by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Oct. 8, 2006
All Rights Reserved.

early one month before midyear elections, the Republican Party is getting that sinking feeling, anticipating a possible loss of majority rule in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, with the Foley cyber-sex scandal stealing the headlines. More details emerge from some of Rep. Mark Foley's (R-Fl.) past victims, including an unnamed 21-year-old page with whom he had a real-life sexual encounter. Republicans find themselves unable to stop the media feeding frenzy currently monopolizing the news cycle. GOP officials hope they can change the subject sometime between now and Nov. 7, reversing the damage. With President George W. Bush stung with low approval ratings largely over Iraq, GOP candidates aren't getting much help. Falling gas prices, dropping federal deficits and historically low unemployment hasn't yet helped GOP candidates.

      Foley's shenanigans are only one small part of the GOP's crisis, now defending the Party's delayed response in dealing with a recognized sexual predator. House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) apologized but refused to step down, insisting his office did everything possible to stop Foley. “Anybody that hindered this in any kind of way, tried to step in the way of hiding this, covering it up, is going to have to step down. Whoever that is,” said Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), alluding to the House Speaker for whom the conservative Washington Times called for his resignation. Damage control begins with apologies but doesn't end with more excuses. Investigating the scandal, the House Ethics Committee wants to determine whether some key Republican leaders chose to suppress the Foley story to keep yet another scandal out of the news before the midyear elections.

      Republican problems stem from the fall of House Majority Leader Tom Delay (R-Tx.), forced out of office Sept. 28, 2005 for money laundering and lobbyist Jack Abramoff sentenced March 29 to 70 months for defrauding Indian tribes, corroborating Democratic claims of GOP corruption. Too much Republican bad news now weigh on voters heading into midyear elections. Several reputable polls show Democrats winning ground in competitive House and Senate races, potentially tipping the balance to a new majority on Election Day. When Rep. Thomas Reynolds (R-N.Y.), head of the Republican House Committee, cancelled his appearance on ABC's “This Week” with George Stephanapolos, it signaled GOP panic in the wake of the Foley sex scandal. Reynolds didn't want to answer more questions about when he told Speaker Hastert about Foley's problems.

      Reynolds, a Republican congressman from upstate N.Y., now faces an uphill battle holding onto his seat against upstart Democratic challenger Jack Davis, currently leading 48% to 33%, according to a Buffalo News/Zogby poll. Reynolds may be the first casualty in the growing Foley scandal, signaling a disturbing trend for the GOP heading into Nov. 7. Replacing Reynolds on “This Week,” the GOP sent Rep. Adam Putnam (R-Fl.) to stem the damage, saying Speaker Hastert did everything possible to deal with Foley. Putam insisted that Hastert “acted proactively, they acted aggressively, and with hours of the explicit e-mails coming to light, they demanded Foley's resignation.” Yet the record shows that Hastert's office actually waited months, if not years, before pressuring Foley to step down. Most analysts believe the GOP avoided disclosure to spare the Party more embarrassment.

      Putam told “This Week” he didn't think Democrats would get the 15 votes needed to takeover Congress Nov. 7. Most nonpartisan experts believe Democrats stand to gain around 30 seats, perhaps more. “This is going to be the most difficult 30 days in the last 12 years that we've been the majority party,” said Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.), giving more accurate picture than Putam, whose job involves derailing Democrats' momentum. Republicans want to refocus voters on sliding gas prices, job creation, low unemployment and national security, all Republican strengths. GOP candidates know that voters are more focused on the scandal du jour, now seizing precious momentum. “There's no oxygen” left for other issues, said Davis, concerned that many competitive races could tilt toward Democrats. Like radioactivity, too much bad news has hurt GOP candidates facing re-election.

      Foley's problems, while serious, add salt to GOP wounds heading into November. For better or worse, too many scandals and indictments have helped sour voters on Republican candidates, leading to renewed hopes for Democratic takeover in the midyear elections. While there's a month to go, saturation news coverage adds to Republican woes. “It certainly has put members all across the country in the position of having to answer uncomfortable questions about tawdry deeds of a former colleague,” admitted Putam, ignoring the bigger picture of GOP notoriety. Voters have spent too much time seeing corruption, scandals and indictments to ignore consequences on Republican candidates. As long as Foley consumes the national headlines, GOP prospects of retaining both houses of congress grow dim. Democrats need only kick back and let the national media do its job.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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