by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Oct. 5, 2009
All Rights Reserved.

         Faced with mounting pressure to halt its nuclear enrichment program, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili threw U.N. Security Council members for a loop, announcing they’d send enriched uranium to Russia or France for reprocessing.  Meeting for the first time in 30 years in Geneva, Jalili told U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns that Tehran was willing to send enriched uranium out the country.  Jalili also told Burns that Tehran would open in short order its yet-to-be-completed Qom enrichment plant to Mohamed ElBaradei’s U.N. inspectors. Six-party talks in Geneva with Tehran opened the possibility of settling Iran’s nuclear question, prompting the current stalemate ratcheting up world tensions.  While not approved by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the agreement would defuse tensions between Washington and Tehran.

            Meeting with U.S., China, Russia, France, Britain and Germany at lakeside villa outside Geneva, Iranian officials offered a new plan allowing Iran to continue enriching uranium.  Saying that the meeting “represented the start of what we hope will be an intensive process,” the E3+3 negotiating team offered a glimmer of hope that the years’ old stalemate could be resolved diplomatically.  Former President George W. Bush threatened a big stick, including possible military action, should Tehran not cease-and-desist enriching uranium.  Instead of suspending uranium enrichment, Tehran agreed-in- principle to send its Low Enriched Uranium {LEU] for reprocessing to Russia and France.  “Taking the step of transferring it low-enriched uranium to a third country would be a step towards building confidence that Iran’s program is peaceful,” said President Barack Obama.

            International Atomic Energy Agency Director Mohamed ElBaradei is due shortly in Tehran to begin inspecting Iran’s newly developed Qom enrichment facility.  ElBaraadi supports the principle of reprocessing Iran’s LEU in a third country because it could no longer be used for warheads.  Without proof, Western powers accused Tehran of secretly developing a nuclear weapons program, something Iran denies.  Whether admitted to or not, Tehran agreed the latest plan when they saw unified pressure within the Security Council for a new round of sanctions, including banning Iran’s petroleum exports.  Before the latest proposal, the U.S. wanted Iran to halt its nuclear enrichment program, not ship off fissile material to third parties.  While there’s up to 1,200 kg. or three-quarters of Tehran stockpile of LEU, allowing Iran to continue enriching could lead to clandestine abuses.

            Most U.S. officials see problems with Jalili’s proposal, seeking instead a “Freeze-for-Freeze” or an end altogether of Iran’s uranium enrichment.  Iran could figure out a way to divert, under the nose of ElBaradei’s inspectors, enriched uranium for bomb-making.  Iran’s fiery President Mahoud Ahmadinejad, now under scrutiny for possibly having Jewish roots, rejected any meddling in Iran’s nuclear program.  Suddenly agreeing to a new plan of shipping off LEU raises more suspicions.  After resisting inspections for years, some U.S. officials see Tehran’s latest efforts as another smokescreen.  Agreeing to allow Russia or France reprocess uranium poses problems for the U.S. in terms of nuclear non-proliferation.  Viewing Iran’s new cooperation neutralizes the Security Council’s attempt to halt Tehran’s atomic program.  Neither Russian nor China would agree now to more sanctions.

            Iran’s new proposal demonstrates fox-like cleverness, preventing Obama from laying down the law.  Now that ElBaradei’s IAEA is involved, Tehran knows it can hide its nuclear ambitions behind the U.N.  Former Bush interim U.N. Ambassador John Bolton sees Tehran’s latest ploy as a cheap trick designed to tie U.S. hands in the Security Council.  Obama’s pressure on Tehran to cease-and-desist enriching uranium by year’s end caused Tehran’s latest move.  “We’re not interested in talking for the sake of talking.  If Iran does not take steps in the near future to live up to its obligations, then the United States will not continue to negotiate indefinitely, and we are prepared to move toward increased pressure,” said Barack, inducing Khamenei and Ahmadinejad to go along with ElBaradei’s prescription.  Once in ElBaradei’s hands the U.S. no longer has much clout.

            Tehran’s sudden change of heart with respect to its uranium enrichment program indicates a clever strategy to neutralize U.S. influence on the Security Council.  Giving Russia, with whom it already has a close business relationship on nuclear issues, more responsibility for Iran’s enriched uranium isn’t a good idea.  Instead of ending Iran’s enrichment program, it opens the door to more nuclear proliferation under the guise of Russian or French supervision. More fissile material doesn’t help those concerned about nuclear proliferation.  Allowing Russia and France to reprocess Iran’s enriched uranium establishes Iran as a major nuclear player, marketing fissile material to the rest of the world.  Regardless of how it’s reprocessed, it’s a matter of time before some rogue nation or terrorist group gets its hand on weapons grade uranium.  Obama shouldn’t play so readily into Ahmadinejad’s hands.

.John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.