan urged the U.S. to enter direct talks with Kim Jong-Il. Firing missiles and detonating A-bombs gives Kim leverage to extract concessions from the U.S., including the same cash, energy and incentives obtained in Clinton's 1994 pact to get Kim to stop his nuke program. Learning from Clinton's mistakes, Bush knows that progress can't be made without the help of China, Japan, South Korea and Russia. Direct talks would repeat the same mistakes where North Korea proved it couldn't be trusted. “Peace on the Korean Peninsula requires that these nations send a clear message to Pyongyang that its actions will not be tolerated,” said Bush, urging the U.N. Security Council to take decisive action imposing punitive sanctions. China and South Korea worry that punitive sanctions could backfire, pushing Kim to retaliate militarily.

      North Korea's past missile launches and Oct. 9 "nuclear" test was designed to give Kim clout heading into possible multilateral talks. Like Communist China and the former Soviet Union, Kim grandstands with his military to exaggerate power and bluff opponents from considering military options. Like his failed missile and atomic tests, Kim's so-called million-man army is also grossly hyped, designed to intimidate possible invaders. “Be assured that the alliance has the forces necessary to deter aggression, and should deterrence fail, decisively defeat any North Korean attack,” said Gen. B.B. Bell, the commanding U.S. general in South Korea. Called a “malignant narcissist” by George Washington University's Jerold M. Post, a former top profiler with the Central Intelligence Agency, Kim has mastered the art of propaganda, making him one of the world's best smoke blowers.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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